Member Info for romaron

"We have witnessed the power of preferred reality over truth these past 4 years & its consequences in the political world.
So it goes with solar & wind. The laws of physics cannot be changed by the dreams of men. I say that as a scientist, not a partisan of oil for I am not." Art Berman
Professor David McKay, late government chief scientific adviser, 11 days before his death in 2016: "Because time is getting thinner and thinner I should call a spade a spade... There is this appalling delusion people have that we can take this thing [renewables] and we can just scale it up and if there is a slight issue of it not adding up, we can just do energy efficiency. Humanity really does need to pay attention to arithmetic and the laws of physics."
Boris Johnson: the UK will become the "Saudi Arabia of wind"-
"good luck exporting wind" Dominic Lawson

To be clear. If there is lift off Russia has knackered fields and equipment which limits them increasing production.. The Saudi's on the other hand will have showroom fresh equipment and fully maintained fields ready. They will gain most market share.

I keep seeing the celebratory reactions of the Saudi Energy minister after the OPEC + meeting finished. On the face of it Saudi Arabia is carrying the major burden of supply control by agreeing to cut most while Russia is given an increase. Now, either both are very good actors or it is not as it seems.
Maybe SA thought they'd have to cut by more or Russia wanted a bigger increase but unlikely imo.
I've just got a feeling that the Saudi's won. Have they got some kind of a hedge by selling Trump buying Biden? If nothing else Trump should be out of the equation.
I'm wondering whether the Saudi's are doing Russia a favour for now? Russia acts tough but could be brassic. There are sanctions on Russia with bans on provision of technology for oil and gas exploration and a ban on provision of credits to Russian oil companies. The Saudi's can be magnanimous because they can afford to. Russia is desperate and expects quid pro quo. The shale threat is tamed but more importantly the timing of keeping supply controlled until March will coincide with the Covid vaccines taking effect. There will be lift off then if the timing is good.
My question is are the Saudi's playing a tactical game. The Russians have to pump like fury to pay the bills whilst making savings by doing minimal maintenance. The Saudi's meanwhile do their maintenance and drilling now to prepare for the return of demand? I don't know enough about Russian oil production but they never show weakness although that aircraft carrier smoking down the English Channel a few years ago spoke volumes to me.
I think the Saudi's have a future commitment from Russia or they're quite happy to see the Russians run their fields and rigs to destruction?
Both will be doing back-flips if the world celebrates the defeat of Covidand and oil could easily be $10 higher then.
I like the Saudi position better.

Curve ball for Therapist (well two actually).

Sunflower and Marigold are heading for FDP. I only mention it because they are owned by Hibiscus Petroleum who are a Malaysian company operating in the North Sea. I'm not the ferret that you but it does require an FPSO.

Something for the future maybe but I do have contacts in the "adult entertainment" business. A cousin of mine owned Halswell House but overextended himself and went bust. He has many "interesting" contacts and is always up for a deal.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2510516/The-bargain-basement-mansion-Historic-house-school-PoW-camp-site-ORGY-goes-sale-just-250-000-owner-went-bust.html

I try to avoid forecasting as my timing is usually pretty poor but in early September I forecast that Brent would be $55 by Q4. As expected I missed it (by a week). I've recalibrated my model with new figures and rechecked my next target of $70 by Summer 2021
I now expect to miss my summer target and don't expect oil to be $70 until the middle of October. I'm sorry I cannot be more exact as in this cold spell my lips get a little chapped and it's not easy getting the spittle on to my finger.

Running short on mousetraps at this bargain price

chilting - I didn't realise that you're a "recreational" smoker.

Hi L7 - I wasn't trying to be a smartass. Just throwing stuff in. I haven't a clue whether I'm even close. Doesn't hurt though to speculate now and then as it sometimes helps gather your own theories. I like some of the signals we're getting. Whether they pupate into a cash cow remains to be seen.

Be lucky

...of course a torpedo could be that it was already sold by EnQuest and it is (say) Vitol doing what they're best at? Fits in with a bit of contango (apparently it takes two). It would be nice if we have to sell it when it reaches Singapore but it may be pre-sold.

The McDaniel summary of forecasts is out as at Jan 1. Just shows how difficult it is to predict. I'd say they're miles out but they are the consultants.

https://mcdan.com/price-forecasts/

L7 (23.40) You may be a "a self certified spreadsh**ter" but you sure know a lot about engineering. I've found that people who give a bit of background are usually pretty circumspect when posting about their speciality. It's easy to own up to a miscalculation if you're not an accountant but when it is something you know about and an area you worked in it's always worth paying attention. You're probably more afraid of being wrong on a technical engineering comment than putting the wrong figure in a column. You are always aware that you're only one gasket away from a potential disaster. I value your contributions in this field as I do ProdOpt's for example. You usually have the humility to caveat with your opinions being subject to the limited information available. It's much simpler to remain ignorant where most of us keep warm.

I've read that injecting bleach kills the carbon bacteria. Combined with heat and light that could be the answer according to an American expert.

L7 (23.40) You may be a "a self certified spreadsh**ter" but you sure know a lot about engineering. I've found that people who give a bit of background are usually pretty circumspect when posting about their speciality. It's easy to own up to a miscalculation if you're not an accountant but when it is something you know about and an area you worked in it's always worth paying attention. You're probably more afraid of being wrong on a technical engineering comment than putting the wrong figure in a column. You are always aware that you're only one gasket away from a potential disaster. I value your contributions in this field as I do ProdOpt's for example. You usually have the humility to caveat with your opinions being subject to the limited information available. It's much simpler to remain ignorant where most of us keep warm.

Nope - I just chose the best home for something which I am treating as cash. Not easy to trade in and out of but rainy day money or saving for something needs that discipline. I think chocolate biscuits should have a lock and key as well. I just think the RB has been mis-valued for yonks.
I think you're ascribing the evaluation that some of the more technical on here use to me and I don't deserve that. I look ahead and prefer the big picture or Occam's law.
BP and Shell shot up the past 2 days. We haven't really joined in but are more agile.
The court case with BP is just dispute resolution. You don't go to court for justice, you go for a decision - elections have a similar role.
Reams of calculations don't impress me when I find my wet finger is often more accurate.
The FTSE is holding up really well whilst ICU's are full and the death rate rising. It isn't valued on today.
I worked in the City for over 30 years. They aren't especially bright but they are especially greedy. The advantages they have are massive so you don't need to be bright. Nobody knows every part of a process but like the electrician having a good idea of what the plumber and plasterer does I worked with bonds and deposits. In my first dealing room the Treasury Manager spent weeks going through the Banker's Almanac and creating limits. Believe it or not but limits were left to the traders until the Herstatt collapse in 1974. There are credit limits for everything and to trade equity without having an elementary understanding is foolhardy. Having said that many credit agencies are overcautious and play to their clients. Once you move out of the investible grades you really are swimming with the sharks. The fact that they cannot grasp EnQuest and are leaving us alone is telling in itself.

Hi PR - It's not faith. The spread is the spread on a thinly traded market. I also make my own assessment and not the snap shot which is the indicated market price. For all I know the professionally traded HYNs dictates the price of the RB. What I do have is flexibility and autonomy of my own funds. Like some here I have added to my cash balances each month because there is basically nothing to spend money on (holidays, meals etc...) I want it to be easily available and slightly safer than the equity but the deposit rates on offer are abysmal. At .67 I am getting a yield to maturity of something like 24.50%. I think it's worth the risk. So its pretty prosaic why I buy the RB. Having said that when I need money I sometimes sell something else and just keep the RB. My average is .42 so it has looked after me. I even sold some of my beloved Costco to keep the RB. I think techs and safe harbours have had their time in the sun for now.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/ENQ1/enquest-plc/company-page

Encouraging

The Saudi Energy Minister seemed one happy bunny. It was celebratory. Tomorrow could be whoosh!

Thanks for the heads up hitman. Riveting.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/ENQ1/enquest-plc/company-page

That's my memory for you. I bought them on the 29th, settlement 31/12 not 24th. I tried for about 3 days to get them but no order was filled until I paid the top. Not surprising really when you see the volume. It is a shame because these numbers are as important as the share price and relate to credit rating. They are in lock-step with the HYN which (total guess) has similar low volumes. However, the overall trend is important and is steadily rising even after taking the accrual interest into account. At least you don't suffer day traders in the RB or a glut of AT.
Guessing again but I think the HYNs are now in the hands of funds that play in distressed debt and they are quite happy to let the position run. They'll creep up by a combination of accrual gains and the fact that the company is recovering. They could be well placed if any fun & games do start but for the moment they have all the excitement of a savings account. They are though an undeniable indicator but a tad lagging as you can see.

Damn you KO - that was me. 1 -0 to you. This might cheer you up

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/ENQ1/enquest-plc/company-page

It hasn't shown my modest purchase of 8,938 on 24th @ 67 timed 09.29.27 but maybe it'll appear tomorrow. I track this and the HYN because at some stage we'll see some heavier trading. The HYN closed at 68.11 today (67.341 31/12) and the RB closed at 66.25 on 31/12.
The Dow is down 500 and it is Trump related likely. Some normality (reality?) will return later this month.

Stop torturing the RCF. If no new deals arrive then it is a steady quite predictable trading forecast. Oil looks steady with upward pressure. In a few months they can do a simple kinda factoring operation (hitman will know more) as they've done before. The risk of the RCF is nothing like the bond maturities that sank PMO. In this pandemic era a shortfall of this size, with the asset backing and better trading conditions will not tax the company.
In fact I'd say that they've done remarkably well to bring it home almost on time. A surge in oil could even mean early repayment. Front end trading (which is what this will be) is considered less risky and there are mature markets that do it all day long (hitman again). In 3 months time maturity (of RCF) will be 6 month. In 6 month maturity will be 3 months for those mentally challenged. The RCF is only an issue on message boards. I think (and hope) the company is concentrating on projects and finance needs a bit further ahead.

*I covered trade bills and ECGD finance in another life but only the borrowing/lending. The sophisticated stuff was done by the credits department which is why I will bow to hitman's greater knowledge in the mechanics. I just know there's a huge market for just this type of deal.