Member Info for romaron

I spoke on the telephone to the doctor running my trial. I had 2 questions. If I'm offered a vaccination before my next appointment (9 Feb) will they unblind me? If I have had the vaccination (not placebo) I would decline the offer but would like evidence that I'd had a vaccine because I believe that it may be a requirement for travel and I am desperate to squeeze in a skiing holiday. He said it could be touch and go for me because he believes my group (I'm 71) will get the jab in January.
He believes we'll need at least 6 different vaccines and we still don't know for how long they give you immunity. Only time will tell here but other vaccines have lasted decades. It is unlike flu in that it doesn't mutate anywhere near as quickly so that is a bonus because if it lasts you won't have to have a jab every year.
He was quite chatty and said it only fair as I'd given up my time to participate. Now this bit is interesting. The doctors and scientists are very collegiate and help each other out with few secrets held back. I asked about China and India and their efforts. He started with the fact that as they make most of the vaccines anyway giving them an advantage. China more than India because testing/trialling is far more complicated in India due to logistics/infrastructure weaknesses.
What he thought was a bit cheeky is that China is already shipping vaccines around the world before they are approved. Call it early mover advantage or what you like but it makes commercial sense(look away now chilting) . They are just cheaper and better at this sort of thing . The USA moved a lot of their manufacturing there for commercial reasons and started whingeing when they [China] could not only do it cheaper but often better than them.
I think Covid will be beaten earlier than Governments are saying. Only Trump would claim victory now but he probably wouldn't be wrong. The world economies will bounce back very soon imo.

Be Lucky

300 homes in Fife are to get their heating and cooking needs met by pure hydrogen. Boilers and cookers will be made available free of charge. This has been made possible by our beneficence, the taxpayer. First homes to be connected by 2022 with the trial initially running for four and a half years. It is being run by SGN the gas network who won the funding from the energy regulator.
The cost is £28m with the bulk coming from Ofgem (£25m) and the Scottish government (£7m)*
I am probably missing something here as a quick calculation suggests that each home will cost just shy of £100,000 (£93.3k actually) to enjoy the benefits of hydrogen?
Prices will come down they say. Well, they surely cannot go higher. Personally I think it's a small price to pay for the government to get the energy lobby off their back and to be seen to be doing something. There are certainly some challenges ahead to get the price down. My suggestion is that with cash being less popular because of Covid we could heat these homes by burning £20 notes.

*Scotland is subsidised by other parts of the UK according to the Barnett Formula which is largely funded by London.

Source: yesterday's Times.

Hi Pelle - well Art agrees with you:

"The economy runs on oil. Perhaps a major energy transition has begun in which the role of oil will be progressively diminished in coming decades. Markets do not think in decades. I am surprised that this opportunity for profit is apparently missed or ignored by investors. The market knows that investment is needed immediately. The consequences of ignoring what the market knows may be economically disastrous for a struggling world economy."

https://www.artberman.com/2020/12/01/how-high-will-oil-prices-go-what-the-market-knows/

To conclude. What I'm saying is that a temporary softer spot oil price doesn't mean that oil isn't going higher in the near future. You might say what about the futures etc.. that aren't soaring. The financial world and oil market is run by pragmatists. They ain't in a hurry and quite happy to wait to ensure the Covid measures work. As always it's about timing.

You lost me there chilting. Historical indicators always lag or state the bleedin' obvious in my experience. In investing I look forward usually and research financials to my limited abilities but benefit from some excellent information from certain posters here in areas I'm not so sure of.
If you thought oil was going up in 6 months lets suppose you buy oil outright. In a swap the price maker to cover needs to buy oil unless it is a producer who doesn't need to cover. There isn't a regular 6 month outright market so the price maker buys the oil on the spot market because that can move fastest and is the biggest risk in the transaction. He now has a 6m risk which he protects with a swap; selling and buying the oil against dollars (could be other currencies or even other commodities (never underestimate a hedge funder with a PhD).
What happens if enough people do this is that the swap keeps going higher. The futures and options move in the same direction. I chose swaps because I know them best from my FX days and much larger amounts are involved. Nobody in this exercise is thinking of the spot as they largely cancel each other out but as the 6m goes higher you might see the 3m and 9m go higher. If they've read the market right you'll see the swaps moving higher with the spot deals cancelling each other out or occasionally see the spot go lower. As you go forward the oil price gradually goes higher and you kinda wait for the spot to catch up. Things don't happen overnight.
Currencies under pressure are often awash with liquidity at the front end as getting the timing right is impossible. It doesn't last. I doubt oil is any different. Eventually the market finds a new level - maybe a few load up ships with the front end surplus oil and arbitrage that way.
That's my thinking anyway and I could easily be wrong about POO but I've placed my bets.

Put the curtains up in the shed; now going to jet wash the greenhouse. I'm gonna call it a conservatory on Airbnb.

Possibly nonsensical but bear with me. This could be a time of a phoney-war. Financial markets are in someways a parasite on human endeavour and follow rather than dictate what people actually do. On these boards the longs are usually premature (or wrong) and the day-traders play these gaps between potential and actual. The world is coming around to seeing light at the end of the tunnel but with several false starts is noticeably cautious.
Explode is what we hope for but it's usually a gradual inflation. In the old days the prop traders would understand that they'd never get the timing spot on but would gradually position so that they were in the right place should it "explode". Call it a "feeling in my water" but I think some smart money is positioning for when this does move. The Brent futures are really flat and they are literally tied into the spot which with the present supply balance gives no cause for alarm. A flat Brent curve should also be a signal of uncertainty. So many false starts they have joined chilting on the fence.
The financial markets are in the main risk avoiding and often late to the feast. Bond markets are much larger than equity markets and control the finance to an extent so they rule.
I'm not surprised that we're flat but the summer of 1940 had many sunny clear skies; until July. I doubt we'll "explode" but when realisation arrives FOMO will come into play and a steady increase is on the cards. It's fine saying Goldman's said this/that but analysts are much more pragmatic with an bond/equity view because that's how the real world operates. They are also fully aware that Goldman's are often wrong and quoting their book. More to the point, they [Goldman's] are small in the global sense and oil is THE global commodity.
The real world is very risk averse and goes for 'sure-things' which really means you should only invest in gilts. You will never get a clamour for out of favour stocks but that doesn't mean the real world is right. It missed Covid for example.
In FX terms I suspect we will be surprised at how quickly we revert back to normal. Oil production has been severely wounded and will not keep up. There is often what appears to be a lot of liquidity around before the healing process and fever attacks. It just seems that we are preparing for lift off but probably won't really notice it until we look into the real mirror.

Build it and they will come

My $55 by Q4 ( 7 Sept) might still be achievable.

Tourette syndrome does not impair intelligence so you cannot use that excuse Ammu. Sadly, there is no cure at present but we remain hopeful for the future. Good luck.

Ammu 18.27 - there is a possible treatment. These outbursts which seem uncontrollable and with no basis in fact indicate your condition is worsening. Seek help. It is for your own good. We are worried about you.

Hi KO - that's a bit unkind to Ammu. He may be stupid but his deramping is so amateurish it brings welcome humour to this message board. Of course it may be more serious and he could have a rare form of financial Tourettes. He rarely says anything intelligible so perhaps our sympathy should be offered instead?

Agree Pelle. Easier and quicker for public demand to accelerate than oil production. Personally I'm desperate for a meal out, a haircut, a holiday, a drink, meet friends, a reason to drive out other than just for exercise. Walking from and around home does become a little monotonous and I've tarted my garden shed up so much that I'm thinking of advertising it on Airbnb.

Thanks for the heads up MrD "Selling production is selling assets " - such insight. Time to divest of any oil company that hedges or sells oil. Does that include Shell and BP?

This might help. Liverpool are trying to keep Wijnaldum whose contract ends next summer. Nothing is set in stone but most deals don't wait until maturity and I'd expect discussions to complete around March/April regarding the SFA. In fact informal discussions are always ongoing. The Sculpture type deal is only one avenue. We know that there is a kinda balance in the supply/demand of oil but around that time Covid should be in full retreat and demand will take off. I doubt production will be able to match it. Loan providers also compete to lend and if criteria is achieved with a backdrop of higher oil then we should get a good deal. Fixating on the existing situation can only give a backdrop of where we are today. Thinking 6 months ahead we will have a higher oil price and lenders can form an orderly queue. In fact I don't expect that to happen because I expect there'll be fresh deals that will be part of any financial restructuring. Not out of weakness but planning for the future. If nothing changes (impossible imo) then bond negotiation will begin (say) 2 years from now. In fact if we are flat because oil is $45 and below $65 then we can only repay SFA. I'm with PRDaynes and Pelle on this.
I hope we do raise bonds in a year or two because they won't be to pay off existing debt but to finance new projects/deals.
We aren't in the mess that TLW and PMO are today but it has been touch and go for EnQuest in the recent past. However, we still get lumped with them because of misunderstandings over our debt. The HYN's are with vulture funds and they will happily exit as they improve and the same for the RB which moves in lock-step but I'm not sure who holds the bulk of them.
Friday RB 63.625 HYN 63.909

hi Shax - I don't even think it's the main event. This is though - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-55105934

The timing at a Thanksgiving weekend? A pro-Israel President who wanted to bomb Iran only a week ago and is possibly certifiable. I don't think I'm being clairvoyant by saying Israel is behind this and they won't move without US blessing. It took up half an hour of CNN news so somebody out there is giving it importance. I realise it might be a slow news day but I cannot believe that oil hasn't surged. Perhaps that was why they chose a long holiday weekend for the assassination. I'll be very surprised if things are quieter Monday. Trump is doing everything in his power to complicate the transition of power. I cannot see this turning out well. I wonder if Saudi Arabia was advised?
It says in the report that Trump was warned that a strike could lead to a broader conflict in the region. So he can plead ignorance of this attack on a sovereign nation. Nobody believes that the Iranians will swallow that. It will end badly for all those involved.

A rising tide lifts all boats and you wouldn't be invested here if you didn't think the price of oil is going higher. BP looks attractive and you'll get a dividend. PMO is sorting out its problems and Tullow have a new team. I saw that TLW was falling and their bonds were going in the other direction. I decided to look at their CMD presentation of the 25th. It is 2.15.17 long and after a short while slitting my wrists was looking the better option. I flicked through and listened to QA. I decided I'd pass as an investment because it looks to me like a RI is coming and the bond holders will take their pound of flesh. It's what is behind the scenes and as always money rules. However, it wasn't all wasted as it got me thinking.
The Tullow CEO likes a 50/50 split between bank lending and bonds. We soon won't have the existing RCF and the bonds will be at a guess; $500m by the time we need to renegotiate. People become obsessed that debt should be zero. That is seldom the case and debt is your friend as an ex-Chairman of ours said with the qualification that you must explore out of equity, develop out of debt. We have lost a year because of Covid but are back on track. A further $10 increase in oil is not inconceivable and we would be throwing off cash.
So why EnQuest? Because of the CEO and his personal investment. The foundation and our strong presence in Malaysia. Debt is not a problem and we can grow organically with Bressay a live option. I think AB is his own man and wants to leave a legacy. That will ensure he continues to drive the company forward to fulfill his dreams. We'll need to borrow more as we will have tie-ins, infills and new developments. We have enough in the pipeline to keep us going forward whilst I feel sure the past year will throw up some very interesting propositions. I think the market and the banks will like that.

Build it and they will come

Welcome back Modestus - interestingly whilst you alerted me to G&R it was Pelle who directed me toward Art Berman who also follow G&R. His tweet of 24 Nov suggests he doesn't agree with the G&R reasons for the deterioration of shale productivity but they are both heading in the same direction. I listened into the G&R video conference of 18 Nov (see my post 24 Nov) and you didn't miss much because their narrative is very consistent and the links you provided has most of the content they used.

Be Lucky

Hi Therapist - always enjoy your posts. They may have an aversion to interest rates but they like a punt

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/260497/anasuria-hibiscus-revenues/

Hi Squif - I have no idea what is happening behind the scenes but it has to be something because otherwise, what is the point of AB? What we can be sure of is that under the guise of "transition" there are continual approaches and pitches from a variety of companies. Our refinancing (SCF) isn't desperate so that is not at the fore but I would imagine it could be wrapped into the next deal. No oil company has really come out of this stronger but we are (I believe) one of those that proved their resilience. Our tax credits/losses are a major attraction and can be the clincher in deals that would be unprofitable a or not attract financing for our competitors.
We have an experienced and seasoned team that have kept their head down for the past year. That was sensible and now is the time to consider the next step. We will do well whatever happens. Increase reserves organically and develop Bressay is least risky but that doesn't preclude a new deal.
I think shale has been put back in its box and this explanation is as good as any I've read: http://gorozen.com/
read "Where has Shale productivity Gone?.
The retail Bond and HYN are at parity (62.75) and with our current debt profile I think buying them is a no-brainer. That will leach into the equity.
I'm a very happy bunny today.

Ammu reverts back to type after short spell pretending to be an investor.

Nov 4 "If Biden wins04 Nov 2020 18:22
I expect oil to fall $5 and enq to be in the 8’s...

But you can see the move Jan. It actually is flat because it balances the $40m SCF early repayment. The PIK is part of the bonds and almost 3 years away from maturity. The only pressing debt is the SCF and even that is 10 months away. In fact they may not be legally allowed to pay interest on the bonds under $65 a barrel.
Their hedging is nothing to write home about but the hedging horizons are relatively short so maybe they'll have a windfall in another period.
Another investor I talk to was less than impressed by the banality of the RNS. I think it is a good RNS for the times we are enduring. I doubt the management are just waiting out the downturn and wouldn't be surprised to see an announcement. AB isn't buying and that could be a clue.

Even better. I'm already in 2021 but the bonds maturities are 2 years and 10 months away.