Member Info for romaron

I'm not a scientist like you chilting but I understand many poor people die from inefficient energy anyway. For example those using charcoal in poorly ventilated accommodation. Shanty towns are a good example. On balance they will choose the energy we don't seem to want.

Why are you here chilting? You don't believe in oil so why not invest in wind farms or is EnQuest a hedge?

Life never exchanges higher for lower net energy except when it is dying.

The investment community does not write DNA code.

Hydrogen is quite likely as long as it remains tied with the other most common thing in the universe.

"Apart from hydrogen, the most common thing in the universe is stupidity."
--Harlan Ellison (1985)

Still true 35 years later.

It is human nature to do so and often the underdog in the global warming debate could easily be the oil industry.

On one side the greens. The ESG lobby that has Government support (often reluctant) but politicians don't wish to alienate large sections of the voter base and plough a middle channel. Energy can have bad side effects but the alternative is even worse for many. It has lifted billions out of poverty and ensured them a better life. Yet still 800m people go to bed hungry every day, many, many more die each day from poverty than Covid (50,000per day 18m) and 3.8bn people live on less than $2 a day. It isn't global warming killing them! I'm not saying global warming doesn't exist but we run the risk of treating the poorer countries as collateral damage whilst the richer countries assuage their conscience on what some say is unproven science.

My team: Art Berman, Jeff Currie, Guehring & Rozencwajg, and Adam Waterous
https://plattslive.com/media_topics/listen-as-production-falls-the-bearish-case-for-us-oil/

There is going to be an oil shortage. The usually gung-ho Yanks will be nursing their shale wounds for many years. Interesting that the carbon intensity of Canadian oil sands is lower now than the US average (source the podcast above). The majors will continue to unload sub-scale and end of life fields. Their business model is different to ours and it isn't personal. EnQuest will never be loved but not all institutions are slave to indexes or trackers. FCF is the holy grail and I expect many will hold their nose and BUY oil stocks because of this. Those just below the majors were hardest hit so the survivors will get the biggest benefit when the eventual bounce back begins.

Mouse trap this way >

I'd say that the Astra Zeneca news is a game changer. The second dose 12 weeks later will mean that more vaccinations can be made and the first dose gives pretty good protection. It is far more user friendly than the Pfizer one. The trial I was on for Novavax/King's is almost ready too and I understand there were no adverse reactions from phase 3. Not sure where Moderna fits in but we have Covid surrounded. It's a coin toss whether I am vaccinated or had the placebo. They won't unblind me until I am eligible for a jab.
I'll call my pal later and see what the news from Essex is (his daughter is a sister at a large hospital in Essex).

I'm always the optimist but this is really good news.

Stay safe.

Good title Tarmak. What I expect:
Paying interest on Bonds so expect oil above $65. Reason shale doesn't work at the $57 (not even close) average we had in 2019.
Continuing avoidance of oil stocks as institutions reduce from 27% of investor controlled stocks to 20% by 2030 [ESG narrative and avoidance of controversy]
US oil in freefall continuing. Trump did us a favour in 2016 9m bpd. Pushed it to c.13m and expect 9.5m end 2021. More importantly it is unlikely that European majors will dive in if it reaches $70.
Retail Bond to be around par by end 2021.
"Carbon intensity" to be new buzz word. We are heading for a 10 year period of falling oil production. Flexibility will be needed and that is something EnQuest has in bucketloads.
Talking of marriage I imagine we have quite a few suitors attracted by our dowry [tax losses. public company quote and decent production] I expect us to reject their blandishments. We aren't desperate unlike some of our so called "peers".

Thanks HM - and of course some just won't have the jab for a variety of reasons but protecting the over 80's will remove the main threat to the NHS. Once the over 80 cohort reaches maximum (or near as) immunity the whole picture changes. It gets technical here and mathematicians and epidemiologists will know what percentage is needed to safely say that they've reached the target but its probably not 100 percent. Not the same but experts suggest that 70% of the population need to become infected to achieve herd immunity. I'm guessing but expect similar for immunisation but of course 80 year olds interact with many other groups.
Covid is weakening anyway from what I've read. In a flu epidemic those who get it first get the most lethal attack.
There is the (my) optimistic hope that the Govt have over compensated but the target is achievable. Once the media change the narrative we should see a strong market response. "Plane lands safely" just doesn't have the same attention grabbing headline as disaster news. Maybe the Tier movements in the future will always be down.

Thanks for the link.

Looking good for a sharp rise in the share price. Not sure if I'm on Therapist's naughty step but I am bullish for the market and especially EnQuest.
Brexit is apparently done and will give the markets a boost but I think it's Covid that will make the biggest impact. Most people I talk to cannot wait to book a holiday. I heard on the news that 600,000 in the UK have had their first vaccine jab and immunity starts to kick in within 12 days. There wasn't a breakdown on who received the jab but the death toll with Covid on the certificate will drop off a cliff in a month. I know they're not all over 80 but if they were 600,000/365 is 1,643 a day. Sadly there isn't a vaccine to prevent death from old age but it shouldn't have Covid as cause of death on the death certificate in a month's time. The winter is always unkind to the old.
We each do our own research and trust our own experiences. Somethings to think about. My daughter (in the bubble) had a temperature and I took her to Lea Valley centre on Wednesday. We zipped through pretty quickly at 8.30 a.m and as we were finished and shepherded through my daughter looked at the form she'd been given. "My name's not Mary" she exclaimed. Had a stewards and had to go around again. This took another 30 minutes as it was getting busy. Result is negative. My next door neighbours all have Covid. They have 2 young children (7/10) which is likely source but were always blasé about the rules. Say its like a bad cold. Night nurse is adequate. One of my best pals daughter is a senior nurse and is incensed that the Govt didn't make more use of Nightingale hospitals. She says the Govt actions are too protect the NHS and are clumsy. The Govt are trying to micro-manage the plague but TBF it is learning as you go. They all had Covid.
Overall I see us winning and results will come through in the next few weeks. Obviously Christmas will create a bulge in cases because some will always behave selfishly (you could make a weak argument that they are speeding-up herd-immunity). All personal opinion but I think we have the disease surrounded and are whittling it down.

That's the best Christmas present I could wish for.

Good health and a prosperous New Year to all LTH's

*long chat with another investor. He's convinced that absence of Director buying is evidence that a deal is imminent.

chilting Wed 22.03 - you do spout a lot of nonsense. Just quoting numbers without any reference is simply a waste of time but as it is the time of goodwill I'll put some perspective on it.
BP (2.99) and RDSB (4.05) also have stock on loan as at November 20. Some will say what's the relevance so I'll concentrate on our "peers" as helpfully mentioned by Linda Cook in the Harbour 17 Dec webcast.
Stock on Loan as at Nov (shorts in brackets current) in percentages
Cairn 5.22
Diversified G&O 8.98
Energean 2.83 (.61)
Tullow 12.91 (7.59)
PMO 16.96 (11.46) *I've taken the liberty of including PMO. It would have spoilt her narrative but deserves to be included.

You'll notice that SOL is always larger than any large shorts over half %. That is to be expected. A quite simple trade is to buy the bonds and hedge by shorting the equity. It often works (ARCM with PMO) and has with EnQuest too. The cost of borrowing shares is tiny but you have the benefit (even if PIK) of a coupon return (7% ENQ). Get the timing right and you're on a winner. We know equity can explode upwards but how long have we been waiting? If you're making money then why cut the position? That is why SOL is there. A few naked shorts but basically the result of a successful hedging trade.
The importance is that we have no large specific shorts.
Taking the peer group inc. PMO the average of SOL is 9.38. Including BP and Shell makes it 7.70. There are other times to short a company and it could be a hedge against buying oil for instance. Never underestimate a quant guy too clever for his own good.

I'm not concerned by the current Stock on Loan so why mention it?

Hi PR - I did the same a few days ago. We are talking about the notifiable shorts of above a half percent. I was a little peeved that Marshall Wace spoiled my subject which was gonna be "no shorts for over 2 years". 1 year and 9 months doesn't quite have the same ring about it.
I know you have an interest in the bonds too and normally you'd expect a couple of shorts that were arbitrages or positions against bonds and we don't even have them (PMO still have a couple that aren't shorts in the message board sense).
I think it's a combination of the blocking position that AB has with around 15% of the equity. Debt is currently not a threat so there isn't much that hedgies can do without getting rebuffed and bruised. However, it is also a reason many funds AVOID because they prefer being in the herd and don't trust individualism. Throw in the relentless ESG narrative and you can see why many companies in the sector have become "bargepole" stocks.
I can see why the Harbour people are promoting their stock as a FTSE250 after officially merging because that means a few funds will have no option but to BUY as they are index and tracker funds. I think AB sees this as a time of opportunity. Sub-scale is lazy business school talk and a company like ours is hard to pigeon hole. Next year is going to be interesting.

*Tried to pick up some RB at 66.50 today. Not touched.

That's me. With a leap and a bound Cairn escapes the sub-scale camp. Don't think so. If the money was sitting in an escrow account I'd start getting excited. Watch 4.40 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdjTi-uhoqI

AB is an entrenched and implacable holder imo and I doubt he would willingly give up the reins whoever approached. There are plenty of examples where countries have ignored court decisions and we (the UK) have already ignored an international arbitration from 2008 with Iran over £400m for Chieftain tanks. The US also refuses to return a lot of Iranian money. I cannot see Modi (another populist) upsetting his base by releasing funds to an ex-colonial based company. He may be anti-Muslim but I suspect he'd quickly use something like the Iran situation to claim 'precedent'.

Some of these cases take decades to finally arbitrate (if ever) and the r.o.w. is aware of the hypocrisy involved.

*In the early 80's I was in the Bank America ECU dealing room after hours and was shown a several metres long telex that was taken up buy mostly by harangues with terms like "spittle-licking capitalist dogs" and finished with "roll over $50 mio for 6 months, $150m for 3months etc...." Also Ali an Iranian restaurant owner friend keeps on about another debt we owe concerning Concorde. I've no idea if its true but that's not the point; he believes it and it goes back decades as well. With Iranians it is as though the Shah only died last year!

Perhaps it best that we leave Europe if we're gonna gloat about our superior decision making. That's why they love us so much.

Are they? I read that they are using the same one as us for now. You know - the one discovered in Germany by two doctors of Turkish origin and manufactured in Belgium.

I agree on the pandemic spin but "a few mistakes" on (a) Brexit treaty? He clearly can't multi-task. There's a list as long as your arm that predicted the ball up that is Brexit. You can't say he wasn't forewarned. It is literally one mishap after another.
Not sure what I'm gonna do with my "sovereignty" once I get it. Will it make me happier or better looking?

Have a heart BT. That is cruel word to use for genuine victims who have birth defects and learning difficulties. Our PM has had a life of privilege which unfortunately didn't transfer into competence. Only a suggestion but perhaps describing him as a "fabulist" might be better at this time of the year.

36,082 @ 11.2759

Now for the next sofa.

KO - No Govt could survive excessive deaths and society wouldn't allow it. The virus is doing what viruses do. It isn't getting stronger (they actually weaken gradually) just spreading quicker. Like parasites- the idea is not to wipe out the whole human race. Some argue that these are the death throes of a pandemic and this particular virus. The impact will be lessening in a few weeks and the market will rebound. Impossible to time but I'm adding.

Hi KO - you are right but those catching Covid won't be dying. The media is presently painting a disaster picture. I'm scraping around for some cash to buy some shares. It will be a different picture next month. Fancied PMO as looking overdone. Goldman picked up around 5 percent of PMO on Friday. Hardly moved the price but when you consider that 5 percent of 5 percent is more like a quarter of 1 per cent it kinda makes sense. I'm a tad concerned that the narrative from the PMO webcast is making us look "sub-scale" whatever that means. We wish for Institutional money and it looks like Harbour are gonna get it before us. We need to differentiate ourselves from the pack as PMO are doing for fast lift-off.

In a past life (FX) Goldman often appeared to have "got it wrong". They were more interested in getting size done and if you looked at it a few days later they got it right more often than wrong.

"The moment sperm meets egg, we join the queue for death. Humans are the one species who know our fate well in advance. Our mortality rate will always be 100 percent; it's how we die that matters. Some people were taken well before their time by Covid, but the median age of Covid death is 82.4 years."
"The chances of having short or long-term serious side effects for existing vaccines is roughly one in 25,000. The chances of having life-threatening side effects is roughly one in 1,000,000. This compares to one in 250 and one in 10,000 for a course of antibiotics, making vaccines roughly 100 times safer to take than, say, penicillin. And much less harmful than lockdown."
Source Private Eye and BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54433305
The fear of Covid is overdone and once the most vulnerable are vaccinated we will soon return to normal. Hospitals will have excess capacity for Covid patients. People die. It's when they all do it at once that causes the problem. I'm not being callous but this is a financial message board. I wish I had more free cash. We are nearing the end of the pandemic.

Here's a potential Grey Swan: Google "FSO Safer"

Hi Jennifer (Sun 11.54) - another way of looking at it, well spotted. It was interesting that whilst they were nervously trying not to give forward guidance Linda Cook did exactly that with the FTSE 150 quote. It is of course a wet finger in the air as we have no idea what the oil price will be or lasting damage from Covid when the merger is complete. I think what we have is a marker for now and it looks like this is the base with lots of upside potential. Problem is it will be how Harbour does rather than PMO and we are in the minds of Goldman and ilk already subsumed into it imo. A 5% shareholding in PMO would normally have a big impact. Instead it is a quarter of 1 percent in the big picture. Today looks like a buying opportunity.