Member Info for romaron

Good post Zippy - you have to get behind the noise. I doubt very much that AB and team are trapped in the headlights.

There were also figures out today from respected analysts at Investec calculating that the price guarantee could costb the government just £3 billion in 2023-2024 compared to the £12.8 billion forecast by the OBR and down from about £25 billion this winter. It goes on to say that the new forecasts are likely to add to pressure on the Govt to cancel April's planned increase for the energy price guarantee to £3,000. Benchmark wholesale gas prices in Britain have halved over the past month and are now lower than they were a year ago, before the Ukraine invasion.
The UK month-ahead gas contract fell a further 10 per cent yesterday to about 153per therm, down more than 340p at the start of December and from highs of 640p in August. However, it is still more than triple the average of about 50p per therm in the decade before the energy crisis began in 2021.
Because providers buy their energy in advance, and Ofgem's price cap on standard tariffs reflects this, the recent falls in wholesale prices will not be reflected in bills until later in the year

source: Today's Times - obviously not read by Kier Starmer or his speech writers.

Stevo - we're on the same page but I've calculated it from a slightly different perspective. The mantra of "9X cheaper" first came to my attention 2 months ago and I posted several times around 5-9 November. Let's call it 2 months ago but it may have been quoted earlier.
For there to be any semblance of common sense in the mantra then natural gas would have had to be more or less static to remain at 9X cheaper for 2 months. A rough check showed natural gas at 6.78 on Nov 6 and 3.72 today. That's a decrease of 45 per cent.
It seems that Sunak's maths initiative is too late for the Labour party and acolytes. This could be excellent ammunition for the Tories and you have to ask why they aren't attacking the blatant lies regarding fossil fuels? It is literally a tap in for them but they refuse to let the public know the true facts.
Either way it helps us. They hit Labour hard for disinformation or they're holding back because they have some grim news and projections in front of them which means uit could be a tactical error. For us it is "The big lie" but surely the Tories are aware but it suits them to do nothing at present.

They also repeated their intention to stop non-dom status which in the scheme of things saves pennies but looks good as headlines. it doesn't make people like AB and Linda Cook feel appreciated though. They will have alternative plans and options.
The 9X mantra is pretty imbedded with the "usual suspects" and surely it is not beyond the wit of Trade bodies like OGUK and even NSTA to at least make sure parties stick to the truth. I believe they've made a mistake here because there is data and evidence to disprove their claims. I've been firing off emails all day. One of the problems is that if you champion the fossil cause you're likely to have protestors camping outside your home or office. Best to do it from behind a Trade Body - that's what you pay your subs for.

Thanks In4cedros - From the speech:

"But we won’t be able to spend our way out of their mess – it’s not as simple as that.

Let me give you an example of our different approach. You start with a mission –
a plan for 100 percent clean power generation by 2030.

That mission builds on an opportunity – that clean British energy is nine times cheaper than imported fossil fuels. It’s backed by investment – public and private – in wind, solar, nuclear, hydrogen, green steel and carbon capture.

It’s galvanised by reform: by Great British Energy, a new publicly owned company that will take this opportunity and turn it into good, secure, well-paid British jobs.

And it’s driven by speed, and a long-term vision, that doesn’t back down when the going gets tough, when vested interests take you on over planning or trying to hold on to fossil fuels.

Because if you take action early, if we did this now, then businesses and working people get cheaper bills forever. Our country gets energy independence from tyrants like Putin forever. And we can give every community a shot at the green jobs of the future."

What does this mean? "a plan for 100 percent clean power generation by 2030." I read that as no top up when the wind doesn't blow and sun don't shine. It will only affect electricity which some days is 100% renewable already but that's only c. 18% of our energy use. I'll still have my gas boiler, a petrol car and I don't expect to take holidays by glider. Imports won't arrive in this country and our ports pulled by a team of unicorns either. The other stuff is mainly hopium.

I appreciate it applies more to electricity but they are slapdash about accuracy so two can paly at that game. It is obvious it is said to demonise fossil fuels but challenging figures plucked out of the air is surely not beyond the abilities of leaders mof the British G&O uindustry?

Kier Starmer in his New year speech just said "renewables are 9X cheaper than IMPORTED fossil fuels". It's live so I'll have to wait until the transcript or replay. We know its a lie picking tops and bottoms and extrapolating it into an urban myth but I believe the addition of "IMPORTED" isn't accidental. We know that focus teams and lawyers will have gone through this with a finetooth comb. To me it is inserting some wriggle room.
If the British energy lobby can't turn these blatant lies to our advantage then I despair. If G&O return to a reasonable level then every household in the country can expect their energy bills to be 9X cheaper.

Hi Jeffrey - just venting and I'm sure I'll be happier tomorrow. For now I'm just using the model that I have for a run down of the company to as close to zero as we can get. AB says that's the wrong way of looking at it but how else can you run a company when this Govt and the next one doesn't want you to make a profit relative to the risks involved? And to cap it all the only penalty is if you make a profit. Make a loss and you're on your own.

Frankly I'd ditch this Govt and ask Labour their plans. I think we should exit the NS as from now. At a bare minimum we should withdraw cooperation with this Govt - what more is required to establish their outright hostility towards the industry. What further damage could they unleash?

Believe it or not it could be worse. Stuart Kirk today;
"Asset management is a world-leading industry in the manufacturing of excuses. Simply no one knows how to avoid blame like a portfolio manager. I would go as far as to say it is their main job. Given the vast majority underperform their benchmarks, yet retaining assets is paramount, shifting fault is the only game in town. And the more money lost, the better the excuses need to be. Last year, with many down a quarter, half and even more in the case of technology funds, how on earth was the industry going to pass the buck this time? The usual suspects — an irrational Federal Reserve, murky Chinese politics, idiot retail investors — wasn’t going to cut it. Bingo! A polycrisis. You could hear the spasms of joy across the investment world when this idea started to gain currency in the summer. We’re saved!"

We're still up on a year ago. That makes us rapacious capitalists who should be kept in the stocks and pilloried.

Hi KO - If AB continues buying it would be a good sign but I also want him to join other companies and ask the Govt why they are so hostile against G&O and why the relentless penalties. This is an anti-business party that has resorted to scapegoating our industry . Caroline Lucas doesn't run the country and last time I looked Labour were the opposition but it is very difficult to tell them apart nowadays.
The public must see that with G&O lower they should expect lower energy bills. How is this Govt going to explain away that if it doesn't happen soon?

I have to say Linda Cook (Harbour) was ahead of the pack in deciding that the UK is not a place to do business in if you're involved in the G&O business. Other countries and industries (whose next) will have taken note. Basically we lost the Brexit war and are reduced to destroying the energy transition for expediency deficit funding. The Tories are finished for a decade at least but aren't going down alone. They're taking the British economy with them.

Hi Tommo - I was gonna challenge you but it seems you are right. EPL until March 2028 in the Autumn statement. Not a problem if oil is $150 but it shuts the door on any new investment imo and basically the NS is now in run down mode.
I did ask AB about the option of just running EnQuest into the ground until the remaining pockets are no longer economic at the AGM. He answered "it doesn't work that way". Why not? This was on 17 Jun when the sunset clause was 31 December 2025. What incentive is there to open a new field now? The answer is NONE.
It might explain why Tailwind are so attractive to Serica? The investors of Serica are up in arms but frankly there aren't any other buyers and it seems the ring fence tax losses feature significantly in the deal. It cannot be the production as we comfortably outproduce them. Serica management have seen the writing on the wall!
The Tories closed the coal mines in the 80's because of cheaper exports from abroad. That isn't the case for oil so maybe Jeremy Hunt is a climate activist?
Energy security - go tell it to the fairies.

*I faintly recall a statement by EnQuest that we wouldn't pay any corporation tax in the foreseeable future due to our accrued losses. That is the straw I am clinging to. We are an industry in decline unless the Govt changes tack. I think we should save our money and freeze all new projects with an aim to relinquish licenses. Can anybody see a reason to bid for new licenses? We should know on the 12 January.

p.s. why aren't domestic energy bills, especially electric, lower? Remember, renewables are 9X cheaper.

It is all very puzzling. There must be some bite back from the industry and I wonder what's behind this piece from Energy Voice today "Labour turns up the heat on Rosebank oilfield" which is just repeating a letter sent on 7 November 2022.
I wonder if they're trying to get Tories to respond or trap Labour. I'd expect EV to be sympathetic as they feed off the industry and would be quite willing to print lobbyist copy. Without the G&O business in the UK we are all in trouble and that includes the NHS.
Petrol prices are no longer as high but Labour needs calling out on the lies they spread about renewables and electricity prices.

EnQuest is pretty boring at the moment but there is excitement over at Serica. It sems Tailwind's 'significant' ring fence tax losses have a value as does its existing RBL and junior facility. Like us.
The announcement highlights fully developed reserves of 42m boe will be added to SQZ making a total of 104mboe (ours are nearer 200m boe and their combined production will be around 5k boepd lower than ours.
There will be developments and differences in cash etc. but there are enough similarities to make a better stab at our market valuation (not true valuation; that is something different imo).
What really interests me is this from the SQZ RNS "· Estimated proforma combined production in 2023 will rise significantly to between 40,000 boe/d and 45,000 boe/d putting Serica in the top 10 UKCS producers and top 3 UKCS listed independent producers".
When I posted the Woodmac Top 10 British G&O producers on 8 December we never got a mention but SQZ are manipulating the figures to flatter their deal. We are playing it more low key and I would rather let SQZ do the groundwork for us and go over the parapet first. Hopefully it elicits reactions which we can use for ENQ analysis. I'm not saying they'll necessarily be positive but presently companies our size are reliant on macro and more importantly, the British Govt. The sunset clause is still 31 Dec 2025 I believe. If the right guarantees were given that could fit nicely with developing B or B, even B & B.
The G&O industry is too important to the UK to be jettisoned and there will be backdoor lines of communication to avoid a collapse in production. I would be very surprised if we weren't up to something or are being circled.

mrc (21.48) - could be. Even more repetitious than Stanley. Treat it like a pothole. If you know it's there you can avoid and ignore. I do.

Seems like sell smaller oilies and buy Shell and BP. On the bright side they like the sector but you need a good rating and dividend attraction to take advantage. We'll have both soon enough.

https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1609564108827029505/photo/1

Explains a lot. I do like the comment though.

Clueless. There are subsidies going back years, they call them imbedded costs and what about fossil contributions? What about the future and renewal of renewables and where do you put the detritus? etc... and that's without his Hopium solution and heat exchangers for inappropriate buildings (effectively tents). My new year's resolution. To put Stanley in the irrelevance bin (Filter).

*Andy Samuel the ex-CEO of NSTA has been awarded a CBE for services to the energy sector. He is moving to a farm in Devon to build a yoga retreat. Still trying to work out the meaning of it all.

HNY to all investors here.

Oh dear Stanley, as usual you miss the point completely and make no reference to oil or EnQuest but never mind, I'm here to help and educate you.. They want to get a crowd of 100k to show the politicians how strong the idealistic resistance to fossil fuels is. I'm betting that the Govt which ignored a million marchers who were against Brexit will ignore them too (although I doubt they'll get anywhere near the number of 100k).
It might surprise you but I am also a member of the public as are most other posters and readers here. We have the normal foibles but most of us know a little more than the average person about G&O as well as investing. We also tend to be sceptical about the claims made regarding renewables which you have been promoting ever since I've been here whilst avoiding investing in EnQuest or the sector.
The public sector has my sympathy but I must admit their retirement ages and pensions do mitigate to an extent. Nobody has to choose to work in the public sector, neither do they have to avoid investing and making a proiit. It isn't illegal to earn a profit and nobody questions interest on bank deposits for the risk averse. That of course gets turned into excessive bonuses in the twisted world of climate activism.

I'm an investor in the sector. You are the first troll of 2023 to this message board. Well done.

Just like the million that marched on Parliament to stop Brexit? I was one of them. Didn't we do well. The link to fossil fuels and high energy prices is unproven. Maybe the public will work out that renewables aren't as cheap as they were told.
Thing is you need that horrible word that the activists use to attack business everywhere - "Profit".
If you don't allow a company an opportunity to make a profit then they cease trading. Simple as that. You can't blame gas at present as it's back to 2010 prices and we're told that renewables are up to 9X cheaper than fossil fuels. They boast that we're a net exporter of electricity and most days fossil fuel isn't used at all to produce electricity.

I think the G&O industry deserves an award for keeping their prices reasonable. Try trelling the public that now we've stopped subsidising renewables they'll have to get used to permanently higher energy costs.

Maybe the "penny will drop" in 2023 and Jeremy Hunt might realise how business works as pressure from the public builds?

In another article by Irwin Steltzer a Republican leaning US economist finished a rather predictable diatribe with this sentence, aimed at the UK & US which I found succint and accurate:

"Finally, surely in your country and mine, deep pine green will fade to pale mint green as politicians scramble to transfer resources from fighting climate change to fighting the misery caused by policies to combat it."

It is missed by many that fossil energy prices are back at 2010 levels but the public are amazed at the high prices on their energy bills. The climate activists are still blaming the G&O industry which the public at large are beginning to question. Caroline Lucas and Ed Miliband can possibly explain it better than me because I could never get my head around renewables being up to 9X cheaper than fossil fuels as they stated many times. The narrative is changing for 2023.

Also has a competition where professional ST "experts" make their tips for the year. In 2022 only 1 of 8 picked a stock that finished higher than at the start of the year (Glencore) so investors in EnQuest outperformed 7 out of 8 ST tipsters. In another article Oliver Shah (one of the not-so-magnificent 7) redeemed himsel in my eyes with this observation:
Certain companies are less beholden to Institutional Investors when owner-drivers are taken into account. "Taking the risk of reinvention is easier when you know you're difficult to sack" followed by a complaint that investors tend to be passive on almost everything other than ESG "In this setting, companies must be confident enough to lead investors by the nose and lay out the narrative. All roads lead back to two things: a strong chief executive with ideas and the resilienceto keep going through short-term ructions; and, ultimately, a strong chair. The second is there to guide them and build a board where non-executives bring experience and a range of views - and aren't afraid of calculated risks."

We didn't have Gareth Penny last year and I suspect that Liv Monica Stubholt was a strategic hire with Equinor and the Norwegian Govt growing in importance for our future. I think we have a team fit and ready to compete in 2023.

Wishing you all a prosperous NY.