Member Info for romaron

The broker recommendations are currently 42.50 (45.00 and 40.00). I think I heard Jefferies at 50 but we can discount them to an extent as they are almost house-brokers (i.e. hold means sell). All of this is relatively meaningless but I did come across something that made me chuckle. The Barclays analyst, James Hosie, has given us a harder time than most imo. Could this have anything to do with it? Go to Enq Broker ratings at the top of the page and go to 25-Apr-16. Could it be a misprint? If not it explains a lot.

The only thing I got right was making the prize a 'Black Swan'. I'm pretty sure that if we did it today the target figures (guesses) would all be higher. Putin's attack on Ukraine is no longer a 'Black Swan' and like many of these events looks pretty likely, after the event. Russia have behaved like this towards neighbours forever (Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Georgia, Chechnya etc...) Aloj, you're the odds on favourite to win.
The Romaron Challenge
Aloj 66.60
Juan 60.00
Mrc 56.00
Modestus 55.00
Tigar 53.10
Pelle 49.99
Oxygen 47.25
Tarmak 44.10
Therapist 43.25
Gordon Albert 42.82
Hitman 39.00
Gurun 38.00
Simplyme 34.10
Shax 33.00
SIPP10 32.80
Northernmonkey 28.25
Slift 27.80
Pyueck 19.50

"The findings from the Panmure Gordon analysis lend weight to Marshall’s criticism that UK money managers have become part of the problem. Income funds invest in the lower-risk, steady-return, cash-generative businesses that make up much of the FTSE 100.
Such income funds only make up 5 per cent of the £1tn of UK managed equity assets, according to the Investment Association. But, says Marshall, this income focus is more widespread than just these officially designated funds. He argues that the whole UK fund management industry has a deep-seated income bias that has become ingrained in investment mandates, from pensions to insurance and other funds.
That creates a cycle of negative feedback that is cutting off the lifeline of new growth."

Plenty of ways of looking at this. It helps explain why until recently we were just ahead of Gary Glitter in popularity terms. I suppose it is a positive in one respect but the report highlighted just how poorly UK stocks are treated compared to US and Europe. I think we've cleared one major hurdle and they will not be able to ignore us going forward. With the Dividend obsession ingrained into the UK fund market we may just have the accelerator to get them investing in us. Bit surprised no comment on yesterday's RNS. I think it leaves them nicely poised to increase to 6% or beyond and does tie in nicely with what the Panmure analyst wrote. Another point is that I consider Schroders to be smart money and one thing I do know is that smart money follows smart money. They aren't interested in what a bunch of PI's have to say or do and they have a certain contempt for day-traders. They believe in follow-the-money and this will not have gone unnoticed.

The title of 4 D's is because markets will always have trades due to the 3 D's (as in selling houses) death, divorce, and debt but I think Dividends deserve to be included because they too are primeval influences on our actions.

Build it and they will come.

You're in good company hitman - "I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon." ~ Baron Nathan Rothschild

I've been lucky to not need the money so have run my position longer than is usually considered prudent. Sitting tight and undertrading is also a strategy.

I think oil is on a bull run so as long as you hold a producer with a half-decent balance sheet you will be on a winner. I have hovered over the BUY button for Harbour but am too lazy to do the research.

There's plenty of life left in oil stocks and I doubt EnQuest is the best one but it ticks most boxes for me. Good luck with your other investments hitman. I wish you were still invested as I liked your reasoning and forecasts from the charts and trading tools you used.

Be Lucky

Seav - great minds and all that. I was just looking at same. For reference purposes and to back any discussion I use this:
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php
Not saying it's perfect but I haven't found anything better. It says 8 April at top and we are no.368
We're currently c. £650m and using this list you'd need c. £1.2bn to just be in FTSE 250. There is a FTSE 350 but I don't think it has the same influence as the 250 and you can see by the volatility/erratic movements that this part of the market moves a lot and of course there is AIM too. At least we'll soon leave the "small cap" index behind.
Once we reach FTSE 250 I believe we'll have a compounding effect so to reach FTSE 250 we're gonna need 65p and I believe the march is on.
People mention FOMO which is beginning to happen but against that is people will look and say: "it's already up 77% this year, I've missed the boat". That might apply to the more risk averse and pin stickers but it will not deter smart money. There are alternative investments too and other oil companies to consider.
Today will be consolidation and I think the Easter break will mean we hover around here for a few days but it looks to me as though progress will continue. I think we'll move quicker now because Governments have more pressing needs and the ESG movement had its chance. We've had to put up with their incessant demonisation of fossil fuels and despite Govts bowing to their whims as though they were demanding petulant children the simple fact is that despite the trillions they have extracted from revenues they haven't been able to step up to the plate. Ordinary people in the street know this now and that frightens Governments. The price of beer and a gallon of petrol is where it matters or as MR says "There's 'noise' and there's 'what matters'

Juan - with inflation it might be better to call for a 65p party. It will happen this year imo.

Hi onedb - I remember that trade and commented. You got distracted and I said you'd remember it more than some carefully structured wins because of a certain amount of clumsiness. I've messed up countless times and some stick in your memory more than others. I had the same position but was able to keep topping up (unwise as we're always told) and it has taken me best part of a year for it to be a very rewarding trade. I know you went back in.

Ignore the trolls. You'll never meet them. I've never heard of one turning up at drinks or an AGM/Presentation.

Be Lucky

"At, best, diversification protects against sharp downwards volatility from one stock. At worst, it robs private investors of the chance for spectacular (and achievable) gains" MICHAEL TAYLOR

I don't follow MT but I do follow Merryn Somerset Webb who responded with this tweet: "Very Baillie Gifford. Very very risky for those without a lot of time and a lot of knowledge."

Well, I have a lot of time and with EnQuest a lot of knowledge, and what knowledge I don't have there are other resources with many to be found here on this message board. What obviously peaked my interest was the mention of Baillie Gifford another LTH of the stock. Many assume that the likes of BG are almost extraterrestrial with their success and shrewdness. They are not. In fact, like Warren Buffet they are logical and watch the herd whilst not always going with it.

Holding EnQuest was never a punt but it was very contrarian. The world will need hydrocarbons long after we're gone. It is worth remembering the difference between the paper price of oil and all its derivatives against the physical dealing. For some time the paper price has had a strong depressant, namely ESG and renewables, affecting the price. Remove that and you get what happens when you release a catapult.

The herd knows something is afoot but after years of negativity are still nervous of buying oil stocks. Share volume is nothing special. The best is yet to come imo. Well done all LTHs.

On Bloomberg TV this morning sidebar: "ESG investors are getting trounced in Global credit market rout."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9_nWlSX6Us

I write the futures down from time to time (8 X since war began) as I find it easier to compare when next to each other. MR and his comments about Q4 being when we're really be seeing high prices has support from the futures. It isn't quite contango but we've seen a lowering of the front end (dated Brent) and a rising of the futures.

24 Feb 12 Apr
June 98.59 104.80
Jul 97.03 104.30
Aug 94.60 103.64
Sep 94.08 101.61
Dec 91.25 99.54

The majority of people stare at the front end and work from there. They might come to a different conclusion if they look further ahead. From July onwards the futures have never been higher. Contango says - it might be high now but it will get higher still. Oil is in deep caca imo. That explains the changing opinions of Govt. I fancy Labour have been shown some scary projections - hence the change of focus. I've been in oil 8 years and know very little. I've seen Governments and chancellors panic and get it wrong for over 50 years.

Hi IANAA - yep, that's it. Enjoy. It isn't often you get someone with as much experience as MR but also the ability to translate it into simple language that we can underdstand.
I never underestimate the stupidity of markets matching my own ignorance. One has to use their own experience to understand what is happening and how gravity has seemingly stopped working. 'This time it will be different' has been said so many times and people begin to believe that there really is some secret cabal of high priests who control us and the markets. The future remains unknown but using my FX experience I saw countless time Central Banks use their reserves and interest rates to defend their currencies when they were fighting the inevitable devaluation. The US and allies are doing the same with the SPR. It is stop gap and doesn't solve the problem. Renewables are a long way from being the solution despite the trillions thrown at them.
Are Labour just being cynical and realise that to win back the lost votes they need to appeal to the ordinary man in the street by calling for an immediate ban on the actions of 'Just Stop Oil'? Activism is for the Corbyn diehards and the virtue signalling of being anti fossil run its course? Amazing how quickly the demand of a windfall tax has evaporated. The only way many oil companies could survive was cutting back on Capex and the situation we find ourselves in is due to the demonising of a sector driving away essential investment. Oil reserves decline. I think most people don't understand that and would be surprised to realise that trillions were lost, not made, by the US rush into shale.
Realism didn't have to be this painful. COP27 will be interesting if Egypt cannot replace the wheat it lost from Ukraine and alternative sources are prohibitively expensive as fertiliser prices (oil & gas again) have gone through the roof. Their starving millions will have a different outlook to the middle-class dogooders that treat these events like a festival of the like-minded. I don't know anybody who attends them and my daughter only attended COP26 because she was reporting on it. She speaks Arabic so I'm guessing she is a shoe-in for Egypt. I'll have to remember to ask her if she will be going. We never discuss saving the planet or foregoing holidays that involve flights.

correction to 07.18.
Electricity runs the world. What he said was that it is in turn run by hydrocarbons. 55% coal and 27% gas. My mistake.
The world runs on oil in the form of 74% transport and 24% plastic (1 Tesla uses 60 barrels - not sure if that's whole barrels or the percentage of each needed to refine) which is where I got my 80% from. I'm aware you probably guessed what I was aiming at and the context is in the video; plus I've never been known for my accuracy.

Looks like its the romaron message board today. I'm possibly the only one here not going away for Easter. Someone has to man the shop!

32.13 to buy against 32.14 -32.48 on CI. A negative response would be to suggest that there is a seller of shares in the market. I don't know and don't really care but just to show an example.

I think MR summed up the paper price against actual quite well. This morning I bought 35,000 at 32.0968 when the price on City Index was something like 32.10-32.39. It was early but I was dealing in what I consider the investor's market and the other is a spread betting company. They cannot get too far away from each other as they will always be arbitraged back but in this case I'd say paper price was more excitable and active. Having said that the share market also has a multiplier effect. The spread betters work the spreads and are in and out of the actual market for hedging purposes. My point is that sometimnes sentiment and trend overrides fundamentals. By understanding and accepting this you can do wat EN, MR and WB do successfully. Us LTH's were only 'wrong' for about 7 years.

Last month it was asking for a windfall tax. I think the Labour Party are adjusting to changed times and a return of common sense. As Mike Rothman said, "gas and oil make up 80 perent of our energy mix". Some people are so "woke" and will not accept reality.

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/labour-just-stop-oil-injunction-b2055751.html

btw - I am pretty "woke" myself on many things but I do try to bring an element of practicality and being part of the greater society at large.

It worked earlier but I can't get it now. Either through Nuttall or cornerstone. It's out there so one of the people here will find another way. It is worth it. I'm sure they'll advertise it.

You'll go crazy trying to nail this stuff down and anyway why worry? You're never gonna know why people buy or sell. Even the professionals have reasons that can be completely mundane and they make many of the mistakes we make too. Schroders are better than most at reporting but I can't be arsed to go through all their RNS's. An RNS is an important document for EnQuest but this isn't anything to do with them. They have to rely on investors following the rules but nobody seems to prioritise them. I think ARCM got off pretty lightly with their attack on PMO so I'd say worth the risk but Schroder are a blue-chip not a dodgy, off-shore hedge fund.
It looks like they came from a very low holding and this is good news.
I was talking to another investor and did comment that I suspected a buyer around because deals were going through of decent size at the higher end of prices that were drifting lower. I read this as somebody using a broker who was working well and getting the amounts done. You can't do that at the bottom whatever the punters believe. As long as they get the direction they don't really analyse. We also believe there isn't much liquidity in EnQuest shares. Most LTHs seem to be happy to hold and it is a problem for new investors imo. Schroders and the like don't really care about the daily movements and neither do I. Listen to the Mike Rothman QA at 25.20-27.20.

Found it:
https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/console/EventConsoleApollo.jsp?&eventid=3729704&sessionid=1&username=&partnerref=Eric&format=fhvideo1&mobile=&flashsupportedmobiledevice=&helpcenter=&key=DF9A7C1D1700B614CEFDD904CB2521A5&newConsole=true&nxChe=true&newTabCon=true&consoleEarEventConsole=false&text_language_id=en&playerwidth=748&playerheight=526&eventuserid=527009716&contenttype=A&mediametricsessionid=455458579&mediametricid=5247458&usercd=527009716&mode=launch

The QA is from 18.00 but don't miss earlier slides 13 and 16.

I watched this at 5 p.m: https://twitter.com/Ninepoint/status/1513504424299098119/photo/1

Several of us follow Eric Nuttall but the other guy was simply awesome. His name is Mike Rothman @ cornerstone

I'm desperate to listen again. Some of you are better at tracking stuff on the internet than me and it is important. This guy worked at the sharp end and his method of breaking down complex financial wizardry with a few pithy analogies or a simple put down is essential listening. His summing up of renewables was dismissive and they're either a mixture of "seawater and sunshine" or "fusion in a jar". The bit I'm after is the multiplier part of paper trades against actual. That is where many people go wrong. He was preaching to the converted with me.

I'd say it was one of the shortest and best 30 minutes you'll hear this year. I want to watch it again. If anyone comes across it please post on this message board. It probably isn't available yet but fills in some pretty big gaps.

Agree mrc but reading the RNS they has sold out at some stage and now back in. I don't trust the reporting of all these institutions but Schroders are blue-chip and usually play to the rules. I last had them at 5.55% as of 12 Mar 2021 (FT Nov 2021) but MorningStar had them at 1.05% (smaller cos) 24 Nov 2021.. I've instances where both the FT and MS have been wrong. I know that EnQuest itself is dubious and go through the register by hand once a month or so. It is really the only way imo and us humble shareholders cannot see the register.
I'm reading this as excellent news. Schroders aren't day traders. It rubber stamps the analyst raising of the TP.
Interesting that they left it till the market was closed. Smart money will take notice of this.
For once it looks like MS were closest and I did go through Schroders and Baillie Gifford myself around Nov time but my research skills in this area are poor. Basically because I give up but I did post at the time my findings.

Isn't that a win/win for both companies? Barakh can now use their team for another project where prices will be higher; EnQuest will have to sell there oil post repairs at a higher price? A bit of argy-bargy with a face saving settlement, pay the lawyers and get on with the important stuff. I once worked for a company owned by Gary Klesch, he never knew I existed but I do remember something he once said: "a company without any current legal suits isn't doing its job properly." I daresay Shell and BP are arguing fighting cases around the world.

*should have listened to myself about my failures at day-trading. Lost again on the Saturday (Grand National). Not a sniff though I expect to read tomorrow about BTfath's winning Tricast.