Member Info for romaron

It is perhaps a more fortunate destiny to have a taste for collecting shells than to be born a millionaire. -Robert Louis Stevenson, novelist, essayist, and poet (13 Nov 1850-1894)

I'm sure there's a truth in it but on balance I think I'd rather have been born a millionaire and moved into shell collecting later.
Don't normally dwell on such thoughts so it may be a side effect of Jan's clever pills.

I see you're back on the pills Jan.

Patience is also a form of action. -Auguste Rodin, sculptor (12 Nov 1840-1917)

Hi spin - I think the annotation of buy/sell is irrelevant here. Rules are followed and both sides are happy to report the trade after close of business. In a tricky market the number of players in this sort of trade can probably be counted on one hand. It might be more than one participant and the broker has put in a total. We know that ARCM, Chrysaor and PMO have been in intense discussions. Lawyers could be involved and this is more a concluding deal and the price might be neutral if it includes changes in debt holdings. The list goes on. Jumping on a subjective buy/sell feeds our need to understand but in actual fact means very little if you don't have the whole picture.
We might (or might not) get a RNS for change of holding but it is getting very technical now and only the professionals will have a true understanding. I certainly don't.

We'll have to study tomorrow's update but I doubt we'll be much the wiser. I'm scratching around for hints at what it means to EnQuest.

The PMO Retail Bond seems locked in and holders will get around a 30 percent haircut once the proposed deals go through. Even if it's only sentiment it might have an adverse effect on our RB. The PMO is now 6month money whilst ours is 3 years away. We also don't really have a problem with the RCF and if oil stays in the doldrums there are at least 3 options from which to decide. Our situation isn't dire but PMO is fresh in people's minds which is holding us back imo. I'll be glad to see a successful end to the PMO saga as I think it has dragged us down with it.

*a single trade of 32 mio went through on PMO and posted after market closed. Tomorrow's update should be informative.

Mind you- if it turns out it was an AB Buy then my pal's theory goes up in smoke. I'm reasonably confident there'll be a 60p party but with the OO and RI I think a 40p party can be argued more appropriate. I'm pretty sure we'll be surprised by what individuals are like in person. I wouldn't claim wise thoughts but have a weak claim to some understanding of markets and being a one-eyed man in a largely blind world. Markets are just unpredictable but basic human nature isn't. I think Trump has proven how easily people are manipulated and none of us are immune.

Afraid not GD- a much more modest 50k. Whilst we'd all like to know what's behind a trade we're never gonna get a definitive answer. We weren't at the races today but selling EnQuest and buying PMO or TLW would have been rewarding. We aren't as exciting as some of the other stocks but we're in good hands I feel.
Another investor who worked/works in the oil industry is convinced that AB not buying is clear evidence that we're up to something. I had a quick glance and the last Director Buy was by Howard Paver on 4 May and AB Foundation 27 April. There could be something in it but pointless holding your breath.

I blame the Algos KO. Whatever is powering PMO and to a lesser extent TLW seems to have bypassed EnQuest but I doubt it. The algos work like a casino and are relentlessly picking up tiny amounts of profit. It means like all good bookies they have to lay-off or in posher parlance "hedge". Or even arbitrage. It is regular in FX to borrow or lend one currency (say JPY) for a period and swap it out for USD. You cancel out the JPY and are left with a USD deposit or loan. Nothing personal against JPY and if you are a swap trader you may not know whether it is deposit/loan related or a currency hedge etc. So they may have made (say) .60 of a point on PMO but hedged out to another stock (ENQ?) losing (say .40).
I bought some EnQuest today at 11.47 with my usual impeccable timing.
The reason was that this is a market hungry for any signal and so far all we know is that PMO have a trading update tomorrow. The algos know this too. It may all unwind but this wasn't my reason for buying.
The RB is doing better but the HYN jumped by almost 7 points so I just piggy-backed off them. I may be wrong but I think our sell off was to do with the unusual gains on PMO.
Our HYN's outperformed TLW as well although maturity dates don't match but are a decent wet finger in the air.
It is annoying but don't get sucked into message board hysteria.

Sorry Jan - was it you?

MEGA

Hi Therapist - I nicked it from spin. Making EnQuest Great Again.

I think this time we really have got traction. Moving from Bonds to Stocks is the best signal yet. Real money rather than retail investors with their reluctance to sell aren't the best indicators and the day punters ridiculous chanting just irritates. i've made a serious attempt to find fault with EnQuest and failed. The US elections have demonstrated the importance of oil and that it isn't going away in a hurry. Biden is a blessing in disguise to lenders and majors who want to be rid of shale clingons.
From the link I gave earlier "Since Q3, 2014, capital expenditures on shale plays have exceeded cash flow 19 quarters in a row (Rassenfoss, 2019). see4.8
I don't think I'm guilty of irrational exuberance.

MEGA

One of the best Bloomberg headlines I read yesterday was "Bond sell Off". As financial tectonic plates moved and risk was lessened the prime bonds were sold because their safe haven status was no longer as necessary. This in anticipation of the Covid vaccine which is still months away from mass inoculation. We are coming out of the storm and there will be a search for income and capital appreciation. There is a wall of money looking for a home. I note that our Retail Bond has done well today and is another augury for the rerating that I feel is due for EnQuest.

*I read this today and it gives an impartial assessment of energy, debt and their relationship.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800919310067#bib0470
One thing that did knock me back was this little snippet "In Scandinavia, a home mortgage may now carry a below-zero interest rate (Coogan, 2019b)." See 6.5

Is this true?

MEGA

For the technically minded the second jab is referred to by the doctors and nurses as "a booster". Could be my imagination but a rule of thumb (unscientific) seems to be that 28 days is considered a success.

Had a good day today. Too many had written them off but the concentration was on the front of the plane and the impact zoom had on business travel. Well, there was some excellent analyses at the weekend and what is irreplaceable is the sun and the beach that they facilitate to economically reach and the excellent value offered by foreign hotels and restaurants.
There is pent up demand and next year will explode imo. It also applies to skiing holidays which I declare an interest in and for some the joys of ocean cruising.
We're gonna have a good Q4.

MEGA

I had my second jab today (21 days). Whilst waiting for reaction time (half hour) I listened to the Pfizer news and used it to elicit responses from doctors and nurses. My trial is a week or so behind Pfizer. The Astra Zeneca had one bad reaction that was later proven to be Covid unrelated. I asked that if Pfizer offers me a vaccine would I be able to take it? The response was "yes", but I would have to have a clear week between it and taking another Covid vaccine. If I was offered another vaccine they would then legally have to tell me whether I had had the vaccine or the placebo. I asked if I was one of the last to be trialled? No, the cohort they are testing are more or less simultaneous. I went for the AZ trial but failed the blood pressure test and I used this to say it was very similar to what happened with Novavax. There are subtle differences no doubt but to me as a layman they are the same. Their response was that all trials work this way.
It is clear to me that there are many vaccines coming to the end of stage 3 trialling. We forget that a lot of work went on in laboratories and to reach this stage so quickly (and safely) is amazing.
I have to return in 2 weeks (35 days) for further monitoring.
The message is clear to me. We have vaccines and they ain't rocket science to the medical fraternity. Bleach does kill them and the solutions are quite well known and not all cost billions. A man eating tiger loose from a zoo is quite dangerous but the solution might be a stronger padlock.

I thought this was the answer chilting https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1325860421174251520/photo/1

I'm out most of the day so won't be able to follow this up so perhaps somebody else has more time.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/43ZF/provident-financial-plc/company-page

This is the bond that they part tendered in August. It could be a misprint or is it now back to par? I expected it to be par(ish) and would expect it to be heading towards 105. It is very good news for share holders and a check on the current price would be informative.

What are you on about chilting? You want to take expensive renewable energy and use it to create even more expensive energy to replace what we already have. You are obviously a very rich man to whom price is irrelevant or one of Greta's acolytes.
In medieval times they called this Alchemy so carry on looking for a fossil replacement that matches or comes very close to the cost of fossil fuel. I remember the truckers protesting in 2000 at 80p a litre. Your solution is to offer them green (as in greenback I suppose) hydrogen at say £3 a litre. Good luck with that.
Meanwhile China and India will keep building coal fueled power plants to make steel that is moved around the world by diesel. They realise that moving from a higher source of energy to a lower source is economic suicide but they'll continue to make the products that we have become over-sensitive to. I mean, California loves electricity but sources most of it from coal powered plants in neighbouring states (as does Tesla). It's only an extension of that hypocrisy I suppose.

Good luck with the proselytising but don't waste it on me.

Nice video chilting. Impressed by the camerawork and the new paint but what was the point of it? I suppose it's nice to know that our taxes are subsidising renewable energy but is this a "forever" tax?
I take it personally because my electricity bill is always smaller than my space heating and hot water so driving towards expensive renewable energy and dumping fossil fuels doesn't really enthuse me.
I enjoyed watching the boats fussing around and the cranes lifting the turbines into place and I guess this is temporary as they all require filthy diesel to operate whilst the steel used relies on coal and steel being shipped around the world by (again) filthy diesel. Never mind, there'll soon be drones operated by hydrogen to replace them.
Renewables cannot even reach half of the energy within fossil fuels so something has to give. Lets be kind and say a half so what do we choose? Use twice as much wind energy to stay at par or use only half the energy [what a hedge that was buying an ox-cart].
If Covid can create division in what basically only affects the old and sick what will happen when a move towards renewables means we risk starvation. I'll tell you. Social unrest and civil upheaval that turns our comfy world upside down. At least it'll solve the immigration crisis. The pressure will be to get out of the UK and find cheaper energy and a better way of life.
Energy moron.

Jan - you haven't listened to it. He backs it up with scientific data. He doesn't say its reliant on any of the things you've mentioned. You sound like Trump arguing with Fauci.
Fauci doesn't claim to be all knowing but suggests that on previous epidemics and data that is coming in the following "should happen".
Throw in your list and then oil should be up by $15.

Not you lot. That is the opinion of a man who is a combination of Warren Buffet and Doctor Fauci:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugj634e4TjM

Taster. "has anybody found a lion that became a vegetarian" - "diesel is insensitive to price" - "physics of energy, you cannot get more from less" - "ignore headlines" - "oil sucks" - public sentiment graphs" - "comparative inventory (versus price)"

A fascinating talk by Art Berman. He doesn't profess to know the future but he thinks oil is currently $5 under priced and will be higher in 4/5 weeks. It is a very watchable video and anybody interested in the future and history of oil should watch.