Member Info for romaron

Very amusing. I'm currently in another Gulag (EnQuest) but was led out for the day and bought some PMO in August. I know well the imaginary line you mention but that surely applies to BP and Shell holders too in equity. Seems PMO1 is steady and some complicated adjustments going through by those who usually know what they're doing.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/PMO1/premier-oil-plc/company-page
Problem is they only post 5 trades once a day so the picture can be skewed. The amounts showing aren't your usual retail investor but are a reflection of the real value judged through the debt lens. Tullow don't have a RB but their debt has improved a little over the past month but their US$ debt is 2022/25 so not under immediate threat (c.57.00/51.00). The Enquest RB tracks their $HYN's (2023 both) so they are a useful indicator. I hope you post more frequently.

19p - sit up at the back there. Jan - I think the world has changed radically. Traditional fund raising isn't gonna work for many companies. The likes of Amazon, google, supermarkets etc.. have cash coming out of their pores but the oil sector, retail and entertainment etc.. are being bled out.
We are solvent, have a scale that separates us from many NS producers and the bait of tax losses, plus a proven management. It isn't only about cash and I imagine an Institutional placing or a large investor buying a proportion of the equity would revolutionise us overnight. M&A companies are probably burning the midnight oil and pitching non-stop. There is money around; it's just in the wrong places at the moment.

I should have added in my previous post that the 4 sales were all value 8 Oct. Today there are similarly 5 trades so I don't know if there are more but the pattern is repeating. Today's figures indicate 8 Oct are private investor amounts and look like BUYS whilst the 2 value 9 Oct are for 25k each and look like institutional size or at least someone with more understanding or spending someone else's money and look like SELLS. Not worth reading too much into this as they could be arbitraging with the equity where they might be BUYERS. Nothing is clear with this stock!
For instance we know that ARMC were looking for BUYERs of the debt but have no idea if they had any success. Even if not involved in the RB they will compare it to the Senior Loan Notes and may trade any discrepancies. It could be BUY the SLN and SELL RB for halfpennies so not reading too much into it as the price is still hovering around the 70 level.

I should have added in my previous post that the 4 sales were all value 8 Oct. Today there are similarly 5 trades so I don't know if there are more but the pattern is repeating. Today's figures indicate 8 Oct are private investor amounts and look like BUYS whilst the 2 value 9 Oct are for 25k each and look like institutional size or at least someone with more understanding or spending someone else's money and look like SELLS. Not worth reading too much into this as they could be arbitraging with the equity where they might be BUYERS. Nothing is clear with this stock!
For instance we know that ARMC were looking for BUYERs of the debt but have no idea if they had any success. Even if not involved in the RB they will compare it to the Senior Loan Notes and may trade any discrepancies. It could be BUY the SLN and SELL RB for halfpennies so not reading too much into it as the price is still hovering around the 70 level.

The PMO1 page gives indications but I'm pretty sure there's a delay of trades and the dates shown are the value date rather than the trading date; unlike the share trade reporting. I missed yesterday's page but from today's page there is a purchase of 100,000 value 7 Oct which kinda backs my theory. I can see one purchase of 100k @ 71.55. this would have been a trade 5 Oct value 7 Oct. The sort of trade that might be made if you heard a rumour of a merger. Then there are 4 trades showing totaling 70k @ 69.15,68.9,68.1,68.25.
The Chrysaor news wasn't met with universal approval and if it followed the equity there would have been a sell off which kinda fits. I only mention it because these are professional sized amounts compared to what you usually get. Activity and amounts are usually in line with what you can see on ENQ1.
The market is too thin to take much from these snapshots but worth following if you have the time and day-trader mentality. I don't have either. Rather annoying that they don't show more trades.

but it often rhymes - 10 years ago EnQuest split away from Petrofac. There must have been a logic for the demerger of Petrofac's Energy Development business but by the same token there must have been another reason for having an Energy Development division in the first place. It is clear that the CEO of Petrofac, Ayman Asfari (AA), knows AB well and they also know each other's businesses well. Today AA is to step down after almost 30 years at Petrofac. His replacement is Sami Iskander who like AA and AB has origins in the Middle East.
AA also runs a foundation with his wife.
AA owns a sizeable percentage of Petrofac [c.19%].
AA and AB are big contributors to the Tories.

With all that's happening you'd be foolish to write off any permutation of company evolution/merger/acquisition etc.....

https://www.ft.com/content/0f7c5eea-5c98-4723-908b-05d9352e9467
https://www.cityam.com/petrofac-will-create-new-oil-colossus/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/23/oil-bosses-have-given-390000-to-tories-conservatives-under-theresa-may

The NS and the Levant are beginning to give incest a bad name.

*irrelevant but Ian Taylor's restaurant in Wimbledon continues to offer fantastic food at a good price.

Hi Jan - you asked who "they are"?
Well it isn't you or me because we're here and they aren't. I can explain that away by the fact that the building isn't finished yet. The pandemic has been both a help and a hindrance because it sped up the energy transition but unfortunately has the side effect of creating a low oil price through reduced demand (temporary).
Covid has kicked contingency plans into action and stress tested every company in our sector. it is too early to say that Covid is defeated but it will eventually disappear and become merely a seasonal threat like its relation influenza. It did though accelerate trends and shale is back in its box whilst companies with weak balance sheets will collapse, be bought or merged.
I liken us to tobacco which is another sector disliked by the ESG investors. Tobacco is protected by a financial moat which gives companies protection from competitors because of their scale and toxicity (ESG again). They have been paying dividends for years and have been good investments because of their predictability.
There is enough money in the world looking for a home that will ignore the ESG siren call if you can offer high returns from a regular dividend. We will be one of those companies imo. The only change to my belief is that we will have to increase our scale either by acquisitions or a merger. The energy transition will only partly be renewables and most will come from consolidation of existing players. It is goodnight to the tiny exploration companies that could tell a good story on AIM and there will be barriers (moats) to new entrants. Raising finance will be much harder unless you have a compelling case. I believe we have that case and tax losses which add to our attractiveness. In fact some deals will only work because of the tax loss. The majors have left the NS because their scale means they can make more profit elsewhere. It doesn't mean that smaller companies cannot exploit the remaining fields and we know that the best place to find oil is in an oil field.
"They" are risk averse and seek a long dividend stream. In oil that looks like decades. The sort of investment our wives would make and analysts like. Smaller, fleet-footed institutions will start to put a toe in the water and we know the herd-like tendencies of financial markets and the media.

Build the best mouse-trap and the world will beat a path to your door.

Like B.P 's share price did chilting?

OK chilting , you've convinced me. We could improve the production of hydrogen by using gold for the conduction of electricity. It has many advantages over copper and cost doesn't seem to be a problem for hydrologists. If cost becomes important then silver is an even better conductor though it may need frequent polishing.

Could have written most of the following until it mentions oil and energy.

"Many people tell me, “I agree with everything you say but the difference between you and me is that you’re a pessimist and I’m an optimist.”

I am neither an optimist or a pessimist. I am a scientist. I use data to best describe the present state of things. If someone prefers a different story, I understand. Stories are good for entertainment but rarely lead to a clear view of what the future may bring much less good investment decisions.

The growth paradigm is dead or dying. Most future energy scenarios do not acknowledge slow growth. They imagine that technology will allow the world to simply switch from fossil to renewable energy without sacrificing living standards. The physics of that simply don’t work.

Most analysts incorrectly assume that slowing oil demand signals the end of the oil age. They don’t understand that all growth is slowing because of unmanageable debt and a weakening economy. Covid-19 brought that grim future to us a decade or so earlier than expected.

The world order is changing. The world will need oil more than ever because of its unparalleled productivity. Oil was responsible for the singular economic growth after World War II. It is the only thing that can prevent slow growth from becoming negative growth in that new world order."

Source: https://www.artberman.com/2020/10/11/oil-and-the-changing-world-order/

Of course it doesn't mean he's right but interesting all the same. As always it's about the money or as we call it "Debt". I just don't see countries throwing away cheap energy advantages when the world comes out of convalescence.

"Energy is the economy. Money is a call on energy. Debt is a lien on future energy."

Numis to be joint-adviser and goodbye to Morgan Cazenove.
You expect this from Numis:
"We’re very proud to say that for the seventh year running we won the UK Small & Mid Caps Extel survey, as voted by institutions. It’s a great quality stamp courtesy of our clients." but I'm more interested in this:
"We were particularly pleased to be the sole strategic adviser on the $460m Klarna transaction. Klarna is now the biggest private fintech company in Europe. This was a pivotal deal for us. It demonstrated that we can advise international businesses and introduce global investors to companies that are leading disruption in their own sector."

Two things - we are a mid-cap now and maybe we'll be better "advised" with Numis and as for Klarna "keep your friends close and your enemies closer".

The current environment is an opportunity for PFG to launch new initiatives. It would be nice if the media dropped "door-step lender" when they report this but I'm not holding my breath.

Be lucky

I actually read, well skimmed, the OPEC World Oil Outlook 2020 report. We need to reboot our thinking about the North Sea. You will struggle to find mention of the UK and NS in the report, or even Malaysia and Brunei.
The report is very encouraging in that the world will need oil for the rest of the century. The OECD countries will use less and the developing world more. It goes to 2045 and TBF that really is wet finger in the air guesswork but it comfortably outstrips the 10 year investment horizon that many pundits use. If a company has a profitable horizon of 25 years then you'd be foolish to ignore it. I'm in.
The major's caravan has moved on. They have left the NS by and large. Old and scattered fields just don't fit their need for scale. They now have a mixed portfolio of shale and conventional which means the days of $100 plus oil are firmly capped except for the odd crisis/war.
Trump has done us a favour by exposing the sheer hypocrisy of the US when anything threatens its economy. They spin Iraq but the question remains; why are they still there? SA has seen the US treat allies badly (Syrian Kurds, Afghans) and may well see Russia as less manipulative and more trustworthy whilst China tends not to invade foreign countries (for now). The US is now self-sufficient in energy and it is in their interest to keep other producers out (Iran, Venezuela) to keep the price high and the US energy industry happy. A manufactured war is quite likely imo. Why else do you keep the biggest military in the world by some distance and have scant regard for existing treaties?
As the majors moved on the next group down will consolidate and merge. It would be pretty difficult to launch a new NS oil company from scratch as there is no appetite with the climate narrative and ESG in every other sentence. Lenders are using 'climate' as an excuse NOT to lend to the sector and there are plenty of other borrowers since Covid.
It isn't even an Enquest "thing". Have you looked at BP and Shell lately?
I think that the OO and RI whilst painful gave us an immunity from the current woes that PMO and TLW are now going through;. Our tax losses are now sought after whilst our status as a public company must be making M&A companies have "wet dreams".
I think AB and his team are winners with the added bonus that AB is unlikely to stuff the shareholders.

Hi Buzzard -afraid I'm gonna have to disagree with you slightly. Small cap funds hope to grow into mid-caps and ever forward so any that are still in will wait until the new company is launched and make a decision then. To sell now because you think the price is going to go higher and push the company into a mid-cap doesn't make sense. Of course they may have broken an internal rule/stop loss and holders have been forced out as the mc sinks. You're right about mandates though and we are currently in a world where bunkers and tin hats are "de riguer". I doubt zoom meetings really give enough confidence to risk upsetting debt and share holders by taking large positions anyway. We know "Prop" traders are as common as snow leopards in Trafalgar Square and the old mantra "never sell Shell" is a painful reminder that no oil company has escaped the downturn.
I think Chrysaor couldn't believe their luck when PMO effectively kept getting cheaper. They would have been sniffing around months ago and their backers are completely different beasts to ARMC and I dare say smarter.

Build it and they will come.

Agree Rookie - during the webcast they mentioned that Chrysaor was formed as a contrarian bet. From an idea in 2014 to launch in 2017. What is happening in the North Sea isn't unique for ageing basins. What is unique is the Covid impact in a globalised world, Donald Trump and climate change becoming almost cult-like. Oil will be around longer than you and me. Nobody knows (and he's perfect) how successful the new group will be but it is just as likely with all the one-way traffic of late (BP & Shell too) that the oil sector in the NS a few years from now will be totally different. Buying now into PMO could be a cheap level to get in. Bit too risky for many but I have a modest holding here and I'm waiting for the dust to settle.
I'm hopeful.

Be lucky

Full cell vehicles
Natural gas vehicles
Hybrid electrical vehicles

Now usually I'd defend oil by saying that each will use a fair amount of oil for plastic bumpers, dashboard etc. but there is a recent (today) publication that throws a slightly different light on the future of the global vehicle fleet market. "2020 The World Oil Outlook 2045 published by OPEC."

https://woo.opec.org/pdf-download/index.php

I noted that Daniel Yergin said that ONE major oil company employed more PhD's than Harvard, Stanford and MIT combined. I cannot find the authors of this report but I'll go out on a limb and suggest they know more about the oil market than anybody reading this but will accept there could be subjective reasoning. The OPEC members are known to have a few bob and I am reliably informed that they are more than partial themselves to a PhD. Having said that we are talking about the future so it is relatively moot. It has 332 pages so needs to be digested slowly. I've only got to page 11 and am having trouble getting my head around the chart titled "Composition of the global vehicle fleet, 2019-2045". It looks like the percentage of "Conventional" vehicles will be more than 20 percent higher than today. They have EV's at around one tenth of the share that conventional has in 2045.

"Rumours of the death of oil have been greatly exaggerated" as Mark Twain may have said.

..... but the turnover was abysmal. It wasn't that brilliant in PMO or TLW imo either even though there was 53 and 28 x the number of trades. The amounts are probably more a reflection on structural Covid damage than any fundamental investing though that may change in the days to come if the Institutions haven't gone into total hibernation. The amounts suggest that a trapped number of bored day traders dragged themselves away from AMGO and was more a knee jerk due to a famine of news. Some posters attribute magical powers to market-makers but today the MM's in EnQuest got it right. After the PMO news just push the price higher for expected demand. You hardly have to be a genius to work that out. Even the algos struggled to get interested.
Even more indifference from the debt aspect. The PMO RB wheezed up 2.5 percent whilst EnQuest hardly moved (HYN dipped half percent) and Tullow didn't even trade. All in all a bit of a disappointment and I think it's fair to say that we may have to wait until after November 3 to see the Institutions move.
The good news is that Chrysaor, an impressive company, saw a wounded and under-valued company and swooped. It's not over yet but the logic remains whatever transpires. There are always at least 2 sides to a deal and today has highlighted the attraction of EnQuest. We don't have to rush and our tax credits, production and reserves speak for themselves. The management of EnQuest will have garnered the respect of the majors during these turbulent times.

https://mcdan.com/price-forecasts/

Nothing really changed. Slight increase since the July figures.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-cut-1-600-jobs-144212668.html

I dare say Exxon would have axed them without Covid. It's an ill wind that blows no one any good. Good excuse for a clear out.

Before L7 picks me up on it I believe the NHBC provided some incorrect information. "Sweden has 1.7 million heat pumps installed in its total stock of 10 million homes".
The population is c. 10 million and I doubt that they have one home per person. If they'd got it right first time it looks even more impressive on paper as dwellings are around half that figure.
Naturally they chose the country with the highest usage of heat pumps in the world. No mention either of the availability of cheap electricity through hydro that might have helped the decision making either.
Mind you it might be worth me looking into as Barnet is one of the highest boroughs in London. I have climbed Highwood Mountain (without oxygen) and would like to attempt Westerham Heights one day if I can afford the sherpa and translator (absolutely essential if travelling into South London).

Here's a bit of information from BRE that is free from CGE gobbledygook.

"The reality is that the UK housing will look much the same as it does today. At current rates of replacement, another 6.6 million homes will be added between 2017 and 2050, leading to a total UK housing stock of around 35 million homes. Only a small number will be replaced, although many will have undergone significant improvement."

So most existing properties will be still standing. So 28.4 m homes will most likely still be heated by gas. Most cheap and economic improvements to insulation have been completed and the remaining are expensive and only likely to come via total refurbishment or trade offs between developers and local authorities. "Nah, I'll put a gas boiler in and turn the garden into a PV farm".
Even if all new builds were CGE dream builds or Greta compliant that would still mean that energy is still produced (over 80 percent) as today. Read the newspapers and we'll all be riding bicycles from homes that can be warmed by the equivalent of a candle by the end of the decade.
New initiatives on energy are paid by taxpayers and they first of all have to pay the of Grenfell cladding debacle. The deal is subsidies and then competition lowers prices. How low can you go? No- the world will need assistance to recover from Covid (the West anyway as the ROW seems to have done quite well) and I think we're becoming a little suspicious of experts and what is (supposedly) good for us.