Member Info for romaron

Enquest 7% 15/10/2023

100,218 i %

24/03/2022 11:27:49

There is finally support for the O&G industry in the NS. We were heading in that direction anyway and was boosted (sadly) by the war in Ukraine.
Yesterday, saddo that I am, I listened to this: https://vimeo.com/691414593
Electrification is currently not economic in the UK. Norway has had better success(40% offshore in a couple of years) but they benefit from cheaper electricity anyway. The main challenge here is "regulatory" and is all about 'grid access' which is unlikely before 2030.
Advantages to wind is that you can build half a wind farm. Disadvantages are that the life of rigs/FPSO's is (say) 15 years whilst the wind farm may be 40 years. This creates financial risks. I did think though that it could work on BBK as we work through the hub and could keep it going for 40 years. I also wondered if EP could become an electric sub-station. Being in bed with the biggest oil company in Norway cannot be a bad thing either (Norwegians have been invaded before. They know the value of O&G and there was even a fictional TV programme of their industry being taken over btyRussia). Not worth worrying too much as all this is years ahead but it will create political excuses and pretend we're doing something positive whilst making energy more expensive. We've learned the "talking b*ll*cks" narrative from the ESG brigade with hydrogen and heat pumps. It worked for them so why not use it ourselves (we might even get given public grants).

2022 EPS is by my calculation higher than today's share price. Out of interest would one of the cleverer people here hazard a guess at EPS for 2022 and 2023?

Ammu - I know it's early and the betting office isn't open yet but the stock market and slot machines are slightly different.

Hope so Juan. I think that announcing JS going was probably going to be taken as negative but the reduction of debt and 'steady as she goes' with $100+ oil will make it just a side-note and the ching-ching at the cash register will drown out other noises.

I was looking at this yesterday. Our P/E is ridiculous compared to others.
"BP p.l.c. has a trailing-twelve-months P/E of 7.80X compared to the Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry's P/E of 8.80X. Price to Earnings Ratio or P/E is price / earnings. It is the most commonly used metric for determining a company's value relative to its earnings."
I'd like somebody who's good with Excel to show what our MC would be at different levels of P/E. I'm not expecting 8 but 4 wouldn't be silly, would it?

"we remain confident on delivering a good performance this year"

have a lie down until the excitement wears off!

Hi Guys, I'm wondering if it is because he was hoping that AB would pass on the CEOship to him. Possibility that AB is grooming Salman Malik for the role? We may never find out.

The market won't like this imo. He has walked away fromn a bucket load of share options. Tullow isn't that much bigger mc wise so what is behind the decision. Was he pushed or pulled? What is going on at EnQuest Towers?
JS has decided that Tullow is better for him than EnQuest. Same job title. Maybe their CEO is going?
The market and me don't like uncertainty. I'll take the lead by reaction. The actual reason is unlikely to be a total secret.

It takes two to contango. "What changed is that much of the Russian oil that continues to be exported from Baltic and Black Sea ports at steep discounts is not delivered to refiners, as is customary. Instead, trading houses are purchasing the oil and keeping it in commercial storage in Europe, from where it may be potentially resold, bypassing financial sanctions. Buying oil for storage is not prohibited under current sanctions."

source: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0322?utm_source=cvent&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=energy

I've never heard of a poor oil trader and trading houses are raising funds. They are closer to the action than we'll ever be.

Neptune Energy left ‘dismayed’ after Save the Children rejects $1m donation for Ukraine. The charity rebuffed the North Sea producer two weeks ago because the charity is “committed to working on climate change issues”. Energy Voice

I have no principles when it come to helping distraught and helpless children. Children in the third world often only have one option. Work or starve. As for Ukraine they need help NOW. What will this "charity" say.
'Sorry I can't help you as the donor produces carbon dioxide and could shorten your life (impossible to prove) by a matter of days over a lifetime.'

What gives them the right to decide? The children come first, surely? There is an arrogance and feeling of elitism among some charities. It is religious dogma like and built on the same BS.

Cheap energy has lifted billions out of poverty. It isn't perfect but pricewise it is.

Bonds below 8% now with 19 months left. This isn't a company in trouble. Confirmation that debt repayment/roll over is proceeding apace will add to upward momentum.

“Good intentions aren’t credible without an appreciation of the costs” - Burton G. Malkiel

"How did you go bankrupt? Two ways: Gradually then suddenly"

The opposite can be true too. "How did you make so much. Gradually (over 7 years) and then suddenly."

* We broke 99.00 om the HYN today. Highest I've ever seen (99.014). Bond market research and intelligence is usually pretty good and they will of course be involved in rollovers and rescheduling of loans. They know more than the average PI.

Fill yer boots!

addendum: Stevo's question made me check (roughly) the indexes. HBR is within spitting distance of FTSE100. That will give them further traction as Tracker funds include them. We would need to practically double to get in the FTSE 250 and are 15% ish away from FTSE 350.
However, I think that is in the price and the bet is how much we can gain (lets say) for this financial year, 2022. So the choice is more can HBR thrive in the extra scrutiny of being a FTSE 100 company whilst we have the freedom of being off-radar. I believe it can work both ways and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an explosive leap forward by EnQuest if developments within NSTA can glamorise companies like us. The numbers will always do the talking but you do need to see some longevity from Governmanet support. We might come out of this week transformed.

EnQuest - the fundamentals never changed.

I'd say coin toss Stevo. I wouldn't leave it too long though: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Market-Is-Untradable-Oil-Traders-Grapple-With-Extreme-Volatility.html
I can't see an early resolution to Ukraine and expect a couple of years of excess profits by EnQuest to make up for the last 8 years. I then suspect AB will plan his future without the 24/7 commitment of EnQuest. A few NEDs or Chairmanships and more time with the Foundation would be relaxing after the ups and downs of the oil sector.
The volatility of the "untradeable market" gives you an opportunity that you might regret if you sit on the sidelines. The HYN is just a tenth of a percent off its alltime high in my records. They're piling into the RB. The Bond market likes what it sees. If you trust the article above then explain why trading in EnQuest shares is higher than normal?
The signals look good to me.

We built it and they're still coming. More a trickle than a big rush. that will change.

For sleep, riches, and health to be truly enjoyed, they must be interrupted. -Jean Paul Richter, writer (21 Mar 1763-1825)
and early energy investor.

Hi monkey - it was excellent. In my group was a Tax partner in a large accountancy firm and a guy from Shell working between Amsterdam and Spain. Naturally neither had heard of EnQuest but the accountant was impressed by the size of our tax credit. The Shell guy was IT anyway. 2 Army guys. Royal Engineer and another based at Salisbury Plain where they have a village built to practise urban warfare. Usually 100 going through a week but now up to 500.
Didn't follow the news all week or turn the TV on. Maybe it has helped my thinking. The war in Ukraine is seismic and shows how gullible Europe has been. EnQuest stands up on its own qualities and the war only confirms our strategic and long term credentials. There is no denying that it is helping us but I'd rather there was another way to show the market that it was too early to cast off hydrocarbons and they are remarkably cheap compared to alternatives. The ESG impulsiveness and lack of thinking through consequences has cost lives.

Slava Ukraini

HBR had a busier day yesterday too https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/HBR/harbour-energy-plc/trade-recap?page=3. In these times of high volatility and thin markets the UT offers a convenient arbiter and facility for a buyer and seller to agree a price and get larger amounts done. The funds cannot ignore this sector for much longer. By that I mean sub-prime/small mc oil companies, not the majors.
More EnQuest specific I was thinking we're somewhat like a leasehold property with a short lease left. Mortgage lenders and buyers don't like them but there is no disputing that they remain valuable assets. Even in the unlikely event that the company only has (say) 15 years of economic life left it is still a highly attractive asset. However, it doesn't fit traditional models and is avoided by those hidebound by convention or scared of the ESG brigade (personally, I'm more scared of Putin).
I suspect there isn't a great deal of liquidity in EnQuest presently and any persistent buying will add extra momentum upwards.
Just out of interest over the past 10 years average Brent was above $100 for 3 years.:
2011 $111.26
2012 $111.65
2013 $108.60
2014 $99.00

Be Lucky

Just been pointed out to me today's UT and late recorded deals. Not day traders. They're here to stay purchases.

Exactly Auson. I noticed on CNN too that they've started adverts promoting fossil fuels. They are boasting that emissions are now down 40%. The advert was under "CEO Vision". Next week will impact us along with the figures.

Showing off your military training Mansardman? What were you - a sniper or did you strut around as a reserve?