Member Info for romaron

Read the post Mansardman. I struggle to understand his English. I offered to help. That is hardly bullying. I have answered the posts that I can understand. I will be at the AGM so any accusations of bullying can be addressed to me directly.
As for stewardship of this company I'd suggest he looks at other companies for comparisons. Even Shell and BP are having a rough time and they have been having record quarters.
Barclys have had a record result today. Over the same period as AB has run EnQuest they've done worse (ignoring dividends). BP the same, Shell flat.
3 oil wars and Covid might have had an impact too. Pointless argument if you just dip in and out along time lines but if it makes you happy, go ahead. It is a free world (well here it is).

Build it and they will come

It isn't even in English. squiiiffy write in your own language and I'll use google translate.
I don't think bananas even know how to taste.

for squiiffy, KO, chilting and other pond life.

HYN up today over half a per cent.

For those who don't follow the technicals I'll explain. It's a f*cking lot in this market and a massive positive signal.

*Tullow bonds down (again).

Juan - Bez truda, ne vytashish i rybku iz pruda - wrong keyboard

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQHUAJTZqF0

That'll test a few of you. Listening to Bloomberg radio this morning they asked an "expert" pundit what he expected if WAR was declared between the Ukrain and Russia.
She answered; "we have factored oil in at $125, world GDP minus a half per cent and stocks down 10-15 per cent."
I rushed home and cranked up my computer. I took the liberty of only using only 10% down for EnQuest because we should actually benefit but as always looking at a worse case scenario. So if war is declared in the next hour or so we'll get an extra $28 a barrel because on my screen it has oil at $97. That's around $42m (£31m) a month as a bonus. Our MC is atm £386m
So roughly a month from now we'd be at the same price.

*getting there:
- Juan, no pain no gain or as we say in Chingford ??? ????? ?? ???????? ? ????? ?? ?????
monkey - third bench behind the oak tree
Modestus - the blossom is early in Kyiv

As usual Stanley misses the point even when helped. Oil will still be used a decade from now. The HUR story is (as BlueRun pointed out) about "fractured basement" plays and sunk costs.
chilting - keep your promise and go and wave your placard somewhere else.

Own up - who unglued him?

Hi BlueRun - I share some of the blame for bringing HUR to this board. The recent uplift in its price made me suggest that a buyer was in the wings and we might be able to use it as a marker for the current value of EnQuest. Your comment on HUR may be more accurate "the company is fit only for an orderly rundown" and my responding to your post is that is how I am valuing EnQuest. Not because I'm expecting a run down but because it means that even in a "worst case" scenario EnQuest is a raging buy. That does of course depend on oil staying above $50 whilst $65 would be better still (using Mcdan.com figures). I'm crossing my fingers for (in a run down scenario) oil staying high for 2 years (70-85 range).

Seems like I owe you an apology squiiffy - I've only just realised that English is not your first language. On the bright side - at least waterboarding EnQuest's accounts keeps you off street corners.

Flattery won't hurt you if you don't swallow it.

Bit more colour. Following the 3rd oil price war (2020) the Saudi's were due to spend $500bn on US defence systems. Trump had been telegraphing his usual "art of the deal" clumsiness. The Houthis, with basic weaponry, had easily pierced existing earlier US purchases. Enter Vlad. The Russians air defence system S-400 and S-500 is regarded by many as the most effective in the world.
The Saudis signed a MoU to buy.
S-400
Kornet anti-tank guided missiles
TOS-1A multiple rocket launcher and thermobaric weapon
AGS-30 automatic grenade launcher
...plus of cours the Kalashnikovs.
Not only this but Russia will let the Saudis manufacture of these weapons overseen by relevant Russian engineering and technical personnel and Russian security forces to ensure the safety of the people, the plans and the products.

I wonder just what Trump said without witnesses to Putin (who speaks English) that emboldened Putin so much? The US don't need gas, little oil and seem to have moved their attention elsewhere. We have never been told or shown the true picture. Doesn't matter. Whatever got us here is beneficial to our future.

The North Sea has become very, very important overnight.

EnQuest, open for business.

I wonder what plans the Government and Military have for North Sea oil and gas? I doubt it is lets close the bloody lot down, appease the glue stickers, save the planet and give free rein to Putin.

Fill yer boots!

Hi L7 - I'm currently doing a deep dive and stress testing this investment. I abhor trading discussions because I spent a lifetime doing them. I don't have the weaponry I once had and it is still difficult if you're fully armed with up to date intelligence. I think you are one of the few who know where I'm coming from. Dated Brent is like me explaining spot FX. It is huge and partly it works off reported figures that are often suspect.
Just one example of misinformation is the September 2019 attack on the Saudi Abqaiq and Khurais processing facility and oil-field by the Houthi "rebels" temporarily causing the suspension of over half SA's production capacity. This was fobbed off by the announcement that normal capacity would be restored in 2 days. You as an engineer know that there is absolutely no way an accurate assessment or any meaningful repairwould alone take several weeks. Then there is the SA interchanging production for "capacity" when they actually bought oil from others (including Iran) and rebranded it.
The rubbish spouted by certain posters here ignores the shale wars and the incredible achievements of US shalers. That EnQuest came through them speaks volumes about the quality of our management. I couldn't care less about other companies but I expect us to be quietly rewarded for our patience.
The world powers of oil are now Russia and I believe SA on one side because the US are largely self-sufficient. I will never trust the former and I don't want to be a colony of the US. In a fast changing world the NS has become extremely valuable and strategic.
Regarding dated brent I suggest readingt this: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/d18d1719/ces-wp2-russiagas-021122.pdf
It is only 18 pages and an easy read. Maybe BBK will become part of the Brent blend?

BTW - Putin has played a blinder. He now more or less owns the Middle East. Not sure where that leaves us but being self-sufficient works for the US so maybe we'll have a rethink on the NS?

Be Lucky

I hope you can read this:

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/znvnejyjypl/OIL%20PRICE%20OUTLOOK%20FOR%202022-2023.pdf

I don't really get all this talk of recession. I do think we have a Western myopic view and miss a lot of stuff the other side of the world. I think whatever happens people will travel, buy things and rely on energy for almost everything.

In FX data was collected by the BoE weekly and monthly. It was fed into their releases and people with pointy heads analysed them to death. I traded FX but never read or paid attention to the figures and neither did my contemporaries. Which is why I only pay token interest to EIA releases. I even set LIBOR rates for Italian Lira - no fiddling there. This resonates with me.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2024781
The IEA has suddenly realised that their figures are suspect? Duh!
DON'T EVER TRUST FIGURES JUST BECAUSE THEY COME FROM AN OFFICIAL SOURCE
Why are we all accepting that spot or Dated Brent is at this moment c. $95.00 when we know that it has traded at over a $100 last week. Which price is more accurate?
The article says "missing oil". I'll go with that in the same way that I go with "missing investors". People don't always return surveys or complete records as they should. Why does EnQuest go through the Share register by hand monthly? Because they trust themselves more than erratic form filling or unfriendly trades or stake buiding/divestment. Even trades are posted late on purpose or maybe just laziness (not algos but the real movers aren't generated by them) as it is not a priority and anyway, why inform a competitor before you need to or are still completing a trade.
Before you say I would say this as I'm a bull for oil I would also add that I think we have a short window of opportunity before oil returns to a better balance as shale output increases and starts the cycle all over again. I think renewables will create a new bottom price of $65 which is all we really need.
I'd go further and say that Putin has a far better handle on the true picture because he has never had a problem with dealing in the real world and will deal with whoever benefits Russia. He doesn't do ESG or ethical investing. Along with his pals Xi and MBS who have also been known to alter figures and not always tell the truth.

EnQuest, open for business.

I use it to keep my erratic records. I'm working on something at the moment and flicked back for reference. I had tried working out some forward/forward prices on futures to see if it fitted in with a FX way of looking at things some time back. It didn't help but it did mean I have some old figures which really throw a different light on things.
Apr 16 2020 Brent Futures
Jun 27.65
Jul 31.38
Aug 33.50
Sep 35.00
Oct 36.10
Nov 36.84
Dec 37.33
Now compare to today's: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/brent-crude-oil-last-day.quotes.html
contango v backwardisation I'm not reading anything into it but it does show the swings in oil. I'd say oil was seriously underpriced at that time as we all agree that backwardisation is more usual.

Since the beginning of this month & including our update the HYN is up 1%. It isn't necessarily a good comparison but Tullow have bonds also at the Luxembourg bourse. They are at a higher rate (10.25%) and mature in May 2026. They have lost 2.5% over the same period. I'm expecting renegotiated bonds at any time and I'd say the signals are good using TLW as a yardstick.
*I posted on 15 Feb about a sudden drop in the RB of 3%. Bit disappointed that nobody commented but I just realised it reflected the interest payment. Kinda like when equity goes ex-dividend.

Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity, but cash is king.

Certainly wasn't me squiify. I'd rather your post in broken English accusing a Swedish guy of poor fluency in a foreign language, full of bile and conspiracy theories on your part remained.

Actually Taleb wrote a book called Antifragile. The oil market goes through phases and we (EnQuest) are every day becoming LESS fragile and I agree with Gurun. Oil may well go down (the market remembers) but we have a couple of good years ahead of us plus a decade where we should earn a decent return. The world resists high prices eventually but this time it will take longer. Credit will be tight with rising interest rates and the memory of shale losses but there is a topside to oil. It is the bottom side we need to worry about but the siege of Ukraine has given us a new lease of life. Putin doesn't really need to do anything. Just park and watch the West crumble due to self-interest. I imagine Gazprom will honour contracts but the uncovered production will not be heading toward Europe. It is no accident that many Chess Grand Masters are Russian.

"High prices tend to usher out incumbent politicians faster than they usher in new technologies."

squiiffy - your 17.25 post is pure gold. You are accusing a Swedish guy of not achieving a basic educational level of a UK student aged 14-16. Your own English isn't at that level and it appears your Geography is a little suspect too. I know from experience that your maths is basic.
Quite a few here use Tarmak's spread sheets for reference and he is always asking for criticism and contribution. You could learn a lot from his example.

Tarmak - apologies for my (I suppose) countryman. Ignore his rudeness. He wouldn't say it to your face. His kind never will.

P.1028 and P.1189 expire at the end of next month. What happens could indicate what Siccar Point’s intentions are for the Cambo project. Important indicator for Bressay.

Hurricane up again this morning. No RNS as yet.

Uncorroborated but my sources tell me that an offshoot of Insulate Britain that saves animals in war zones called ‘Mittens for Kittens’ glued themselves to a road in front of an animal sanctuary in the Donbas. A heroic if futile gesture in front of tanks. Their remains are being repatriated via Amazon in flat packs as a ‘humanitarian gesture’ by Russia

It was my fault Juan. Apologies. I forgot that squiify isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer and I should have taken more care. He doesn't understand that a dividend from the Retail Bond (9.54 post) isn't a fee or a bribe for promoting EnQuest. That comes as cash in a brown envelope.
Perhaps you can help him. He doesn't listen to me.
best,
Q

....just to add onedb. Some don't bother to report. Incidentally, you were right on the backwardisation, I was wrong (still doesn't make sense with the current price of EnQuest).

Build it and they will come.