Member Info for romaron

Your memory is good Aloj. That is from a 2013 video which has stood the test of time, listen at 05.30.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdjTi-uhoqI
He got a lot right in that video and some wrong. "Russia and China I have a rule - just don't go there" - "Tullow struggle with facts 06.40" but he had mixed results with Shale imo.
I think it is germane for where we are now. In a rising interest rate environment a war chest will not pressure the balance sheet as much but will give us extraordinary flexibility. I wouldn't be surprised to see the HYN rolled over or even increased. The war in Ukraine could hardly have been factored into medium term strategy.
L7 - I am a fan of Waldorf and their mysterious Mr. Hveem who I feel sure lives in a state of the art building and strokes a white cat as he looks out at sea. There are much bigger games afoot I feel https://www.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/43f08402-d72d-4a2e-aabe-cbde7aaec77b

He makes a lot of sense and has the performance to back it. Of course this is the man who LSE says can never be named if you don't give the proper incantation. Some people call him C NUT in code but LSE don't like it joined up? I tend to save it for certain other posters who I must say in a spirit of reconciliation I owe a big favour to for their continual undermining and attacking of the company and the sector over the years. They have enabled me to build up a considerable stake at rock bottom prices. I couldn't have managed without the C NUTS and will be eternally grateful.

*he is making money hand over fist and now is providing an income fund by writing options a la Warren Buffet.

Build it and they will come.

Hi Dumbly - you know this kinda stuff is catnip to me. Thoroughly enjoyed it. The interest rate story is interesting at the end and I worked through those high rates (Eurodollar 3m Q3 1981 18%+). Made me think about the exchange for the new RB coming up. If I was sensible I wouldn't go for it because if half of what those guys forecast happens then 9% may be too low. I don't need the money presently so will still go for it. My reasoning is that it is still cash and not stock. EnQuest is likely to get a better credit rating and I believe in the company. It also confirms my opinion of the management team and raising money at this time is a good move. I hope they do something similar with the HYN.
DKL is a highly intelligent and humble economist imo with excellent presentational skills. He could have been talking about EnQuest @ 13.10 in. He encapsulates what most LTHs on here believe. Funds got religion on how green the planet is resulting in capital starvation. ESG isn't realism. I believe AB understands better than most how the underserved billions are entitled to what we in the West take for granted when even having a vacation is an ambition for many. His Foundation isn't for wealthy or privileged students and aims to improve society in many ways - that is true SG benefitting from E. I don't like the discussion of going private because it doesn't make sense presently with Harbour going in the other direction and Neptune wanting to cash in too. I suppose I'm pretty agnostic about it really but I am not a seller at 50p.
It will be interesting to see what traction we'll get from the present situation and it won't be instant that's for sure. The war stopped decarbonisation in its tracks and there will be a reassessment on the pace of it going forward. They will have to accept realism whilst the Just Stop Oil will look increasingly out of touch. COP 26 is beginning to look like a Billy Graham Revivalist meeting.

Welcome to the real world.

Hi Dumbly - an excellent find, thank you. It fills in a lot of gaps for me. Putin is "smart like a fox". Not a chess grand master but more an Attila the Hun. I had no idea of the massive hydro-carbon resources in Ukraine and Crimea that he could control. Oil and gas is fungible as AB likes to say and the West is happily buying stolen oil and gas from Crimea via Gazprom. I never knew that East Ukraine contains Europe's second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway's).
The guy being interviewed, David Knight Legg former Chairman of the ESG Working Group of the Province of Alberta is an expert in this area and I loved his quote that from a "misinformed and naive perspective, most peoples' Teslas are running on coal". He also said that after 40 years and the efforts of 60,000 engineers Hydrogen is still nowhere near fulfilling its "promises". This will ignored by The Eunuch who says there is a likely breakthrough any day soon [Unicorn tears]. Oil and gas will still be around past 2050 (listen at 37.50).
80 percent of oil reserves are in despotic states. We had our own but surrendered our sovereignty of these reserves by embracing "greenness". Maybe it's too late for us but at least we have the US and Canada to fall back on. Norway seem eminently sensible in this regard but then they have been invaded more recently than us.
The world is a harsh place and many live in grinding poverty. Hydrocarbons can lift them out of this and into a middle class (US definition) lifestyle. Russia knows this and Putin knows that nothing happens without the backbone of energy. Largely hydrocarbons without which you cannot build wind turbines or batteries.
Have to take my hat off to E121 who has been promoting Canadian Energy stocks forever.

Being an optimist I am hoping that we have some grown-ups left in power that can see the dangers in moving too quickly towards "a net zero carbon world". The 2 billion in the r.o.w. want what we already have. Putin and Chi know this. So does India. Time for the UK to recalibrate.

EnQuest is only a small cog in this but that's how it works in the democratic world. We have never been needed more than at present. Security trumps everything with being warm and fed coming a close second.

Sounds like you have a lot of respect for Ithaca's management L7. On the basis that they're not mugs it looks as though EnQuest could do something similar now the Government has given a green light on new investment in the NS. I'd be happier seeing EnQuest closer to 100k boepd. This deal has clearly got approval from the top of Government.
Bit disappointed you're glued to the US golf when Greg Hands, Minister of State for Business, Energy and Clean Growth of the United Kingdom is live on QT. I do sometimes question your dedication.

Forgot to add. Volume pathetic in shares traded today. Maybe all markets taking a breather until after Easter unless Putin does something extreme.

There will be deals closed that we're unaware of regarding oil supply. OPEC have been very quiet and even the worse offenders of Human Rights won't have missed the UN vote on Russia today. It is getting serious for them too as they also own football teams and yachts to worry about without mentioning the earache they'd get from their wives and mistresses about not being able to buy designer gear or travel abroad?
I think today's UK Government announcements on Energy trump the POO anyway. No windfall tax and slipped in "Fast track new investment for offshore oil & gas in the NS" [BBC news]. I liked that they never zeroed in on O&G because of its importance as a transition fuel plus few (nuclear can't) can handle intermittency as well.
Easter recess now and it seems that the Met are preparing for a robust response to any XR nonsense next week. Their 'concerns' [XR] pale into insignificance to what Ukraine is going through and they face ridicule over continuing a battle that has largely been won.
I think the future for EnQuest has never been brighter.

We built it and are open for business.

Much more relaxed. Watched as much news as available but happier now with my position. Oil & gas is being pushed further into the long grass as it is an ever reducing part of our energy mix. Kwasi Kwarteng in an interview said that "energy moves take 5 years to land" which is his way of saying there is no quick fix. Nuclear has been pooh-poohed by experts (4/5 times as expensive as renewables: Lazard's) and anyway is outside even KK's timeframe. Hydrogen hardly gets a mention so we may even see a return of common sense.
Oil is the new coal. Uninteresting to our politicians but an important commodity around the r.o.w. The majors will soon have more or less exited the NS and I still can't work out Equinor's (or Norway's) decision to remain. Oil is still essential in respect of much of our infrastructure, ICE vehicles and intermittency problems with renewables but has moved off the front page to an extent.
The Government has concocted a narrative to explain away the high cost of energy and conveniently Putin started a war so the problem is nicely conflated and with a leap and a bound, BJ is free. He will repeatedly quote the phrase "we are tackling mistakes of the past" and I have heard it 3 times this morning already. Luckily for him the Industrial Revolution has entered a new phase.
We have 5 good years ahead for EnQuest at a minimum (thanks KK) but as we have learned developments don't happen that quickly so we are home and dry to an extent. Obviously Black Swans still paddle about but we are due a respite from them and can now relax and be patient.
I can't wait to join the growing army of old farts like Juan as we take our thermos flasks and sandwiches and go marching around the country demonstrating against the ugly wind turbines ruining our landscapes and killing songbirds. I wonder where XR will go and what they'll do? Nobody cares about oil & gas any longer. The circus has moved on.

EnQuest, still relevant!

"planned to launch in Autumn" for all I know Tim this is 'fast-tracking'. Hardly in your face support of oil. Transition and energy security. Weasley words in the wrong hands. Let's just run EnQuest into the ground and walk away with carrier bags of loot. Bespoke - more like off-the-peg excuse speak imo.

The UK have created a new Future System Operator (FSO) to oversee UK energy system. Still not sure where oil & gas fit in but it will probably be there somewhere in the small print. You have to go across the pond though for true hypocrisy and inaction.
To Democrats the O&G industry is gouging and ripping off consumers.
Oil execs. complain that they don't set prices or controls of O&G or refinery products.
Record profits accuse Democrats but conveniently forget 2020 and Covid.
Republicans explain that Biden needs cover and is passing higher cost blame on refusal of oil companies to increase production. Oil companies respond by asking where are the US Government generating confidence? Oil companies spending record profits on buybacks and dividends.
Finishes with Biden asking the oil companies to step up and increase supply.

I'm not enjoying any of this. Politics means that the UK narrative is twisted and the blame is always somebody else. We like to see some positive movement most days but the EnQuest team have to double guess what will happen behind the rhetorical smoke screen. If I was EnQuest I'd probably sit on my hands and watch things deteriorate further until some sensible negotiation can take place and a few longer term promises made by Government. It is as though we're at war in this country too. I really hope that XR and Stanley don't grab the headlines next week but part of me hopes they do. Then perhaps we'll get some braver politicians explain the true situation and cost of the O&G policy of the North Sea. The British public deserve better.

*read that Equinor about to commit $12bn to offshore Canadian development. North America still values oil.

You can no longer write Eric Nuttall on LSE.

.... I think there has always been a lack of liquidity in EnQuest.
This is encouraging. https://twitter.com/eri****tall/status/1511331993031749638/photo/1
The North Sea is closer to Europe than North America. LNG is also a lot more expensive than NG.

I was gonna make the subject “Two out of three ain’t bad”. Not the great song by MeatLoaf https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s but the S and G forgetting the E for a change. “Want you, need you but never gonna love you” sums up EnQuest and fossil fuels.
All of Europe is now focusing on the S and G of Russia. It is basically non-existent. A dictatorship that invades other countries, allows its soldiers to rape, loot and target civilians whilst banning free speech and indulging in state propaganda. Pressure is on to take Putin to the ICC and people are even questioning the point of the UN with Russia a permanent member of the Security Council with power of the Veto.
We don’t know what will happen but buying energy from them is at the very least, questionable? We have been concentrating too much on E when it is S&G which will decide the outcome imo. It can hardly have missed those countries most dependent on Russian Energy that there is still plenty of reserves in the NW of Europe in a place called the North Sea. Indeed, many experts say we will never run out of oil or gas. As always it is about timing and cost. Renewables won’t do it in the time needed so we will have to rely on OPEC who have a record on S&G which hardly stands up to close scrutiny whilst there are others (in Europe) who aren’t that keen on US hegemony which will also help fill the vacuum if Russia is ostracised by Europe.
The future is unpredictable but there is a strong chance that this is what will happen. European Governments for strategic reasons will be happy to get their fossil fuels needs from close neighbours, the UK and Norway, who have strong cultural and democratic connections made over centuries.

*we have a family occasion next week (13th). A nephew who is a police officer is unable to attend because his annual leave is postponed due to expected actions by Extinction Rebellion (XR). They [XR] are completely out of touch and will alienate the public by their complete lack of understanding. This is not the time to glue yourself to the road.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said this morning that he wants the Government to go for “tougher” sanctions against Russia and will vote with the Government. He said “we need a collective response”. Where will the ‘short term’ energy needs come from?

Build it and they will come.

There are a lot of vested interests to deal with but in times of crisis Governments can be relied upon to turn attention to the silent majority who usually do not complain and wait for the General Elections to come around BUT if they're cold and hungry they won't wait and once motivated they are an unstoppable force. The Government will be getting unabashed opinions and classified information from experts which include the military and those whose role it is to 'keep the lights on'. XR and Insulate Britain are mere distractions now.
Coal producing companies in the US are seeing their stock prices rise. The US Energy execs are being advised by Joe Manchin at tomorrow's Energy and Natural Resources Committee meeting not to use corporate jets and windfall taxes will be on the agenda. This could be something of a blueprint for our Energy meeting on Thursday but I agree with E121 on this. Much of what is decided won't be made public but I'd say it is both sides interest to be sensible and progress will be gradual. There is a lot of distrust due to the relentless ESG narrative, not helped by the CEO's of Shell and BP crowing about 'money machines'. It doesn't apply to EnQuest but the country needs us too.
I already know AB's stance. At an AGM he was asked about what help he would give to struggling contractors who were asking to renegotiate contracts with EnQuest. He just said why would he? They never offered to reduce prices when the boot was on the other foot. To the Governments the same applies. If they demand a windfall tax then why not 'bail outs' in times of difficulty too? Don't lets even go near the excess profits of Amazon, Apple and Alpha who are nothing without energy.
It isn't playing hardball but more a case that we require commitments that the Government won't change tack on a whim because our plans can be 3-7 years ahead and the returns over 20-25 years. Labour can scream for windfall taxes but they are in opposition so can say more or less what they like, it's ineffectual and they would change if in power. I think all people in the UK should be pleased we hadn't followed the advice of Greta and friends.
I'm hoping that a level of uncertainty will be removed around medium term energy and it will reflect in a long overdue rerating of the sector.

Build it and they will come.

Luckily there were only three of you oxygen. I know the area well.

As I said monkey - that was in a very average boozer. If you're going anywhere with a bit of class make sure your mortgage broker is on speed dial.

"John Travolta surprised staff and customers at a Norfolk supermarket when he popped in to do some shopping.
The star of Grease and Pulp Fiction is in the UK filming short film The Shepherd and was spotted at the Fakenham branch of Morrisons at the weekend, as well as a Wetherspoons pub in nearby Dereham.
Several supermarket staff shared selfies with the 68-year-old Hollywood actor on social media."
Source: AOL today

Apparently he safely navigated through the mobility scooters and found a dry seat at Wetherspoons. Doubly worrying when a hollywood star needs to tighten his belt!

The Summary of Price Forecasts April 1 2022 by mcdan.com is out. If we're on a 10 year cycle then it's happy days.

The first 3 years are illuminating if you compare to just 3 months ago.
January 1 2022 75.00 April 1 (9 mos) 97.00
January 1 2023 69.87 April 1 86.70
January 1 2024 67.63 April 1 80.11

*still chuckling at the Therapist competition update. Very creative with Amjad showing his true feelings (in yellow).

Hi Therapist - Far be it from me to criticise but isn't it a bit early to have BTfath's price. It usually requires a decent movement where a few days later he uncannily gets tops and bottoms right. I struggled with mrc's conversion too but we all have our moments and he does have more insight than most and is in the oil business. It is possibgle to take a position you don't always hold in a debate and maybe that is how he stress tests his investments. It is funny that he doesn't bother me (he did as NH) but I prefer black and white rather than the snide digs and half-truths from the likes of Stanley, L3 and KO. Can't people accept that it is a cyclical business and in a harsh environment equipment breaks down and unpredictability is a given?

60p party. Can we afford it? I was in a simple boozer yesterday and I like a few chemicals in my beer -Doombar, Timothy Taylor etc.. Naturally none was available (pumps off) and I don't like scented 'craft beers' so I went along with the wife's suggestion of join her in a glasss of wine. 1 Sblanc and a Malbec 175mm £19.62. Later in a middle of the road restaurant the cheapest wine was £33 a bottle. I suppose the investment tip is BUY Wetherspoons.

Phew! I got tired just reading it. Excellently compiled. For any newbies L7 is I believe a retired engineer and likes to know how things work. He also knows that they break quite often too. I just cheat and pick the brains of cleverer people than me.
It ain't over until it's over and if we get Magnus sorted we may well be producing oil at $100+ that we missed out on when oil was $50/60. Even Napoleon famously said that he'd rather have lucky reservoir engineers than good ones.