Member Info for romaron

This is a suggestion but I still need to put something in that requires an answer.

Dear Rachel, today you tweeted “We need a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants to freeze bills this spring.” Whilst I agree with the sentiment doesn’t this fall into the trap set by John Redwood and makes us, the Labour Party, collude with the Tories in self harm? We are already seeing this happen. The oil and gas giants, (basically only BP and Shell) make only a very small percentage of their profits in extracting fossil fuels from the North Sea and evade most of the EPL instituted by the Tory Government. Those punished are in fact the exact companies we need to enable the transition to a greener future. Harbour Energy are not interested in investing in the North Sea and only last week EnQuest said more or less the same. The EPL at 75% is already causing irreparable damage to the oil and gas industry and you wish to heap more fuel onto the pyre. The exodus from the North Sea could turn from a trickle into a flood.
75% of Zero = Zero with the added problem that we’ll have to import more fossil fuels because the transition is impossible without them. How do we balance the books when we are the next government without the revenues from oil and gas. Build less hospitals?

You risk undoing all the great work you put in at Davos when you said “With labour in government, Britain will be open for business.” It won't [be open] if you tax the life out of it!

That kind of rhetoric might work well in London but we are a lot more suspicious lot around here.

The bonds have hardly moved ($HYN not at all) which is always a good marker and the exaggerated fall was caused by a short of EnQuest of 0.57% on Friday (c.10.75 mio shares) by Citadel.
https://www.fca.org.uk/search-results?search_term=short%20positions%20daily
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They may be right, they may be wrong but I doubt they know much more than us. They also shorted Harbour so maybe it was to do with Bressay? Don't know and TBH don't really care because there are bigger drivers around. The algorithms and MMs attract algobots as well as traders in momentum and whatever trading gods they follow. It could even be a hedge or a leg of an arbitrage. What it isn't is capitulation by a large holder. Now that would worry me more.

I thought your content was excellent highlighting the imbalance between the EPL effect on smaller NS producers who are closer to 100% UK than the global majors who are under 5%? The public will be unaware of this as most just notice headlines, clickbait and soundbites. The transition won't work without O&G or second rung producers.
The UK went for Brexit & independence from the biggest trading bloc in the world but want to be led by them regarding energy and weakening our competitiveness. The rest of Europe is mainly giving up what it never had (or had exhausted).
They're also conflating gas with oil and it was the price of gas that caused the crisis because of the system of pricing and demonisation of the industry. We're a country embarrassed by having a product that the r.o.w. apart from Europe seems to want. They are putting a lot of faith into wind when our fossil reserves remain valuable and strategic assets.
I'm not totally against twitter but unless you have a following you're unlikely to get retweeted. Doesn't mean we can't attempt to contact or give ideas to those with a big following on twitter and maybe they'll use it or retweet?
Look at the effort we put into posting here and I expect most of my direct communications go straight into the bin.
We're in a bubble to an extent but so too are politicians and environmental activists. I'm waiting for pragmatism to return.
We're due a break soon.

I was watching Countryfile on BBC last night purely because it mentioned green energy. There is a project to extend the National Grid. It is a bit like the railways and following on from our HS2 success they intend to run something called East Anglia Green from Norwich to Tilbury. Electricity demand is expected to grow in the area from 3,500 megawatt to 23,000 megawatt by 2030. The "National Planning System" has based its plans on overhead pylons. The locals don't like this. They've asked why can't they have an underground or undersea cable like the Scottish have (might be something to do with mountains and the jocks having the most and best wind but we'll be confiscating that now Sturgeon has gone).
Later in the programme I think I spotted the real reason. It'll cost £1bn by overhead cable but offshore undersea would cost over £5bn (they aren't considering going through cities or back gardens).
I'm a little concerned that 9X Ed hasn't factored this in and also worried about the civil war that could erupt between the Nimbys and the Greens.
Nothing money (huge amounts) can't solve.

*there's apparently 17 projects in the pipeline, sorry gridline.

Hi Dumbly - this will sound rude and it's not meant to. I think you're one of the better posters and I always think "not so dumb, Dumbly" when I read them but I think your tweet was a waste of time. Not for its content but the vehicle/platform of delivery, Twitter. I couldn't find it but luckily my daughter is here for a few days and helped me locate your tweet. It had 4 views and I am the fifth. If the host is relatively well known or a busy board they can soon disappear off the feed.
When I occasionally go on twitter it is often like visiting an angry message board and stuff just gets lost among the huge amounts of guff, rage and rare pieces of useful information. This [EnQuest] message board is one of the better ones imo but you still need judicious use of the Filter and to know who to trust or take notice of.
I have started writing letters rather than emails in the past month. They are tidier, easier (for me) to recall/file and get a better reaction. My suggestions are:
Write to your MP. You can put pressure on if they don't answer and recorded delivery is cheap.
I would ask everybody to do this using some of the excellent arguments that are coming through.
I have written to my MP and the Lord Mayor of London.
My MP won't be much use as his role is Shadow Minister for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs.
Personally I am more interested in trying to pin Labour down. Politicians are skilled but we can play them at their own game. Even a 'refused to answer', a glib reply or an evasion that is so pathetic may be worth repeating. Having them double down can have benefits too.
What I would wish for and here other posters and readers can help. Find an individual who lives in Doncaster North constituency (Ed Miliband) or Holborn and St. Pancras (Keir Starmer) and get them to let you use their address to get a written reply (could even be a grannie etc..)
If we build any momentum we can possibly grow from here. I tend not to post on other message boards and they can be remarkably partisan but I would encourage those that do to spread the message. A good idea or argument stands whether it's on TLW, HBR, SQZ etc..
As usual there will be a period of stasis until 15 March but we should apply as much pressure as we can individually. maybe later we can form into some kind of group but we have to start somewhere.

*I picked my daughter up today from Heathrow on the redeye. She is a visiting fellow at Brown and will later show me the slides from a lesson from Al Gore's head of comms whilst she was there. I hope to learn something. My daughter had no objection to the additional carbon footprint from my (unpaid) chauffer service.

Hi KO - we have no idea what transpired leading up to Equinor relinquishing their share of Bressay. Harbour's motive is pretty well documented and I'd say they were reluctant holders and it was a hangover from Premier. One thing for sure though is that the NSTA and politicians have been made aware; whether they're listening is another matter. C2 reserves are now close to worthless unless there is a change of government policy; especially around the EPL. The C2 reserves could be extremely valuable to the UK but presently it seems we intend to import future oil and give the jobs and profits to other countries. We've done it with other industries so we shouldn't be surprised.
The real reason though is more prosaic imo. Only EnQuest was prepared to hang on in there and/or there were no other buyers. I base this on the precedent of First Oil (10.5% 2016) when they pulled out of Kraken. We were the only ones prepared to take it - we had little choice. Same here. Presently most undeveloped oil fields are like the stray dogs that only kind people want to adopt.
The messages to the government and opposition are quite clear to me. It isn't EnQuest doing the damage.

Someone should explain to both parties that 75% of ZERO=ZERO

Another way of looking at it is that we can make up the loss of revenue by building less hospitals.

Public Domain
==============
At the 20 July Environmental Audit Committee
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/09e28c6c-4afa-48e8-aae2-d73485784719
First part below is the evisceration of Linda Cook by a combination of half-truths and misrepresentation:
14:43:20 Khan says on renewables “which are at the moment 4X cheaper than gas”
15:23:10 Lucas says “Linda Cook on something you said people buy oil and gas not because they like it but because it’s cheaper, can we just clarify that we do accept that renewables are 4X cheaper than gas”
Then later in the same exchange
15:23;50 “be quite careful with language and it is the case that renewables are 4X cheaper than gas.”
-----------------------------
With their success at getting away with this exaggeration they built upon it and in November doubled down:
6 Nov 2022 Ed Miliband – Sunday with Laura Kuensberg “solar and wind power is 9X cheaper than fossil fuels.”
6 Nov 2022 Adrian Ramsey – Green Party on Sky TV used the 9X quote
8 Nov 2022 – Sam Johnson juststopoil LBC “renewables are 9X cheaper than fossil fuels”
10 Nov 2022 Question Time - Caroline Lucas Green Party 44:00
“rather than chasing after more gas which is 9X more expensive than renewables”
There are no doubt more that I didn’t catch.
05/01/2023 in Keir Starmer’s New Year Speech he said “"renewables are 9X cheaper than IMPORTED fossil fuels".
And at Davos 19/01/2023 on a CNBC WEF Forum again repeated that “in the UK renewables are 9X cheaper than oil and gas”

This seems to be the source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-low-price-for-uk-offshore-wind-is-four-times-cheaper-than-gas/

*juststopoil activists revert to the Carbon Brief 9X quote and some have on their phones as "evidence".

Hi Mansardman - we don't actually know what the companies are doing to fight back? Workers strike and companies stop investing when unhappy; or leave. If you contact a company they will always have to be measured in their response because their reply can quickly turn up on a message board. The reporting of the update in Saturday's Times had the headline "Windfall tax means less investment for EnQuest" - job done in the sense that the message from two of the top remaining companies (ENQ+HBR) in the NSCS is sayonara.
I don't actually think there is much Enquest (or HBR) could have done to affect the outcomes and geopolitics are beyond anyone's control and you have to roll with the punches.
If the company is at fault I will be among the first to aggressively question them but most of what I see is they are attacked for not foreseeing world events (shale, Covid, Ukraine etc.). Unfortunately a once a year AGM just isn't good enough but I've seen many companies that lean the opposite way have even worse relationships. They all change when things go wrong. Take Serica for instance. I saw only one poster stand up against the message board there which (imo) hadn't accepted the fact that O&G companies aren't worth a lot and if the emphasis is gas you're valued even less (Tailwind deal).
You may remember that I wrote that I asked AB at the last AGM "why not run the company into the ground, UK wise?" and he said that "it doesn't work that way". Maybe it does now. I will ask him again this year.
I will continue to lobby directly with various institutions because we have a freedom denied to politicians and companies which of course is spoiled by our lack of leverage and cohesion. Whingeing is the favoured option which whilst comforting doesn't really move you forward.
My dream is that a group will form and attract some funding (like juststopoil) with a website, catchy name and some individuals prepared to assist the media when they request comments from both sides. At the moment it seems there is always one empty seat.

First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for O&G investors
And I did not speak out
Because of government energy support
Then they came for any company making a profit
Then they came for me but it was too late
And there was no one left
To speak out for me (or pay the bills)

“I saw Mary, mother of Jesus, floating outside Waitrose in a ball of light yesterday!”

Do you believe that statement? This is the paradox. You kinda did before. But now you don’t. Practically everybody thinks there’s “something out there” and judging by some posters these message boards have more than their fair share.
People often believe something until there is evidence. They then change from an unthinking acceptance to becoming sceptical. Forget aliens and think of something ubiquitous and that is religion which is why I used it as an example. It could have been any religion but I had to pick one. Maybe a vision of Mary is a little over the top but many millions of Christians around the world will go to Church today. As long as no crackpot says he has a direct line to God this will continue ad infinitum.
For the majority religion is tolerated because it doesn’t really interfere with us. I think the whole climate change debate has elements of this but to keep it simple I’m only interested in the “renewables 9X cheaper than fossil fuels”.
To call them out we need to forcefully push for evidence. The onus is on them to prove it but they escape because of this awful paradox that if you can get into people’s subconscious through repetition (cant) and confidently carry it off like a Donald Trump or a Boris Johnson [MAGA and ‘Get Brexit Done’] you have won.
I cannot believe the industry hasn’t challenged this claim especially as gas prices are at a 17 month low. It is cowardly and defies logic. Can we not rebut arguments produced by simpletons or people denying the benefits and need for fossil fuels now and throughout the transition; where is our champion?

Thanks Dumbly - it's the granular detail that interests me. The authorities have the advantage. Once the experts go over the results we may get a different picture to the so called "bids". Are they just extensions to manage the existing declining fields or are there any bids that show a desire to extend production to aid the transition? Natural declines mean that the NS will be over in a decade at any scale.

Despite record cash generation, supermajors are investing $100bn less in upstream capex than a decade ago as low-cost, low-emissions projects take priority. Energy Voice today.

We're merely following their lead on the "low-cost" priority.

Followed by "Scarce high quality oil and gas supplies a threat to ‘healthy energy transition’, says WoodMac"

Surprise, surprise.

*Jesus had to rush, his mum, Mary appeared to collect him.

"To date their views have fallen on deaf ears" - that is proven by government and oppostion statements and actions. The appeasement to mass hysteria has led to this and we now have gas at a 17 month low (Bloomberg yesterday). We are back at a level before all the hullabaloo.
We haven't heard the result of the 33rd licensing round - any help here? I am considering a FOI.

*I was having a chat with Jesus this morning after he had had coffee with Stanley. It was interesting to say the least.

If it stays like this it is an open goal for bodies like OEUK. Penalising an essential industry long term for a temporary spike out of their control surely goes against everything that the Tory Party supposedly stands for. Labour are perched and a sitting target to explain why MY electricity bill isn't 9X cheaper. Come on UK O&G companies; don't be shy.

European natural gas futures slumped below €50 a megawatt-hour for the first time in 17 months as the region’s worst energy crisis in decades recedes, but with signs that further price declines are unlikely. Bloomberg

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Can we have our money back please?

Last night QT Stephen Kinnock (Labour) on energy companies and "a windfall of war" said in a way that indicates UK O&G companies were somehow complicit.

Stakeholders might push back NQM. Shareholders come on here only to whinge. Somebody will have to break it to them that it doesn't do anything. Bit like a comfort blanket.

That's unfair Mansardman. I am a champion whinger and it is one of my favourite pastimes. I do though take it seriously away from this message board. Anonymity
I'm sure there is pushback but almost always out of the public eye and certainly away from us shareholders. Companies don't have the anonymity that we hide behind on here. I'm even wondering why the update today? Friday is a day for burying bad news.
Companies almost always lose out in the manipulated court of public opinion. O&G "obscene profits" goes unchallenged. The industry didn't invade Ukraine. I have offered my services to fight back against the environmental activists to anybody who wants them and therin lies the problem. There isn'ty anybody hiring.
Meanwhile politicians and deluded "activists" and cross bearers continue to promulgate.

*juststopoil still looking for members

Science is built with facts as a house is with stones, but a collection of facts is no more a science than a heap of stones is a house. -Jules Henri Poincaré, mathematician, physicist, and philosopher (29 Apr 1854-1912)

BJ - It still applies but as this is basically a company that operates in the North Sea it seems unlikely that "it", in new field terms, will be built here because of political uncertainty. Most intelligent people understand that. The demand for oil isn't going away. Doing business in the UK has become unpredictable and high risk.

Well today's RNS has already cratered that headline. Sweet 14 and falling is today's [headline]. If we aren't drilling Kraken then it is bad news for Bressay/Bentley and the UK. Sweet 14 doesn't have the same ring about it and is anyway in Gary Glitter territory.
Mind you the way we've been treated we might use some of that legislation to argue our case. We have been well and truly f*cked without our consent. I am left wondering, in this 'new age' of woke politics, where the next 'money tree' will be found? I would advise people not to get old or ill.
I expected a grim statement from EnQuest because anything positive is likely to attract political piranhas who feed off 'obscene profits' and we have the smiling hangman's Spring Budget in 26 days. I hope the industry has collected facts and data to argue their case because presently the term "energy security" is an empty phrase.
Plenty of whingeing today on here but understandable as we have nowhere else to go to express our anger and frustration. Meanwhile, both parties should pay attention to Dickens. “Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six , result happiness.
Annual income five pounds (due to less oil tax revenues), annual expenditure twenty two pounds ought and six (inflation adjusted), result misery”.
Before anybody says my sums don't make sense I would just say Ed Miliband thinks they're fine. Five pounds is really twenty five pounds because costs are now negative and anyway it's the Tories fault.

Actually I'm doing some historical research and windmills were being used in the UK in the 12th Century. I'm trying to establish why they moved away from them to coal and steam because they definitely had wind in those times and I'm pretty confident it was FREE. I think though in those days coal wasn't 9X more expensive and in fact you got cheaper and more accessible energy with steam power. Now, with the reverse alchemy of the renewable industry you can wish a number that even Vivienne Westwood (RIP) would be happy with. It has totally transformed the economics of the industry. I hope that helps.