Member Info for romaron

Next winter is likely to be colder, assuming some degree of mean-reversion, implying more heating demand and higher consumption of gas, coal and electricity in one or more of the three major regions.

But all three regions are emerging from this winter with gas coal and oil inventories below the seasonal average, leaving them vulnerable to any disruption in supply or higher than anticipated consumption.

Policymakers in Europe and North America are determined to impose tough sanctions to punish Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which will likely reduce production of gas, coal and oil before the end of the year. Source: Reuters today

"Turkey in meltdown: Erdogan faces 42% inflation nightmare as economy cracks within" headline onon Bloomberg and Express (actually its 42.80%).
I think the smaller oilies scratching around for farm-ins and finance will struggle going forward. In this environment you have to convince the lender why you don't need the money. We're not in a bad postion by that measure. If Government want more drilling then best they change they change the narrative.
At present it is cheaper to purchase reserves from the stock market than through drill bits. With the windfall cloud still hanging around it will discourage drilling for new reserves. Labour can say what they like at present as they have no power. There is a strong element of realism around now and people aren't that stupid. I like to blame others for my mistakes but I seldom get away with it. Labour know this too. If they return to power it'll be a different story.

More colour on what RS said. The original question was to be expected and it appeals to many who are ignorant of the real facts:
"“What I don’t want to do is discourage investment in our own energy supplies, because we want to improve our energy security so we’re not reliant on importing lots of things from abroad.
“If we don’t see that type of investment coming forward and if the companies are not going to make those investments in our country and in our energy security, then of course that’s something I would look at.”
Sunak was posed the question in response to the soaring cost-of-living crisis – Labour has repeatedly called for an extra levy on North Sea profits in order to help address this.
In the Spring Statement in March, the Chancellor made no call for a windfall tax on the North Sea oil and gas sector.
However Office for Budget Responsibility figures showed that Treasury takings from the North Sea are expected to jump from £3.1bn in 2021/22 to £7.8bn in 22/23.

On a separate note. Juan that was hurtful. One of my distant cousins was a fatality in the Battle of the Little Big Horn a.k.a. Custer's last stand.
It was a case of poor timing which our family has a history of. He was actually on holiday and camping in the next field. He went across to complain about the noise.

Thanks Juan. Does appear so. Intriguing situation here. I'm promised a dividend by Q4. I understand there's been a shortage of them in the UK oil market? They use some strange speak here "sector leading dividend policy". I'm not used to it.

Be lucky

p.s. visiting times 2-3 p.m.

Good points Dumbly - this doesn't tell much but was in a communication I had with IR on 12 Jan this year (pre-war).
"Regarding windfall tax – yes, if (ever) enacted in a similar way to prior “raids” we would expect to be able to use our tax losses to shield us. Of course, they could implement a new tax, which would then require us to review its rules and applicability of our tax position etc."

It sets a precedent for a country that likes to promote itself as a safe base that making losses is your problem but if you make a profit we can take from it. They wouldn't try it on Amazon and the like. It would encourage companies to set up elsewhere imo. Bit of an empty threat and the wrong time to use it. Truth of the matter is that fossil fuels were too cheap and this is closer to the real cost. The trillions spent on renewables are showing a very poor return. Funny nobody talking about how solar, hydrogen and wind can answer Russia's threats? Mitigate yes, but it'll be decades before oil & gas stop being used.

Hi M - I've given up trying to understand the front end. Are Russia producing more or releasing from their SPR? Are China taking notes on the West's response to Ukraine and building up oil reserves? We could each make our own list and every country in the world has an interest or a plan. Oil at $100 says it all really. Does kinda strengthen the strategic reserves argument and for now using the SPR is the equivalent of kicking the ball down the road. They're gonna need a lot of concrete once this war is over. They thought it would be a bonanza when Syria gets rebuilt. Ukraine will dwarf that. Making cement requires a lot of fossil fuel (heat). It is a mess and not as predictable an outcome as many were hoping (on both sides). And XR protest over here?

....wasn't aimed at you Auson.

"Back to the same old EnQuest" is a misnomer. "Back to the same old regurgitated rubbish" more like. Markets and the world are in turmoil so any wonder markets are thinner than usual.
I think today has been a decent day and am heartened by the Z.F.G. RNS

Hi auson - you follow it more closely than me. I didn't even notice the dip or IEA. Not a trader.

They make it look like a BUY but if it was done early this morning it would have been a SELL. Recording/reporting wasn't done by a machine. I think an early morning SELL personally but with what's happening in the world how do you know somebody wasn't covering losses elsewher etc...

Thinking about it Z.F.G. even the RBL lenders might be glad or at least not resist removal of the covenant. Recent events mean that EnQuest has a stronger hand in negotiations anyway. It pays to stay sweet with your better customers. There is competition among lenders too. There are other sources of finance but best to deal with who you know.

Excellent and timely Z.F.G. For me in corporate speak that means "if we reset/rollover the HYN's we will also get the RBL covenant removed and make dividend payments possible, this is in no part due to investor pressure." The fact that they have already reset the RB is a good indicator of their intent bondwise. I mean if Voldermort O&G can pay dividend with $3bn of debt and lower production than us what is stopping us. Happy days.

Well done.

Well I've done better than Putin and taken over this message board in a bloodless coup. Everybody agrees with me and we are relaxed. I've answered my own question about 'medium term' according to the analyst consensus and it is at FY 2024. That is a year earlier than I pencilled in but will stick with 2025. Using McDan's projection for oil we could be milking it whilst the gas projections pricewise could be understated (that's why I've bought in). So far all hunky dory but it's only my first day.

There is always the possibility that they don't really want a PI following and we are pilot fish to them. I hope that is the case. The 24 March presentation by Mathios Rigas was remarkable to me raised on rather predictable and defensive replies to questions I usually experience. It may be down to the natural ebullience of the Greek nature (I live in North London and still getting over their success in Euros 2004) but he has a brashness and confidence quite unusual in CEO's when speaking in public. I particularly liked the markers he puts down and reference to ongoing contracts and even about speaking to Vitol on a contract for oil not even out of the ground yet.
Maybe we're missing a point here?
Maybe we are pilot fish and he isn't interested in us. His target is to go from 40k boepd to 200k boepd in the Medium Term. I'd like some views on what he means by Medium Term - I'm guessing end 2025). That would move us from the FTSE250 into FTSE100 imo. That would bring in bigger funds that still buy into fossil fuels and the rest is as they say history. PI's can do what they like as he has bigger fish to fry and also a large percentage of his own wealth tied up (11.20%). [Interestingly the EnQuest CEO has a similar percentage holding]
There must be a reason why they went public earlier in their growth than Chrysaor and perhaps there are guidelines to be drawn from it? In both cases PI's weren't/aren't that important imo.
The credit rating is in the same band as EnQuest but you raised HYN's at a much better rate than EnQuest and other UK oil companies. With the amounts involved that will be smart money and they liked what they saw.
There isn't much to expect until Karish is pumping but looking forward to the ups and downs. More ups I hope.

EnQuest's fate is also dictated by a FPSO. I'm relaxed that the Karish field fpso has Greek owners as they have a pretty good name in shipping. There are so many cross over/coincidences that this almost déjà vu for me. It is also like moving to big school.

Best,

Hi guys, I come in peace. I wanted more exposure to gas and went through the beauty parade of UK quoted stocks and chose you lot. There is an absence of posts on here and I in my simplistic way put it down to 2 reasons. The price is high in relation to other oil stocks with many being 'penny stocks' where people can hold millions of shares. (I have a large holding in EnQuest and there are many similarities with Energean but they are priced in pennies.)
The other reason is that I believe that whilst they would like a wider shareholding they are aware there is more work to be done in making it an attractive proposition to the PI. For me you remind me of Chrysaor but using a slightly different route. I think a good example of this is the position I took this morning. It isn't particularly large but the biggest at this time of posting.
I use this for details of trades https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/ENOG/energean-plc/trade-recap?page=18
2178 at 8.38
1721 at 8.43
101 at 8.46
SIPP, ISA and the 101 to make it an easy to remember 4,000 shares.
This stock is pleasantly day-trader free but algos behave like the pilot fish following sharks and I probably fed a few of them.

There is always risk involved in buying any share and there are plenty of reasons to avoid this stock as well and they do say "beware of Greeks bearing gifts"

Be Lucky

One correction there mrc. It isn't a recommendation. I quite good at getting things wrong too. WTF would I post spam anyway? Only the infantile really believe they can influence the price. Bit like shouting for your team from the terraces. It's mainly just noise. There are some important indicators between the two but I sure as hell don't know how I'd bring it to a message board. Do I post on one forum and then run over to the other for a response from the other 'team'?

Surprising response from you L7. The whole point of the post is that they have debt and lower production but are prepared to commit to a dividend. Unless you use viable comparisons you are on a hiding to nothing. It raises a different view and brings a fresh approach. Happy to comply with your demands by not mentioning Energean again. This board has needed an administrator for some time. Plenty of relevance to EnQuest but I don't believe in handfeeding information and expect people to think for themselves.

I intend to be there. Sofitel was where the last physical AGM was. Be nice to see some new faces.

I have bought some new oil stock that is heavy into gas, Energean (ENOG). It is definitely under the radar and if you look at their page there are more RNS's than there are message posts.
I'll go into more depth and my reasons for picking them later but I like that they raised $2.5bn in March 2021 with lower production than us and they aren't aiming at the small private investor. For me they are another Chrysaor but their compelling story is the Eastern Mediterranean and with what is happening above them in Ukraine suggests that security of supply becomes even more important. The visit to Energean by the Mark Menezes Mark Menezes, the U.S. Department of Energy Under Secretary of Energy, at its offshore facilities in Kavala, Eastern Macedonia, Greece in 2018 indicates they have the support and backing of both the US and Israel. That is important with what is happening in Central Europe.
Of course the big attraction is that even with the high level of borrowing they have committed to paying $1bn of dividend by end 2025 (3.5 years). As the CEO says the company does not intend to be "a never ending investment story".

Fot those who have time find the 24 March video their FY 2021 Presentation. Illuminating.

Hi Tim - well at least you're having the same problem as me. At the back of my mind there is something like they must announce within 3 weeks so maybe they have until Thursday.

Hi Pelle - I cannot find out officially when and where the AGM is. I shouldn't have to approach IR for this information. Is the information available on the internet or am I just not looking in the right place?