Member Info for romaron

We have seen what happens when sentiment changes. Take Evraz for example. Down 85 per cent. I assume its products sold and its assets commanded an appropriate price. Then Russia invaded Ukraine and sanctions etc.... means an uncertain future and investors baled out.
Hasn't that been a slow drip on what has happened to oil and especially the North Sea too? I'll agree there is a downside to hydrocarbons but it is by far outweighed by the benefits it has given to humanity. Life before the Industrial Revolution was brutish and short. We live in a world of cheap food and energy that makes life far more interesting and enjoyable than that of our grandparents.
Renewables were never going to happen overnight and they still struggle to make solar work at night or when it's overcast. Hydrocarbons are often in unreliable parts of the world where human rights are ignored. Just look at at Ukraine. The Russian army isn't running on electricity.
We have allowed the dreamers and evangelists to persuade Governments and law makers that hydrocarbons are evil and should be made illegal. I'll concede they need controls but the damage isn't being caused by the UK (1% of world emissions) and we already have stringent rules. Maybe we need the true price of energy to come through so people can make an intelligent judgement on the facts.
We could be entering a new phase for oil & gas in the NS. Unpopular but for the real price being paid and not an inherent fault or poison. The Government needs to take a lead here and show that it can stand up to crackpot demonstrators who just say 'no more oil fields' but cannot come up with an alternative that is even close to the economics of dense fossil fuels. They reckon 1 barrel of oil is equal to 4.5 years of human labour. Nothing else comes close at the price.
Time for a reality check.

*we need, and I expect to reach it in a few months, 40p. That would get us into the FTSE250 I reckon. We'd pick up a bit of momentum just off trackers buying in then. I cannot see any Government ditching hydrocarbons especially with Russia and the 4 votes supporting them at the UN (Belarus, N. Korea, Syria, Eritrea) and 35 abstentions (what a beauty parade) ominously threatening our values and future.

I imagine that other ship. The stationary aircraft carrier SVT has probably increased in value too.

Hoi Auson - He totally doesn't trust the Saudi reserves as he explains in the book. If they [SA] could turn on a sixpence and had the reserves then why did they secretly buy oil to replace that lost in the attack on the Abqaiq and Khurais processing facilities in September in 2019. There isn't a lot of difference between the House of Saud princes and Russian oligarchs imo.
The Middle East gives incest a bad name. Qatar and Iran share gas fields whilst Iraq and Iran are almost indistinguishable from an oil perspective. In fact the Saudis were buying Iranian oil to cover their shortfall. Insiders and intelligence agencies know this but there is little to be gained from publicising it. The public aren't that interested anyway. In fact I'd take it further and say that public ignorance has played into the hands of climate change activists and allowed the undeniable benefits of cheap energy to be whitwewashed out of history. That has changed with events in Ukraine.
Aramco is a disaster.
My point is that oil does have a bigger scale and abundance outside of the NS but due to other factors it will always be pretty expensive and unreliable in an uncertain world. NS oil stands on its own merits and when you throw in the security from energy independence it could topple a Government if you outlawed it.
I think Ukraine could be a 'black swan' for EnQuest and other NS oilies.

We built it - they came.

I've almost finished reading 'The Complete Guide to Global Oil Market Trading' by Simon Watkins. Bearing in mind the publishing cycle it is very much up to date and includes Trump and his Saudi Arabia interventions in 2020. What I didn't expect was the detail the author goes into and his breadth of knowledge. We really do skirt on the outside of what must go through the minds of Governments and the Majors + National Oil companies. It is a surprise to me that Iraq has more oil than Iran and Saudi Arabia. We are not going to run out of the stuff. The Chinese have a stranglehold on supplies in Iran (+Iraq) and are making inroads in SA. They are planning for petrochems still being valuable and essential as the demand for gasoline wanes. Not guesswork but plans for factories and refineries support this view with 25 year contracts being signed whilst US companies avoid.
What I didn't find was a mention of the North Sea. I don't think that will surprise LTHs. The author has concentrated on major influencers and producers giving us scant reference. Norway the same.
I accept this and it does reinforce what we've seen and the performance of the NS with the larger players divesting and exiting. However, I have been quite happy to live with 'transition' and a 10-15 year life for EnQuest. The r.o.w. just cannot produce oil without corruption and inefficiency and megalomaniacal ambitions. Our Government has been appeasing the ESG crowd for far too long imo and if current events don't stop the disastorous running down of our NS Assets then I fear for this Country's security. The world is still unfriendly and I will change my mind only when Insulate Britain glue themselves to a road in Russia or Saudi Arabia.
I expect this Government to give succour not only to Ukraine but to the UK & Norway for our own well being and security. We still need Nuclear Weapons and North Sea OIl. There is now an even bigger reason to buy EnQuest and other NS oilies.

EnQuest: Looking for sites to expand - please contact Amjad Bseisu at 15 Regent St. London SW1Y 4LR +44 (0)20 7925 4900

Steely self-control. I lean more towards Oscar Wilde: “I can resist anything except temptation." That's why I couldn't do swingtrading. Then there's the other side that you need to be in touch with the market continually. I couldn't and wouldn't do that.
I imagine much of that is out of the window now. Things can change completely in minutes.

Will we see WTI more expensive than Brent?

Hi gurun - you could be right but it is usually pointless to try and emulate. I don't know the ins and outs of your market but MMs & spread betting providers have to protect themselves. I have an account at City Index and a banner across their page reads "73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider." That means City Index wins most of the time and this is replicated across markets. There's the retail and there is the professionals. Unless you have an advantage then it is unusual to win in the long run. I am slightly up on my position of being long at 17.91 with CI but I have had to add cash at different times. Not margin calls as such but to avoid being cut out on a temporary downward spike (it happened to onedb I think). My advantage (fingers crossed) is that I can afford to take a longer view and I like the leverage.
If it is as you call it "a swingtrader" he/she could even be a trader at another bank/stockbroker trading on their personal account. In the scheme of things it isn't doing us a lot of harm as the volume in EnQuest is tiny and if your theory is correct, he/she is just taking money from the day traders, especially as you follow it more closely than any of us and you think they're winning overall. There could even be a reason to utilise the reporting around the 3% mark. Highly technical but if you know how the algos work and can factor reporting in then it could be the veritable "candy from a baby". It can work on these tight small movements but if we ever break out I wouldn't be too sure.

I don't understand it but I would only worry if the amounts were larger and it does help liquidity even if it does seem to be largely rinse and repeat. Our high street bookies have been doing it for years.

Brent futures prices for deliveries in May have climbed to more than $105 per barrel, up from $77 at the start of the year, as the market moves towards scarcity pricing.

More importantly, the six-month calendar spread has surged into a backwardation of more than $15 per barrel, consistent with an extreme shortage of oil in the short term.

The last time the calendar spread was in a backwardation this wide was in September and October 1990 after Iraq invaded Kuwait

For no special reason I kept the futures for 24 Feb. Only 5 days ago but they are illuminating after the gradual increments in the past. Second figure is today's.
May 22 94.46 104.31
Jun 22 91.98 100.37
Jul 22 90.06 97.52
Aug 22 88.69 94.76
Sep22 87.66 93.20
Oct 22 87.00 91.90
Dec 22 85.63 89.62
Jun 23 81.58 84.28

....and so are these https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/brent-crude-oil-last-day.quotes.html

I do prefer your sources.

Good luck with that "It should now be hedging more FY23 and FY24 to lock in $100+ prices for future production." but presently there are no futures breaking $90 in 2023.

Hi Elitesky - I've been using this for Brent: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil and it does match the price on City Index of c.104

Hi Lending - I am a recent holder here and normally enjoy and learn from different contributors. Sadly this board has been ruined by one poster who has taken over and ruined any sensible debate/comment with his mindless 'analysis' and incessant reporting of anything and everything with a hint of 'cyber' involvement.
Out of 8 posts today I can only read yours and Litoum. The Filter means that for me "less is more".

1. They find a plot and find finance. They mostly use contractors and as the green field sites disappear they more and more use brownfield. They're almost our equivalent of the US small shalers. I'm stating the bleedin' obvious but with all the uncertainty in the world I believe EnQuest should be treated the same. Cover the decomm and we can be as short-lived or as flexible as them [speculative builders].
2. "With the price to earnings ratio (P/E) being the key metric highlighting investor activity on speculation as to future gains, in itself a function of the weight of opportunityfor a company to increase its earnings going forward, it can be expected that the Tehran Stock Exchange's P/E ratio and its total market capitalisation will increase exponentially in the coming months and years."
Yes you read that right. The Iranian stock market which operates on a P/E of around 5 or 6 times.
We are valued at less than stocks on the TSE. Something ain't right?
It is as though the market has moved the future and renewables until NOW. EnQuest easily has a 15 year life though few of us expect it to be an Independent that far ahead but it is priced to end in MONTHS.
Unless renewables conquer intermittency and the trillions necessary to fund the transition we are likely to be still using oil in 2023. I'll stick my neck out even further and say even in 2033. China thinks we'll need oil in 2050 which is why they are entering contracts with Iran until 2047 (25 years). I am a little concerned about what happens between 2047 and 2050. I'm certainly not bothered about the next 2 years when we stand a good chance of being debt free if we want to.
The march away from hydrocarbons has become so entrenched that it remains unlikely that the main markets and funds of the West will ever embrace them again.
Emerging markets like those of Iran will though. Some of that is in Putin's thinking.

I suppose it depends on where you build it?

Why not? The Ukranians are doing pretty well by choosing violence. I'm not an appeaser and an admirer of their decision to resist. As for nuclear warfare. That terrifies everybody except possibly a madman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUnhBO_FPJQ

Hi Mansardman - well accepting we aren't gonna get Rory Stewart is there anybody you'd prefer to see as Foreign Secretary or Defence Secretary? Unfortunately Zelensky and Klitschko are both busy. I already side with Liz Truss and Ben Wallace if they p*ss off the Russians. They must be doing something right!

The problem with having a butterfly mind is that you frequently do go off topic (O/T). Like many here I am absorbed by the war in Ukraine and some of our own politicians have surprised me. I'm not a Tory but Liz Truss and Ben Wallace have stepped up whilst even the self-obsessed BJ has spoken and written in praise of the Ukranian leader and the country's defiance in the face of greater odds.
I was once invested in Xcite oil (owner of Bentley field) and remember that Ben Wallace asked a question in the house (I cannot remember exact question) and the link with Xcite was quite obvious. He is ex Scots Guard as was the FD of Xcite Andrew Fairclough who would have been involved in negotiations between Whalsay Energy where he was CFO and owners of Bentley license after Xcite.
It probably means sod all but I imagine Ben Wallace knows the value of independence in energy and his reputation and importance has grown during these troubled times.

Yesterday (Friday 25), Zelensky told a videoconference of European leaders that they would likely not ever see him again. The whole world can see that his execution is very likely imminent. What reason does he have to doubt that Vladimir Putin will order his murder, as the Russian leader has done with so many of his bravest critics and enemies? Zelensky’s fate is so clear that Washington offered to extricate him from Kyiv, so that he could form a government in exile. But Zelensky swatted away the promise of safety. He reportedly preferred that Washington deliver him more arms for his resistance: “The fight is here. I need ammunition, not a ride.” : From The Atlantic

An ex US General on CNN commented that tanks begin to lose their effectiveness inside cities and the damage to Russian armour was often caused by an attack to their rear/ 'Tank drivers tend to concentrate forward'. He then added that it had similarities to Bastogne when the US 101st were surrounded. The rallying cry was "The poor bastards have surrounded us again".

Who could have forecast that "the easternmost outpost of cosmopolitan Europe, a place that might elect a Jewish vaudevillian president. That a relative outsider has come to lead that nation—and is willing to die for it—is perhaps the most stirring validation of the cause."

We're certainly living in interesting times. I got Putin wrong. I thought he was a cold, calculating demagogue but he's beginning to make trump look sane and rational. We should go up tomorrow but I'm beginning to accept that we'll just consolidate and make profits in the same way that tobacco companies do. Unloved but earning from a reliance and addiction to hydrocarbons. I can live with that. Just have a look at BAT share price from 2000 to today.
We're still massively cheaper than renewables and China fixing 25 year contracts with Iran suggests that we'll be around for a while yet.
Putin is like buses - there'll always be another one along in a while.

*totally irrelevant but we were always told that SWIFT stood for 'someone's wonderful idea for f*cking up telexes'

"The White House has briefed journalists that sanctions “will not target oil and gas flows.” The U.S. Treasury Department has specifically exempted financial transactions “related to energy” from sanctions.
So either the market is over-estimating the fallout from the crisis on the actual availability of oil and gas; the U.S. government is under-estimating the impact sanctions will have on oil and gas supplies; or a bit of both.
If the U.S. government’s view is correct, spot prices and the backwardation should both fall as oil and gas continues to flow, easing some of the fear about a recessionary spike in prices.
If traders are correct, the disruption of oil and gas supplies (actual or threatened), possibly as a result of a miscalculation about the escalation ladder, will worsen inflation and increase the risk of a recession.
But given the contradiction between where prices are trading and the U.S. government’s strategy, someone must be wrong."
source: John Kemp Reuters 25 Feb

Letter 24 Feb https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/126/russia_gl8.pdf

So it's all hunky-dory (unless you're Ukranian).