Member Info for romaron

Good point E - here's another in a wider context. Putin met the ****stan Premier Imran Khan yesterday. Putin does nothing accidentally. It centres on Iran. Iran want to extend the gas pipeline to Oman and to ****stan as part of the 'one belt, one road' project. China has a 25 year contract with Iran for oil gas and petchems. China expects the Renminbi to eventually play as important a role in world oil and gas as the dollar ((China & Russia have 2/5 permanent seats at the UNSC). France is wobbling. Russia have enormous influence and geographical proximity with satellite states.
Iran has been trading and producing gas and oil actively but has had to accept a steep discount due to US sanctions. They and ****stan are expert sanction busters. So my logic says - Putin keeps his foot on the throat of Europe with control of gas. Europe will have to go elsewhere and pay the price if Russia is not the supplier (willing or unwilling). The vacuum will be filled by Russian Gas (and oil maybe) laundered through a combination of complicit partners. Russia loses some money but the sale of gas continues. If the Renminbi becomes a reserve currency that will be further diminished. Putin went to China to get agreement with Xi before entering Ukraine.
Europe is getting smaller and smaller and less relevant.
The US is self-sufficient and imo America first has never changed. Trump showed that.
We need the North Sea more than ever.

That's it. Off out the rest of the day.

*Saw a young girl about my daughter's age on ITV. A UK/Ukranian student. She vows to fight with molotov ****tails or whatever comes to hand. My heart breaks over the stupidity and bravery of the young. I'd be so proud of her all the same.

I remember a story of a medieval Chinese general whose army was getting slaughtered by gunfire against their own rudimentary weapons. He kept sending seemingly suicidal waves against the ranks of gunfire. An observer pointed out the futility of the strategy and he remarked "but they're running out of bullets".
Tonight Biden announced he is releasing reserves from the SPR along with other countries. It brought the futures down. I said earlier that governments playbooks are pretty consistent and this is a predictable response. He added that he didn't expect the oil companies to raise prices to maximise profits from the situation (a veiled threat but also later leverage for the companies - quid pro quo).
My point is that these are the West's bullets and although they seem to solve the problem it is only temporary and depends on the length of the War and how it develops. Expecting it to play out today is for day traders. This will keep us occupied at least throughout March. I wonder if it was brought up at the Kwasi dinner just 3 months ago?
Central banks fought like tigers to defend their currencies in the past, throwing billions against speculators and it was often co-ordinated in different capitals (Fed, Bundesbank, BoE). My memory is of their failures. The hedge funds and Investment banks of the time had planned well ahead and the Central banks were being reactive and the only groups that suffered were day trader types and of course the citizens of the countries being attacked who owned the reserves the central banks were gambling with.
Biden mentioned gasoline prices tonight. If I was Putin I'd read that as a weakness. I'm pretty sure he can outwait politicians who have news cycles and pressure groups to satisfy.
My money is still on Putin.

It is only day 1. Give it a chance. The turnover on LSE is terrible (8.942m shares) and I know a couple of PI's who'd beat this by unwinding. There's not enough there for the algos to get their teeth into. Added to that there is a smörgåsbord of choice of undervalued oil stocks to choose from. We are going to have a wild couple of weeks.
There is something I'm struggling to get my head around. Years ago I was taught that sometimes panic is also action and dumping stocks is actually the right thing to do. On that basis sell most stocks and buy energy makes sense. Problem here is that many funds cannot buy oil stocks for a variety of reasons. Can anybody explain this?
Oersted A/S
770.20 DKK
+105.20 (15.82%)today

I went swimming and passed a petrol station so filled up. Now some will say that I am henpecked and under instruction from 'er indoors. I must admit it did cross my mind because if her instincts are right I'd get a volley of "I told you so's" that could go on for weeks.
This couldn't be further from the truth. I have in fact taken advantage of the current price and am storing petrol in a 'contango' move. I wonder what the price of fuel will be in 2/3 weeks?
Currently the powers that be are spreading calm around and do not want any panic. As usual we'll be last to know about the true picture. I expect us to be in the 30's soon. We cannot expect buyers today. Many are frozen staring at losses in their portfolios. If they move at all it will be to sell and stay long of cash. We know, we've been there. People don't move into a sector that has been a pariah for the past 7 years overnight.
I doubt I'd jump into oil if I wasn't already here and had learned a lot over the past 8 years. I'm not even sure I'd recommend EnQuest if I wasn't in so deep or worried about sunk costs from a research point of view. I like HBR and SQZ but won't be diversifying. Jim Buckee was right about Russia when he said "just don't go there". BP never listened.

We've done it lads. Just a little more patience required.

Stay Lucky

Her daughter is in her apartment on the 24th floor and can see the whole picture. The tanks are both Russian and Ukranian. She is going to attempt to drive to her grandparents some 70k away if she can get out of Kharkiv. Her husband is ex-army and is involved in the fighting. They are very anti-Russian. It doesn't seem real when you actually know somebody involved. Terrible.

She's back. No queues.

A mate's wife is from Kharkiv. Her 6 month pregnant daughter is still there. She can text her and there are more than 100 tanks surrounding the roads and lots of fighting.

And we worry about a 1p move in EnQuest.

My wife has just gone out to fill her car. I had nothing to do with it. She said that on the news they said Russia supplies a lot of the world's oil. She said I don't know where we get ours from but I'm going early to avoid the hysteria. You want to see her panic in a power cut!

I bet she's not alone. I'll know in a while just how busy the petrol station was.

Hi Auson - I think these are just markers that pundits like to use. Might even call them comfort blankets. Energy has always been too cheap imo. and of course the US can stand $100 WTI. They've done it before. Their petrol is still cheaper than ours. I can't attempt to understand the future. Just heard on the Bloomberg radio that they're worried over how much pain Europe can take. They didn't include the US. More or less energy independence for the US has changed the world. The US isn't threatened in the same way as us. Having said that the average American is a very strange creature. You have to factor in politics but in the wider picture I think the US is much more China focused. The US will be a winner here. They have grain and fuel. As for oligarchs, they've got more US oligarchs than Russia will ever have.

I wonder if they're defending WTI? Biden might not like the headline in the US that it breaks $100. Consensus was that they liked it around $70 WTI, the so called "Trump cap".
Remember at a Trump rally in October 2018: "And I love the king, King Salman, but I said, 'King we're protecting you. You might not be there for two weeks without us. You have to pay for your military, you have to pay'.
Acceptable territory is now broken. For every $10 rise in crude gasoline goes up 25/30 cents.

I think they'll defend crude for a while. But like Central banks worldwide. The market is bigger than them. Eventually they crack. Patriotism doesn't always extend to the pocket.

Bob McNally energy adviser to G.W. Bush. "Few things terrify an American president more than a spike in fuel [gasolins] prices."

If the markets ever link oil companies to the price of crude again? I remember oil around $80 last year and the US started putting SPR oil back into the market. Many Funds and investors have effectively locked themselves out of ever returning to the hydrocarbon markets by their public statements of appeasement to the ESG lobby. Buyers will turn up but many only looking at how much their overall portfolio is down. Imagine if COP27 was next month?

You can't stop a tsunami. Our present existence today depends on hydrocarbons. There are always unintended consequences by moving too fast, too soon and listening to evangelists. Putin knows this.

doesn't only apply to sanctions and military actions on the part of the US and Europe. The oil companies and traders will have been contacted and given instructions. The immediate action is to calm markets. The government's financial arms and the Central banks will already be putting plans into action. This has been telegraphed for months and COP26 was read by some as the weakness of the West. The ESG lobby and climate change activists are not blameless. The sale of SPR reserves is not looking so clever now. $103 looks too low but would you bet against the might of Europe and the US at this time? I think they are calming the markets but I wouldn't be surprised to see KO filling up at the petrol station this morning.

Terrible news for Europe and especially Ukraine. Making money is fine but not at the expense of innocent people.

My thoughts. Something emboldened Putin to move now. He understands energy as well as anybody. His ambitions and the strength of Russia is fuelled by Oil & Gas but unlike Saudi Arabia he has other assets. Tanks and rockets are back in demand and his are much cheaper and in some cases better than the US weapons whilst poisoning and assassination never really goes out of fashion.
Iran is also a lot cannier than most understand. They match Russia in ruthlessness, but then, so do the US. If you stop to think there has been little stopping Iran producing oil and gas. OK it has to be "off the books" and sells at a discount but do you imagine that North Korea, Myanmar, ****stan or China for instance decline the offer of "want some cheap petrol, guv?" because of moral reasons or obedience to US doctrine and rules. They produce something like 3m boepd and could block the Strait of Hormuz in a heartbeat. They have the biggest and best reserves in the ME. We really don't understand the religious and cultural connections of the ME. Qatar and Iraq share the same gas field whilst Iraq and Iran energy is the same so often only a label change is required. It is a mess and only the top intelligence agencies (and Vitol) really understand. Don't listen to the credit agencies either. They receive high fees to say what their clients want to hear.
There will be a regime change in Saudi Arabia which is probably already closer to Russia than the US [MBS useful idiot]
Saudi Arabia has lied through its teeth about its production and reserves for years.
Russia has huge cash reserves that are growing by the day. They are happy with $40 a barrel.
Putin only has to wait for the cracks to appear. So far I cannot see anything that would make him wish to concede or drop his demands. It doesn't mean I agree with them, just saying how I see it.
I bet Germany wishes it had our North Sea resources. Russia is a reliable ally in the ME. I don't think people realise just how loathed the US is out there and as for memories just look at the unlawful imprisonment by Iran of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe which relates to a sale of tanks in 1979.

They haven't changed their view and neither have I. Quite long but here are a few snippets:

"While many people point to COVID-related disruptions, the truth is that the current energy crisis has been a decade in the making. For many years, demand has been much stronger than anyone cares to admit."

"Even before COVID-19, E&P companies were spending half the 2014 peak – approximately $70 bn.
The average E&P stock between 2014 and 2020 fell by 90%. Energy is a fundamentally cyclical business, driven in large part by a carefully choreographed capital spending cycle."

"Most investors are under the impression that much higher energy prices will push renewables “into the money”--- that is renewables will become competitive for the first time versus higher priced hydrocarbons. This completely ignores the fact that energy itself makes up the single largest cost component for both wind and solar. Instead of making renewable energy more cost competitive, higher energy prices will simply drive up the costs. Renewables today remain “out of the money” and higher energy prices will never be able to push renewables “into the money.”

"US E&P companies will only spend $45 bn in 2022 – up from the COVID low of $30 but far below even 2019’s depressed level. The last time oil averaged $90 was 2014, a year in which E&P capital spending totaled $140 bn – nearly four times higher than we expect this year"

I have some fresh comments to add.

Miserable but ...... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-OoIvgtuzs

the Russian deputy head of President Putin's security council, warned Europeans that their gas prices would double very soon. That will definitely concentrate minds. Last week Putin noted that Russia's commitment to "honouring" existing contracts had suppressed prices to between a fifth and a third of the normal market rate.
source Today's Times.
Spring and summer will eventually arrive but renewables don't stand a chance of picking up the slack. I see the Germans opening up coal-mines again. One thing it has done though is finally give a long overdue lift to HBR who have a lot of gas and SQZ too (BP & Shell down a tad but they have assets tied up with Russians). It will affect oil as well but it is Nordstream getting the current headlines. Good to see some logic being reflected in share prices.

Someone wrote "Any half wit (sic) could make money in the oil industry at these levels." This of course is a half-truth.
Unfortunately many of them went bust during periods when oil was below $40 a barrel (both halfwits and oil companies). Others are zombies or start ups waiting for finance in a Micawber type strategy. That is when our management was tested and they passed the trials. The secret is to survive when the chips are down. The last time it was above $100 for any length of time was between 2011-2014. I along with many others didn't realise the length of the oil cycle or anticipate events. We are now in a position to reap the rewards of being in the "right place at the right time". It takes more than good fortune to have a company ready and prepared for just this situation. We've had our share of bad luck and tough times but the management kept their nerve.
I for one want to see how this story plays out. I doubt anybody really sees Putin backing down on his policy of irredentism especially as he seems to have the tacit approval of China. MBS will just have to do as he's told (by Putin). Oil production is now controlled by two superpowers. Russia and the US with Russia having the most leverage in the Middle East imo. Both are cosying up to Iran.

*MBS is reportedly to be described by the Russians as a "poleznyy idiot"

EnQuest, open for business.

You are correct there Squif. I've never considered BP or Shell our peers but they are an aspiration and even lowly football teams model themselves on Premiership teams. I've been in EnQuest about the same time as you and I am more or less flat (no dividend). Most LTHs on here seem to be around this level. Top ups when in single figures appears quite common. I was lucky with the RB but expect to win large on the equity. I do understand figures but not the accountancy ones. I'd also struggle to rewire a house but I know how to switch the light on.
Simple enough for you?

Squif, Gordon Gekko is fictitious. So is the Tooth Fairy.

Read the post Mansardman. I struggle to understand his English. I offered to help. That is hardly bullying. I have answered the posts that I can understand. I will be at the AGM so any accusations of bullying can be addressed to me directly.
As for stewardship of this company I'd suggest he looks at other companies for comparisons. Even Shell and BP are having a rough time and they have been having record quarters.
Barclys have had a record result today. Over the same period as AB has run EnQuest they've done worse (ignoring dividends). BP the same, Shell flat.
3 oil wars and Covid might have had an impact too. Pointless argument if you just dip in and out along time lines but if it makes you happy, go ahead. It is a free world (well here it is).

Build it and they will come