Member Info for romaron

Imaginative hitman until another buyer comes up with the cash. However, that is currently a small coterie (assuming they still exist) so you have an argument.
"The oil price collapse of March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting crash in the global financial
markets have presented us with a unique set of challenges. However, we have moved swiftly to reduce our operating cost
base, have put robust protocols in place to both maintain operations and keep our people safe and have sufficient liquidity to weather this perfect storm." This is the latest I can find from Martin Houston the Chairman in March this year and is corporate speech.
I only mention it because I know next to nothing about him and what his influence is within the company. You can have weak and YES men chairmen which is not something you'd say about Jim Buckee whilst Jock Lennox was (imo) more a professional NED with an accountancy background. The team in my eyes is AB, JS and BD. AB & JS fight their corner and come over very competitive whilst BD comes over more urbane but they are all tested, experienced and competent. MH is vastly experienced too and I'd like to know what he's doing. A strong personality is essential in his role for us and I hope MH has it in spades as well as contacts.
As for leaks:
“Journalists are never hungry. They swallow everything.” ? Ljupka Cvetanova

On paper we have close to a dream team.

Hi L7 - this is basically a retail investor's site/message board. A placing is usually aimed at institutions at a favourable price which is why I said that I was against a discount. I am definitely against the hat being passed around again. We can sit on our hands for a few more months and that is the correct stance imo. We are in a stronger position than many of our so called "peers".
Squif - at least L7 holds some shares. I filtered L3Trader ages ago. I don't care what polish they use on the handrails.
In my first job an older guy told me that "a half-truth is worse than a lie". I'm not accusing anybody but we are all possibly guilty because we never know the full story. There is still a lot of ignorance (me included) regarding refining, what spot actually is and restrictions on EnQuest including hedging policy etc... Throw in a couple of cut & pastes and suddenly people are experts.
My post on 18 Sep "Jan's pills work" was a cut & paste of an email from IR. I never mentioned it before because I was waiting for one of the experts to challenge it. They often do but I reckon it was more a case that it was due to ignorance. I did enjoy appearing clever for a short while.

Build it and they will come.

I agree Jan but sometimes they are fire sales and suitable buyers are a rarity. The sellers must be tempted to underwrite the buyers to an extent. Then you have the Bressays of the sector where the only potential buyer is EnQuest. Similarly Malaysia won't interest some companies who don't know the area and haven't the contacts or experience.

Classic Squif "We have of course no money ". I can speak for myself and another investor who doesn't contribute to this mb and we discussed this yesterday. Raising money from shareholders would be a disaster but that doesn't rule out a placing but the usual discounts must be avoided.
We are attractive in several ways which means that just because we're currently potless we cannot be ruled out for deals. I sense there are big changes occurring behind the scenes and we aren't covenant threatened atm like many of our so called "peers". The whole sector has suffered but in recent months we have steadied whilst PMO and TLW come closer by quite a fall. HUR is likely gone, Spirit is in a mess, Chrysaor has indigestion, Delek has obesity, Neptune missed its IPO etc.... The majors relied on that sort of profitability and activity to follow their business plans. They need us imo. I think watching and waiting will bring us benefits. Some older assets are literally being given away free or paying the buyer to take them of their hands. Joint operations and mergers must also be considered and our 2 aircraft carriers have strategic value potentially, as does SVT.

Build it and they will come.

The term is usually unintended consequences but what about unexpected consequences. I am having a personal struggle agreeing with a right winger of the Tories. Steve baker is right about Covid imo but was once Chairman of the ERG. This isn't good for my blood pressure.

I got this link from another investor

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/25/astrazeneca-gets-partial-immunity-in-low-cost-eu-vaccine-deal.html

Looks like the biggest hurdle has been removed. Time to launch I reckon.

*perhaps we need some Swedish help. I heard on the radio today that one of their top epidemiologists explained the quite high death rates in the initial wave in Sweden. He used the term "dry tinder". Because of the previous mild flu season many vulnerable and old people had survived the regular cull. Hence there were a lot more in the waiting room queue when Covid hit. A certain pragmatism is often necessary. I've had enough of experts. Just get on with it.
I haven't done the sums but merging flu and covid together might be a more sensible picture. Covid is weakening anyway because that's what viruses do.

The rules:
No replies to this post until after 6pm tonight

I thought it meant you were unavailable until after 6pm. What was the point of leaving it until 6pm?

Vaccines mean that you let somebody else take the responsibility and all you have to do is turn up for the jab. If they really want to succeed they should get Amazon involved and then nobody even has to get off their arse.
It will be a multi-pronged solution involving social distancing, masks, prophylactics, therapeutics and of course the "golden bullet" a vaccine. Organising modern western populations is akin to herding cats and many haven't the slightest interest in following the pandemic guidelines. You have your anti-vaxxers and conspiracists joining in too. It's a mess.

Speed up the trials. What is there to lose?

134/77

Hi AK57 -I'll pay closer attention when PMO or ARCM release a missive. This link you provided has (imo) a glaring inaccuracy and shows the limitations of the author. Reuters are head and shoulders above the usual tip sheets and web based "advisory" companies that infest the investment field. Reuters actually have reporters on the ground and their contacts are usually reliable even when not prepared to go on the record.
In the Reuters leak they suggested an offer of 72 cents to the dollar against a bid of 68 cents whilst this guy has said £157m @ 56.51 to the pound. It is still .72 to the pound. A mistake of c.£24m is hardly a rounding error.
I imagine he has just plagiarised the Reuters piece which I believe is accurate.
I accept the price of 68-72 as a guide because conveniently the Retail Bond closed at 71.08 which has the same maturity date and the rates aren't that far away to really mess up the indicative price.
It does say in the Reuters piece that ARCM "plans" to auction so they must have advertised it to potential bidders. It's all a game and you could even argue that they could pull the auction due to lack of response and use it as part of a tactic to suit their own ends.
We know something is going on but remain in the mushroom club.

"Decisions about a vaccine can't be left to the medical authorities. Their already expressed views are to put safety first as mistakes will lead to criticism and probably legal action. The decision is one for our political leaders, who can see the full picture and provide legal immunity to those who need it."
John Moulton - Centre for Policy Studies

Has been badly handled by practically everybody and even the good stuff gets lost in partisan and rigid views. I am still p*ssed at not being able to participate because of a high reading on my BP yesterday. At my age you know your own body and I regularly take my bp. Today I took 2 readings a.m/p.m 123/83 and 128/74. I wasn't surprised as I wasn't being interrogated or trying to remember stuff that happened decades ago. The researchers have created a mystique around this disease and it isn't Ebola.
I told the research doctor I was happy to go ahead and sign a disclaimer. It is time to get ahead of the curve and even run a separate trial with volunteers injected and sent to a Trump Rally or similar super spreader event. There are plenty of crazy people who regularly prove the Darwin theories and they could save us months and get the economies of the world surging.
I understand there are protocols and statistics to gather because probability has to be followed and excuses prepared. In the past we had smallpox which killed far more people and a fatality rate of up to 30%. I liken it to Grenfell and the Manchester Arena when firemen and ambulance personnel followed existing protocols and stood by as many needlessly died. Sometimes common sense and owning a risk takes precedence. Nobody is a bigger critic of the US administration than me but I concede that some of their ideas are worth the risk. They are more gung ho than us and I dare say they'll come out of it better than us overall.
Sometimes these clinical trials seem to me like the auditors telling AB how to run EnQuest.
The risk of being too late is massively worse than being too early imo.

I wouldn't invest in vaccine companies. The US CDC Director said that masks would be a better bet than vaccine. Along with distancing I expect a number of competing vaccines to arrive simultaneously. Once one is launched the others will need to speed up or be stranded. I think we've had the wool pulled over our eyes for long enough. This isn't the 18th Century.

Thanks for the update Gymking. There is often something in these "leaks" and you can speculate until the cows come home on motives but it may ease a bottleneck. ARCM have (seemingly) played this well. True PMO was overleveraged when oil and Covid collided but ARCM have made commitments/agreements and there are other serious players involved who aren't afraid of ARCM. The offer at 72 seems reasonable and don't forget that ARCM are probably in at a much lower price. ARCM don't hold all the aces and in fact have a rather unwieldy amount of bonds. I thought TD seemed pretty smug and relaxed in the Malcy interview. Recalcitrant holders are being pressed back and it could even be that alliances have moved. It looks like ARCM and PMO need to work with each other. There might even be pressure from other creditors to isolate ARCM but it's more likely that they're arguing over fractions of a percent before confirming refinancing is agreed.

Sorry chilting - I was at St. Georges yesterday and you clearly haven't read my earlier posts. You tube and message boards have their limitations. If you receive the vaccination (as a trial participant) you are unlikely to contact Covid. The trial is more concerned with adverse and possibly fatal reactions to the vaccine. Like bleach - they already know how to kill Covid. The quest/secret is in not killing the recipient of the vaccine.

Some train spotters might find this interesting
https://digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-studies-volunteers-dashboard-uk?_cldee=cm9uc2dhbGVyQGFvbC5jb20%3d&recipientid=lead-ad01f1fdccfdea11a812000d3a86b8d5-af6a379553864ba4a7288ddfda99c4cf&esid=3bd41b3f-2bff-ea11-a813-000d3a86d801

I received what is the first newsletter/update today from NIHR which is a Govt. Agency but obviously tied up with the NHS. These extracts interested me the most:

"The UK Vaccine Taskforce has made good progress so far including:·
securing access to six of the most promising vaccines from the UK, EU and US, plus neutralising antibodies for short term prophylactic protection for those who cannot receive vaccines·
supporting the Oxford and Imperial vaccine research teams to get clinical studies started rapidly·
investing in our manufacturing capability so we’re ready to produce the doses we will need for the UK population

What to expect
We have a pipeline of several large efficacy Phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trials, which we expect to start in September and run through until middle of next year. Each study may recruit up to 10,000 people from throughout the UK (England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales) but the exact numbers are not yet finalised. As we get ready to start these studies, some of you will be contacted by the NHS and invited to begin the process of taking part in a clinical study."

I understand the need for safety but surely the dire economic effects should inject a sense of urgency? Commencing phase 3 and running to the middle of next year? yesterday they gave me a chart showing that blood testing goes on for a year.

A-RDS
B-CNE
C- ENQ

Trust you to read the small print.

correction; take away the retail bond $536m and the bank loan of $1bn and using some of Clara's figures ARCM could potentially have c.68% tradeable debt. Torture any set of figures long enough and they'll say what you want to hear. lets see if the auction actually happens.

Hi devonplay - I don't follow this stock that closely but hoping you can help explain the Reuters 21 Sept scoop.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/premier-oil-restructuring-arcm/hedge-fund-arcm-to-sell-200-mln-of-premier-oil-debt-sources-idUKL5N2GI32K
From the annual report total debt was $2,187m at end 2019
If ARCM sells $200m and is left with £240m that means their share of total debt is appx. 20 percent. However, the debt is a mixture of bank loans, retail bond and senior loan notes. I can't see ARCM getting too involved in the RB as they don't appear to like extra scrutiny and bank loans are not traded as easily as junk bonds. I read it as the journalist has possibly messed up her sums. I don't have a dog in the fight regarding the debt but ii ARCM do have that amount of debt no wonder they're trying to offload it. Sometimes traders get carried away and (I'm probably wrong) but if any of Clara's amounts are correct then there is a chance that ARCM have something close to 82% of the senior loan notes or if you add the FRN then it is c.45% of total debt. That doesn't seem right?
I could ramp and say that their nuts are in a vice and TD has a choice. I really don't know but it is possible that ARCM have been outmaneuvered and are currently "perched".

May be irrelevant but. On all the paperwork I have there is no mention of Astra Zeneca. All dates had to be filled in a certain format e.g. 24 SEP 2020. The explanation was that different countries write dates differently. I thought it was solely a UK trial.
Both my consent form dated 22 June and the participant information sheet had this “A phase 2/3 study to assess the efficacy and safety of a recombinant adenovirus-based vaccine against Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)”
When I pushed and asked about stage 3 she retreated to saying it was a phase 2 trial. I asked if it was towards the end of phase 2. She was non-committal. She wasn't communicative about this.
My specific group came under this heading "IRAS Project ID : 281904 REC Ref: 20/SC/0179 COV002 PIS (Age 70 years and over) version 11.0, 11th September 2020." Quite a recent date so things have moved on.
It had a diagram which unfortunately won't copy but the visit schedule had for blood tests up to 364 days ahead from initial dose (some were in 2 doses and they admit to not knowing the best doseage).
The vaccination is single dose (self explanatory) and double dose day 0 and 28 days later.
The 364 days is worrying because reading to the letter it is a year away basically. It seems they are now testing the most vulnerable group (over 70).
I think it requires Government to advise of the risk and leave it to the individual to decide. A fraction of one percent would mean many thousands could die but that is almost a worst case scenario. I can see Trump's frustration and I am no fan of his. I think several vaccines are really ready to go but who will take the lead? And don't forget the anti-vaxxers.
Quite a few deaths are caused by aspirin and ibuprofen each year.

Should add that imo the vaccine has arrived (other countries and groups have solutions too) but politics and negligence hurdles are real.

I'm back and I didn't get the jab. You are interrogated as if it's a top job interview. You watch a video and fill in several forms in micro detail. They then start an interrogation by a research doctor. I was asked if I'd had any untoward blood test history. I mentioned in 1994 I had a platelet problem that was cleared up with steroids and I was discharged. Not good enough. They phoned my GP and naturally had to leave a message (good luck with that) and I mentioned my wife remembers everything. She phoned my wife. We passed that hurdle. She even asked my age when having my tonsils out. I was tested for heart and lung function- no problem. I then had a blood pressure test and didn't expect a problem. Two goes and it was c. 180/100. Told to have a rest and they got another machine. It failed 3 times but eventually gave a similar recording. It meant I couldn't participate in the trial. So personally it was a wasted journey (my hearts and lungs appear OK).
Comments - she stressed that duty of care and the threat of negligence were what made me unsuitable because of the risk to her. I was quite happy to go ahead. Erratic blood pressure is not uncommon and I have pretty good readings usually. The interrogation is stressful.
They will contact my doctor but I beat them to it and have been told to test myself twice a day using the home kit I have (Lloyds pharmacy c.£30) which TBH works better than theirs and is much tighter around the arm.
It is the Oxford trial and Astra Zeneca is involved.
I asked what stage it was and told 2. She was very cagey and I imagine they've been told not to commit or hint at progress.
I was surprised as I thought I was just what they wanted. Seems they're looking for gym bunnies. I have what I consider normal wear and tear. I swam 1,000 metres yesterday and walk everywhere.
Past 20 minutes readings 152/87 121/99 128/82. I'll take the third one but now its jumped to 163/94.

Sorry lads. What it does tell me though is that if you're fit and healthy you can participate. Slightest deviance and it's CYA and perhaps that's how it should be. From the video it seems that the real delay is legal. At It's root it's a chimpanzee virus that is well understood. I think in China and Russia they move quicker.