Member Info for romaron

Joking aside I think the majority of UK voters, especially Scotland, are envious of the respect that Norway has shown towards their oil and gas industry. Yes, there are emission problems but the benefits of fossil fuels are real and have improved the lot of humankind. Most problems are down to the population explosion. There is a resistance to the abolishment of fossil fuels in the UK. There is resignation at present due to the complete mismanagement of the economy, NHS, Police, railways etc.. but I think most people know fundamentally we will require O&G for decades yet.
We hold some very good cards.

Whilst the UK follows the CND pattern and wants to basically outlaw fossil fuels. Energy security, what's that! Is it even necessary? Mr. Putin is misunderstood and never wanted a conflict in the first place. Just because you're a land grabbing dictator doesn't automatically make you a bad person. This cold spell is alleviating the NHS bed crisis. All we need is a decent bout of flu and pneumonia and problem solved. Meanwhile the tiny country of Norway can look after Europe's energy security.

And people said this government didn't have a plan.

Is that the same Shell in The Times today; Shell Energy Retail. The one considering quitting Britain's household energy supply market putting 2,000 jobs at risk? After incurring hundreds of millions of pound in losses over five years. The subsidiary provides energy to about 1.4m homes, ranking as Britain's 7th biggest household supplier. It also supplies broadband to 500,000 households.
It's also ducking out of household energy supplies in Holland and Germany. Blaming unsustainable pricing by new suppliers (mostly bust now) and price cap tariffs.

I should keep a tally. So a potential 1,000 new jobs in West Yorkshire against 2,000 losses in Coventry. They need Stanley to tell them how to do it.

It is all about zealotry and propaganda with oil and gas currently losing the media war. Government like to be seen to be doing something and worrying about our, or more correctly, their future. O&G is used as a distraction because they have successfully tagged us as rapacious capitalists feeding off the cold and hungry. They have shifted the blame onto us and not content with driving the business towards extinction want to extract the residual profits. I would imagine that there is quite a lot of resentment in the industry and a feeling of non-cooperation. Basically, governments have conceded to the activists because the majority of voters couldn't really care less about the environment but do worry about energy bills. Bit like religion really. Based largely on myth and superstition.

The results of the 33rd Licensing round are being pored over and they will indicate the industry appetite for continuing. Are they state secrets or commercially sensitive? I'd be very tempted to wander out of EnQuest's office and into OEUK's or at least invite themn out for a drink. We are both in the same building.

*I wonder if the Bressay farmout by Equinor was to make the field politically more acceptable to the UK. It predates the war so we have quite a good argument on energy securit grounds to make it happen?

You don't offend me Stanley. Each to their own when it comes to self-pleasuring. I include you with the loonies.

Divisive? Not only are they intent on killing the O&G industry we're expected to pay for the bullets. Profits? They're already looting the returns.

First the vikings now this. On BBC Question Time last night.

“Why do we outsource jobs, production and half our CO2 emissions to overseas countries, often to tyrannical regimes” asked Konstatin Kisin, a satirist and political commentator.
The Tory guy was halfway through the predictable response (highly skilled and paid green jobs replacing them) quoting British Steel (uncompetitive?) when Tracy Brabin the Mayor of West Yorkshire barged in. She claimed that we are not outsourcing jobs and “we have just created a 1,000 green jobs in West Yorkshire for young people”. https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/19873228.work-make-west-yorkshire-leader-green-skills-begun/
The use of ‘Taskforce’ and ‘pledge’ suggest there is work still to be done. Of course KK was thrown as you can’t prepare for everything and she could have been telling the truth. She wasn’t.
However she did add that she saw a future with “wind farms in Swansea paying for schools in Stockholm” being one of the benefits from this green revolution during the “climate emergency”. Talk about brave new world and I didn’t realise things were so grim in Sweden, maybe we can arrange some foreign aid? No wonder Greta is so upset.

Later KK made the point that energy security is of paramount importance. Being half Russian and half Ukranian I’m guessing he understands the situation a little better than the other guests. It seems we will be ready for any future aggression with slingshots, sailing boats and gliders though.

Recent research has found that the high cost of energy has increased deaths from hypothermia. There also seems to be a significant majority of victims aged over 60. Data is still being collected but early analysis indicates that age plays a large part in people dying. It is also apparent that the numbers go up when it is cold. This is a medical phenomenon known as winter.

This is all the fault of the oil and gas industry who are charging 9X the price of renewables. source: anyone from the green activists.

He's obsessed with me mrc. I've never had a stalker before. He posts more on here than the other companies where he shares his "wisdom" and purports to be a holder.
He repeats all the slogans and ignorance that the juststopoil propound. I'm still trying to work out how we'll pay for the damage the dreamers and basket weavers will cause.
"If London met the WHO guideline for PM2.5 by 2030, the population in London would gain a 20 per cent increase in life years saved over the next 20 years." I've no idea what that means ; I thought ULEZ was to fund Sadiq Khan's splashing the cash?
Note: they add that there is no clear evidence of a safe level of exposure. source: Mayor of London Assembly.

If they're right then how the hell will the NHS cope with the increased geriatric numbers? London is expensive - why not move out?

p.s. I drink as well.

Hi L7 - yes it was poorly written, sorry. I was interested that you could see benefits from the EPL when clearly Harbour couldn't. I hope you're right and you make a case. We are lucky to have some tax losses which give us some protection whilst we see what the Tories do to mitigate the [EPL] action and what Labour will (really) do when the likelihood is that they win the next election.

Plato is older than most religions and just as ineffectual and unreal as them imo. I liken the Green movement to a religion but where there is advantage or a cheaper way then that's the way the majority go. All great in theory (religion and renewables) but not in real life. Aren't we glad we kept our military (although much reduced).
I still value self-interest and that means they/we need to keep the O&G industry going. Whatever the time-scale there is long enough for us to get a good return on this investment but you can understand those that have sold out or avoided the industry not being in a rush to get back in. I don't know but imagine there aren't a great many shorts on O&G stocks at the moment and it is the windfall tax that hurt us. The fundamentals are still there with a decent life in them. Whether the government will allow them to be proifitable remains to be seen.
Just being anti-Tory doesn't make you a socialist and I'm quite envious of the Scottish politics. I'd rather trust them with O&G as most I've ever met are pretty clued up and fully aware that they have a valuable resource that enables other parts of the economy to benefit. [NHS for example and where's our 40 new hospitals?]
The fact is that unless government can create an equable framework for the O&G industry they will be left with cleaner air and an agrarian economy feeding Accountants largely based in London. Everything else will be imported.

*Tullow held their bond gains of yesterday.

I'd already googled EVT. Thanks. A question L7. You see the benefits of the EVT and I accept that the other part of the equation is government action and the price of oil after you've committed the capital. If common sense ever comes back in fashion over ideology then we can continue in the North Sea.
Harbour have a different view it seems but is that as much to do that their scale is now closer to a major's ?
Is the North Sea now entering a period of faster decline that doesn't work for large O&G companies. The balance to that is that smaller more nimble companies with fill the fast decreasing space (rhetorical).

Excellent work BTW.

I follow Tullow bonds . Not because I'm invested there but only to compare them to EnQuest. Tullow were highlighting Net Debt down to $1.9bn but the actual bonds oustanding are for $2.6bn. Their Net Debt to EBITDAX is not as good as ours but they may well be better positioned in other areas.
I only loosely follow the production and other business but because I'm invested here I track our $bond and automatically record the TLW latest prices.
We all know that Debt and capital allocation are important drivers and equity holders come off badly if they get on the wrong side of the Bond market which dwarfs the equity market. The Bond market also has greater resources imo than the equity market and aren't as forgiving for any transgressions or poor performance. That is why I follow our bond performance.
There is the odd interesting post on the TLW board and as always there are intelligent and knowledgeable contributions. having said that I'd still rather take the opinion of the Bond market.
Today their 4 bonds jumped impressively but no comments on their message board. It is an excellent signal. For a market that moves in fractions of a per cent the 7% bonds jumped by 4.46% and 5.49% and the 10.25% by 2.58% and 2.61%

We had no announcements and moved up a 1/4%. Our update could be very interesting next month. We could well do far better than Tullow.

Use the talents you possess, for the woods would be a very silent place if no birds sang except the best. -Henry van Dyke, poet (10 Nov 1852-1933)

Hi KO - you could probably lose me with jargon from your own trade/business and I wouldn't even notice if you threw in some total gibberish. Stupmy is harmless and I've just read the Tullow board and he is so far out it's embarrassing but "stopped clocks" and all that. They had a trading update today which I'd suggest has more impact. He's using chart numbers from before the update. Charts don't run oil comnpanies. Production and debt are much better measures. I've also heard that the oil price matters.

Appreciate that Stevo. Been out all afternoon but worthwhile as I spent it with a cousin who was trying to finance a hotel catering for Hinkley Point management visiting or being seconded from China and France. The problem was the delays but he is very knowledgeable about nuclear. He is also close to many from the renewables camp and has met Dale Vince and Caroline Lucas. One of his surprising complaints was the lack of knowledge from the renewable camp and how it damages their argument. I said that I would happily educate them and have put him on the spot to get me into a meeting. It is revolutionary but meeting in the middle might open a dialogue.
L7, I know exactly what you mean. I had a one-to-one with AB at the AGM when I said "just run the UK operation into the ground and walk away with the dosh". He replied that "it doesn't work that way" which at least meant (to me) that we remain focused on the NS but I could easily have misread the comment. Like expert interviewers (which I'm not) you need good timing and to couch the question in a way that is harder for them to sidestep. I have to rely on sniping. Having said that they cannot give information that is not public knowledge but it still gives a pretty wide ranging list of responses. A favourite is that the analysts said "this" and it is tantamount that they haven't challenged their [analysts] workings.
On nuclear he said the greens now embrace it but the third reactor won't happen. He then rambled something about hydrogen which I just told him was nonsense. He also promoted tidal which he claims can works as storage/battery. I asked about silt and we changed the subject.

Hi Stevo - I'm just playing devil's advocate and hopefully by gently prodding or disagreeing with you and others I get a fuller reaction. I'm certainly no accountant and neither are the majority on here. Most are above average intelligence and can get their head around what (for example) you and L7 write. My big beef is that we have amateurs dictating the speed of the transition and politicians (9X) telling lies. I am probably going to vote Labour at the next election and that is as much to do with the damage the Tories have done to this country. "Levelling up" was a massive con and the Northerners won't forgive them. Incidentally there are more accountants than there are oil and gas workers in this country.
I am very disappointed in the OEUK's fight back against the lies and misrepresentation and have written to them. I think there is a resource available to them from the thousands of retail investors united by message boards. We can do and say things they cannot.
I know something about journalism because my daughter is one. Like Tessa Khan she gets invited or asked to comment on panels, by outfits like the BBC or Times radio, has spoken at the UN and recently spoke on a WHO panel next to Michael J. Ryan (who sadly will leave his post with social media abuse being one of the reasons). My daughter is small fry compared to him and cannot get anything changed but she looks good on paper. Organisations always try to get a counter view on panels or events but I don't see it working to often in regards to renewables.
We posters here might be unimportant but many have a decent amount invested. If we can retaliate and help cancel out the propaganda when it is full of lies and half-truths we might get some public attention. My fear is that renewables are now being treated like a religion with activists acting like jihadists. Rant over.

You're wrong about Fusion and I know that fields take forever to reach production but the capacity is there to fast track B&B but maybe not the will. I am still a strong believer in O&G but unfortunately the Western world is in the grip of a new cult. My reason for staying invested is because of one man, the Sultan of Brunei. I'll explain one day.
I only want to ensure I've got the gist of EPL and the rebates which you and L7 have been extremely helpful in explaining more fully and simply. Thanks again.

Another article quotes the UK chief executive of Kia saying that electric cars are not viable on a commercially viable basis and has no immediate plans for a mass-market electric product. There are next to no electric cars under £30k compared to entry level petrol at c. £20k.
EV's are becoming part of the Rolex wearing personal number plate crowd. I looked at one but I don't do the miles to make one viable. If I had to use public charging it would be a definite NEVER.
2/3rds of the 267k EV's registered are fleet cars. 54k Teslas.
Cheap Chinese imports could change that. They're still using coal to make them.

I should add that our existing tax losses put us in an enviable position compared to our size. Harbour have them too but they have a scaled down impact. Nothing to do with EPL but real and present.

And the corollary to the corollary is that if you build a super-duper new field the EPL tax regime for earnings extends the period of waiting for returns and payback, including capex outlay which doesn't come from thin air; most has to be paid before the field is producing. Old field which payback quickly look the only game in town. The NS is losing critical mass.

imo.
2. Tessa Khan is a lawyer and seems a professional activist. No mention of where she was born but educated in Australia. The organisation has in 7 rounds received $689M. "Their latest funding was raised on Jan 7, 2021 from a Debt Financing round. Uplift is funded by 12 investors. Atalaya Capital and Credit Suisse are the most recent investors." None of them are UK based. Motivation, hazy. Tessa Khan is often rolled out for comment and for example, to fill a chair on Question Time. She is good in front of a camera.

3. We should not underestimate Rachel Reeves. She may be on a mission.

Read it a bit late. Some relevance to us in it.
1. Steve Brown of Orcadian promoting his business as part of an article about the likelihood of the construction industry struggling to reach emission targets. SB is pushing for more fiscal support for the goal of energy security.
2. " Tessa Khan, executive director of Uplift , the campaign group, said that O&G companies should not be 'hitting up the public for the costs of cleaning their operations at a time when they are already making obscene profits at our expense'.
She urged the government to 'ditch this massive subsidy for international O&G companies in the spring budget'."
This was part of her accusation that taxpayers will be paying O&G companies through generous tax breaks as we've been discussing today.
3. Carillion, the biggest UK corporate collapseof modern times is still winding its way through British Courts 5 years after its demise. It was however the making of Rachel Reeves. She became a star of the future when, as chairwoman of the business committee, she questioned the dramatis personnae during the Carillion inquiry. An economist by training, any incredulity she showed was tempered by her ability to skewer the issues at hand. The need for corporate, regulatory and audit reform and a desire for capitalism to act in the interest of society will have been seared into her policymaking DNA.

And why would you spend that on an asset that may be redundant before you have a chance to earn back the outlay? A falling oil price wouldn't do us any favours either. We've seen how hard it is to guess the year end oil price. How do you feel about guessing the price at the end of 2024 and 2025?
I'd rather have the money as buyback or dividend. Is Bressay a goer? Using L7's figure of 54% we wouldn't break even for (say) 3 years with the threat of Labour moving goal posts on a whim. I doubt AB is totally risk averse but the company isn't into sky-diving and you deserve a premium for taking that risk. It isn't there in the figures and as for exploration - forget it.