Member Info for romaron

"An expert in energy law has outlined concerns that Boris Johnson will announce a “deviation” to the UK energy transition next week.
Professor Peter Cameron, director of the Dundee University centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy said his institution believes there’s going to be a “rollback” of energy transition measures announced by the government to date.
It comes as Boris Johnson is due to unveil a new energy supply strategy for the UK next week in a bid to protect consumers from spiraling energy prices in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.
Measures including a relaxation of incoming climate checkpoint rules for North Sea fields and prolonging the life of the West Burton A coal plant are reportedly being considered.
The Prime Minister has publicly voiced support for the North Sea in the run-up too, hosting industry leaders at Downing Street this week.
Speaking at the Courier Business Conference on Thursday, Professor Cameron said the COP26 conference was “not all that long ago” but recent events have reinforced the government’s duty to protect its people."
source: Energy Voice today. Personally I'd rather have the option of losing a few days off my life allotment than the much higher risk of not seeing the end of March if I was Ukranian.

My daughter was at COP26 in November. Today she is in Romania on her way to Moldova. It probably means Putin will advance on Odesa.

Worried dad

I'm off to ****fosters in a while to get the tube to Heathrow. onedb - all absolutely correct and I had an Italian partner for 10 years from Gorizia. Her surname did not end in a vowel and by then Gorizia had reduced further because of Nova Gorica. This part of the world is a good example because Ukraine had Russian separists in Crimea, Donbas etc.. which they manipulate. These regions can have their borders changed at the stroke of a pen but her grandad spoke Austrian and Italian just as many in Ukraine speak Russian and Ukranian. My sister-in-law speaks Russian and Polish because her country was under USSR control.
I imagine most here did not have this knowledge of this beautiful corner of Italy. Her family had vineyards and produced Pinot Grigio long before it was discovered in Essex. I too am an Italophile.
I do hope the Scots behave! They also have a strange dialect and some would say they don't speak English. They speak Scottish.
My daughter has an Italian Passport as well as UK.

*my wife's grandfather is buried in Clonmany, Co. Donegal. His body was washed up after the torpedoing of the Arandora Star in 1940. Churchill wasn't a hero to everybody. "Collar the lot" was misjudged imo.

I'm off now. Be Lucky.

The Spanish Holocaust: Paul Preston
Spain 1808-1975; Raymond Carr
and my favourite The Face of Spain: Gerald Brennan. He moved around Spain quite freely it seemed before, during and after the war. It is an old book and I have no idea where I got mine from. My daughter is currently in Granada and has nicked it (she is fluent in Spanish). It is the one with a woman in black with a sieve. The grinding poverty compared to the landlords life was medieval. In the book he writes about being in a hotel in Granada and hearing constantly throughout the night lorries changing down their gears as they struggled to climb the steep hillsides. They were full of Republican prisoners being taken to a spot for execution by firing squad. You could be excecuted for being a member of a Trade Union.

*it's on ebay second-hand for £5.99

and a plug for any book by Jan Morris. Travel writing like no other imo. My favourite 'Trieste and the meaning of nowhere' but 'Spain' by her is excellent too.

mrc - 15.11 they did have the playbook. The Spanish civil war. Don't get me started. I have a fascination with that war.
I think a lot of countries at that time pretended not to notice.
My admiration for the Ukranians is total.

Pure accident but I met a Ukranian veteran of WW1. It was c.1980 and he had dementia but knew I wasn't Italian and kept speaking to me in German. It was in Gorizia a town in Friuli Venezia Giulia. It was explained to me that he had fought in Galicia in Ukraine for the Austrian Army against the Russians. When the war was over he came home to his town which was now Italian. The only wound he had was a missing finger. It had been bitten off by a mule. He never received a war pension. I later visited Trieste (also ex Austrian) where in WW2 the Nazis had creatively redesigned a rice factory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risiera_di_San_Sabba
It wasn't apparently discovered until 1956. A stain on the town that couldn't be hidden for ever.
War really is hell.
I also met a WW1 soldier from a pals brigade (South Shields - my ex wife's grandfather). He explained that at the end of the war with the German's surrendering wholesale an officer rewarded men with a digestive biscuit for every German they brought in. It chilled me when he said "The Jock's never got no biscuits."
My own father was wounded with shrapnel and lost a row of back teeth when the bullet passed through. It happened in Albania.

That's unfair mrc - many Frenchmen were desperate to resist. Charles de Gaulle was as patriotic and proud as Zelensky. The low countries are tiny in comparison. Not many know this but Churchill was ahead of his time and Brexit. A proposed joint declaration from him included "The two Governments declare that France and Great Britain shall no longer be two nations, but one Franco-British Union."
Sunday June 16th 1940.
Reynaud was surrounded by defeatists and we know how that ended. De Gaulle was reluctantly smuggled out. He was obnoxious but he was fearless.

*Patriotism is when love of your own people comes first; nationalism, when hate for people other than your own comes first. -Charles de Gaulle, French president (22 Nov 1890-1970)

....and I'm sure Covid had a part in it though I'll be damned if I can explain it. There are hundreds of theories but I'm sticking with what I know. Advantage whether it's economic or numerical is still an advantage. Putin's hold on the throat of Europe through oil & gas is real. I have been involved since 2007 in reducing energy and sat on a committee at Eland House. Where I am expert is on the indifference of the public who love grants if they're receiving them but riot if energy becomes "expensive". This war has come just in time to stop some awkward questions.

How do you factor this in?

"Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, bought a cargo of Russia’s flagship crude at a record discount, underscoring the company’s decision to keep buying supplies from the country after its invasion of Ukraine.

The company paid about $28.45 a barrel below Dated Brent, a benchmark for physical oil trades globally, taking the cargo from Trafigura Group. The cargo has been bought on a delivered basis, meaning Shell won’t need to sort out transportation." source: Energy Voice.

Still works for Russia. They're happy and profitable at $40 and of course have fixed contracts at different prices. That's the problem with oil. It is $150 and $80 at the same time. I think we're gonna run into a lot of unintended consequences.

For any new readers. Chilting or Stanley as he is better known is a prolific spammer who attaches himself to stocks he isn't invested in. He has a simplistic and rather populist approach towards topics but doesn't let knowledge get in the way of what is basically cut & paste from social media.
He is a proselytiser of the renewables movement but even now when their ineffectiveness is there for everybody to see cannot resist giving us the benefit of his ignorance.
How's the heat pump crusade going?

I'm off for a week's skiing in Italy. It will be interesting to have some distance and be away from the news. I wonder what the price of EnQuest will be on Monday 14 March?
Listening to LBC this morning they had some good guests especially from Germany. The new Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is famous for doing nothing and letting his competitors fall in the race. A rather passive and careful individual. A robot-like technocrat and about as unexciting as they come. In the space of a few days he has set up a fund of €100bn (£85bn) to boost its armed forces. Sweden too has increased its military budget by 40%.
What do they know that the public do not?
The UK came under attack because we were known as Londongrad since the 90's and nothing has changed. We are reacting slowly and there is a strong suspicion that the Russians helped fund Brexit. They have certainly been generous with donations to the Tory party.
A bit of a guess but I think there is still fierce lobbying to support these oligarchs in the UK. I think it is a little too early to sing the praises of our North Sea assets and could even be seen as provocative to both Russia and the anti-fossil evangelists. There was even talk of opening coal-fields up again. I would imagine the Germans have this as an emergency plan.
I have absolutely no idea how this pans out but we have engineered ourselves into a position of weakness and much of Eastern Europe is currently under threat from the Russian Bear.

What a humanitarian mess. So much for civilisation.

I don't see a lot of news coming out of Norway. It is a small country closer to Russia and was invaded in WW2. Any interesting news would add to our understanding of what could happen to the North Sea. Our Swedish friends will be even more interested so anything interesting please give a link if you come across it. Swedish news too.
The NS is a collection of valuable asset and we have 2 ships too. EP and the carrier SVT.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-crown-prince-plays-oil-card-quest-us-recognition-2022-03-03/

DUBAI, March 3 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's crown prince says he simply doesn't care whether Joe Biden misunderstands him.

WTI or Brent? At least you know WTI will turn up. We know the compliance departments at many NOC's and in OPEC+ struggle to spell integrity or understand transparency so you can expect a higher proportion of non-delivery.
I would imagine that AB has had the Official Secrets Act explained and along with other O&G CEO's he is attending more unplanned meetings than he ever dreamed of.
XR and IB - dangerous******.

"An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile-hoping it will eat him last" Winston Churchill

Provides much of the wheat for the world. If the Black Sea gets blockaded then Egypt could starve for example. Maybe you'll scoff and say I'm being alarmist but Spring will soon be upon us and the wheat in Ukraine needs sowing. Many of the farmers and workers are either fleeing for safety as refugees or off fighting.
I'm guessing here but Putin is enjoying the panic that is setting in and believes it will strengthen his bargaining position and in certain quarters enhance his reputation. Putin has no limits but other Russian Government Ministers are not crazy and neither is the Russian Military. I hope.

Hydrocarbons are back in the limelight and I doubt the Russian tanks and armoured vehicles convoy in the 40 mile log jam are stuck in Insulate Britain Glue.

In a report published today, the House of Lords Industry and Regulators Committee claims there is insufficient policy detail to incentivise the £50 billion needed yearly to overhaul the energy system.
Lord Hollick, chairman of the committee, said: “The Government has set ambitious targets for net zero including a carbon-free power system by 2035; however there is no point planning a carbon-free energy future if you haven’t got a clue how you will get there or how it will be paid for.2
“We now need urgent action from the Government to answer outstanding questions on issues such as how they will incentivise households to replace gas boilers with heat pumps – and what plans there are for the 6 million homes where heat pumps may be unsuitable – what funding mechanisms will be established to encourage investment in small modular nuclear reactors and how the upgrade of our infrastructure to allow the use of hydrogen for heating will be funded. These are basic questions that need to be answered before we will get the investment we need to get to net zero.

*6 million homes? How about more like 22 million! We have the oldest stock in the EU. You can make any house ASHP compliant if you have bottomless pockets. My house was built in 1994 and it would cost me £50k+

Cloud cuckoo land!

Watching CNN last night and there was a discussion that Biden should cease all imports of Russian oil. It could require going back on decisions made with pipe lines (perhaps) and Federal licenses for new fields to support the move for total self-sufficiency. I wish them luck.
BJ is never slow to jump on bandwagons and push blame on others. Perhaps he will grasp this opportunity? We know he is shameless about going back on his promises.
That would give the O&G sector a boost in the UK. Would make a change for the energy that keeps us mobile, warm and productive to get some appreciation. Sadly we would need the situation to deteriorate further in Ukraine to make this more likely.

I hope you're right onedb. I just don't know enough about front end logistics. If people won't buy a tankerful from Russia because of sanction fears then what happens? It will probably go to Asia and the sanction busters who are highly experienced will take their costs out of it. Russia loses by this cost but benefits from overall increase due to overall supply shortage. My point was more that you can have temporary situations where the oil is in the wrong place and that will cause temporary price hikes and oversupply until it settles down. Some people will have bought extra but most thought that if Russia did invade it would be quick. The resistance of the Ukranians and the opposition and unity shown by European countries towards Russia with sanctions has surprised many, including Putin I'd imagine.
I think this will go on for months and will require a lengthy and expensive occupation for Russia. What we really need is for the Government to show support for the North Sea. It is early days but they haven't done anything yet. They are trapped to an extent by the promises and hyperbole surrounding COP26. If the Govt show a commitment to the NS we'll see 60p before H2.
Remember the WW1 slogan "it'll be over by Christmas." The longer it goes on the more the Govt will have to act and show its support (or not) for the NS.

We don't know enough about the intricacies of Dated Brent and I suppose that there could easily be a minority of physical traders trading contango. That's if they can find the storage. I imagine that spot crude is one of the bigger casinos and unfortunately we go up and down with it like a cork in a wobbly barrel. Those involved will be spoofing and disguising trades. I've given up for this week. We may get more clarity next week; but probably not.

Just as an afterthought. MBS is despised by many for the monster he is. The US aren't so keen as they once were to defend House of Saud and Trump told him they wouldn't last 2 weeks without US protection. I'm pretty sure Putin would step in as he did in Syria. Iran doesn't have a lot to thank the West for and 'your enemies enemy is your friend' applies. They quite like the idea of the US being out of the equation.

Hi onedb - I'm not so sure. If you consider dated brent as a kinda blend there will be a lot of mismatches with deliveries. I'm guessing that China got a heads up about Russia invading Ukraine and would have made some arrangements for Russian oil being diverted towards China. China always bargains hard and they are receiving cheap oil. There could even be gluts in certain places. Reading the forward contracts that China is setting they often engineeer a discount of up to 30%. They not only use the stuff they build the factories and refineries. They are involved in the financing too. We have been asleep because of our obsession with renewables which as we know aren't here now we need them. China and Russia don't worry about the 'Green vote' in the same way we do.
A big chunk of the world isn't facing an immediate shortage. I'm in it for the long run and expect the penny to eventually drop that with oil the West has been outmaneuvered. I imagine that the fire-fighting by releasing SPR is announced with fanfare and pleases the media who are always thirsty for news and can be fed propaganda. A bit like when Central banks fight for their currency only to be defeated a few months later. If you're wrong, you're wrong and if something is mispriced then you will eventually be found out: energy anyone?
It's possible that the Middle East consider it a European problem and aren't really affected. Russia has plenty of leverage here and is not as powerless as the Western media is preaching.
Whatever way you cut it the North Sea is extremely strategically important but that won't be immediately apparent.
I see 30p by the end of the month and 40p by end April. The war has only been going for a week. Even if it ends quickly the security the NS brings us will put an end to early decommissioning. The future of the NS has just been granted another 15 years imo.

North Sea oil; under new management.