Member Info for romaron

Count me in Mansardman. I think now would be too early but as the election nears we could have an impact. If Labour continue with the threats and impossible targets we will have allies from the industry who would be interested in grass root support from overlooked retail investors.
The majors in some ways aren't even threatened (5% UK) but it is public perception that counts and is something that would cause political parties to pause.
I would still like a list of top oil producers in the UK North Sea and maybe we could get a catchy slogan for the group. Pointless attacking now but nothing to stop us beginning to consider a way forward.
With enough individuals singing fromn the same hymn sheet we stand a better chance of the media picking up a comment or asking us to provide balance against an environmental activist.
We've all seen how quite small groups get an inverse level of attention. We don't but then again there aren't unaligned groups who we could attach ourselves to that I can think of? The media loves a representative prepared to counter the claims of the likes of juststopoil. You need a title like "Oil is still essential" or something catchy.
I will recommend (tick) your post and if others think they might be interested in the future we'll see if there is an appetite for action. It would need to be done away from the message board and some trust between those helping.

One problem is that we have no group that we can join as retail investors or people whose livelihood relies on fossil fuels; and that is a lot of people. There are seldom debates with anybody from the industry or an individual to pull the wild claims and slogans apart. Take today for example. EM is saying how ridiculous it is to subsidise fossil fuels when renewables don't get anything. He also said that because of the time-lag they [fossils] do nothing for energy-security.
I'd reply that renewables don't need subsidies as they are 9X cheaper than fossil fuels and must be raking it in as they are part of the energy mix and benefit from the connection to fossil fuels.
I do really hope that come election time someone hires a big red bus with some of these renewable claims plastered across them.

You can get it on playback. It is the usual garbled rubbish I'm afraid. EM describes the investment breaks as a massive loophole just for fossil fuel companies and if they make "so called investments, they get massive taxbreaks" etc...
I hope OEUK and others have added the 28 Year to the litany of lies and half-truths that come back to this failed politician. He leaves the door open for fossil fuels but states that it is full-throttle for 100% clean energy by 2030 under Labour plus home insulation. The point he makes for the public is that renewables come on line very, very quickly - it takes fossil fuels 28 years on average from new exploration to new production. That is a totally misconstrued travesty of the actual situation. As usual the challenging by the interviewer was tepid.
"Tax breaks for new exploration" was the actual phrase he used.
This means that Cambo, Jackdaw, Rosebank, Bressay etc.. may not go ahead at all without the tax incentive that Ed Miliband wants to end.
He is causing enormous damage to the industry and the reputation of Britain.

Hi mrc - I hope you're right and I'm wrong. Timing will be important as climate activists attack every plan and disappointedly seem to garner media and political support. I sense something is happening and you seem to have a good feel for the process. I'm very happy to see my argument demolished. It's not only 2C that is a problem - even 2P struggles but I'm relaxed on both as unless I get hydrogen to my house in the next 10 years (unlikely to impossible) I'll take the income/capital that EnQuest will supply.

Well, well, well.... could be Kraken, Bressay, Bentley.....

I couldn't find any comments elsewhere about Orcadian but for me it confirms that 2C reserves are practically valueless at present. This would also extend to Bressay and Bentley.
I don't know anything but suspect that there is enough wiggle room to describe B&B as not only contiguous but actually part of Kraken. Why not, activists make far weaker claims and pretend they're fact? Definitions and word games are politicians and lawyers raison d'être. Misnamed when it should have been The Greater Kraken and we know it sleepeth.

Bressay in particular has two heavyweights sharing the field. Not a fight for now but who knows the situation in a year or so? There is little political advantage in either Labour or Conservative backing us at present because the election imperative and strikes trump practically everything else. I think 'sticking to the knitting' is perfectly sensible (and it pays well) for now.

I doubt Gareth Penny joined us with the intention of managing the decline of EnQuest and the North Sea.

The second part is why I think EnQuest stand out. AB told me at the AGM that you don't run the UK side of the business into the ground; "it doesn't work that way." Well it seemed a path then and still does to me. It means we will be cash rich for this period of stasis with the potential of better treatment from the tax and law makers. Not because they love us but because they need us.
I think AB is very canny and I'm sure would admit that the chance of there being a K,B,B hub looks pretty remote at present. Things change and an opposition based on lies, half-truths and alchemy will eventually be held to account. We have picked up reserves and assets for a song [Bressay, Bentley]. If they stay below the sea-bed it won't distress the company. If they are granted FDP's the price rockets.
Sometimes things take a long while to happen. I remember Peter Palumbo and the Mappin & Webb development (No.1 Poultry). It took decades until he owned or had long leases on the ground. Whilst he waited he carried on with his existing projects and portfolios. Maybe we're doing something similar? The thing is that we will still make money whatever happens. Downside risk very low - topside not being considererd by the market at present.
We are well positioned to see what develops over 2023. I'm afraid it may take that long before we see the fruits.

My opinion. The true cost of renewables has been hidden from the public. They ain't 9X cheaper than fossil fuels, that's for sure. BP and Shell (closing Shell Energy in UK) know this but their models and scale don't work on disparate fields at the end of their life. Tories and Labour know this at the top but they're only interested in getting elected. The hostility toward O&G comes from the environmentalists and the politicians. Funding both their promises and aims is basically a mixture of fiction and hopium. For a start they hitch onto an existing grid they never paid for but growing capex and maintenance means that is a cost they can't avoid going forward.
Unfortunately both parties can avoid the real world for up to 2 years [next General Election]. There will be no cavalry or change of plan because of this. O&G isn't a vote winner and after all we're all capitalist pigs. We saw today the collapse of Orcadian. There is no money for new fields imo and even if it turns up you'll be met with opposition from many directions. The stock market looks how far ahead? Most say 6 months but I'd say a year. The Tories and Labour will be entrenched 6 months before the election with reduced maneuverability. The likely winner at present is Labour and they will about then go, "oo-er, it looks like we are going to win. How do we pay for our manifesto." They then start talking to the O&G industry being one of the few manufacturing and producing industries left with the potential to bring in decent revenue.
That's when reality comes through the door. I'd say H2 2024. It'll start affecting what's left of the O&G in H1 2024 in a positive way imo. It means that 2023 is a write-off in many ways for capital appreciation but it doesn't mean O&G isn't at a minimum a HOLD but for me is a BUY. It can hardly be a SELL because of the ridiculous EBITDA ratios. Companies and industries going bust don't make those sort of returns.

There was a series on Prime Video called "The Rig". I started watching but found it tosh and fantasy so gave up. I mean, who keeps old rigs going beyond their design life? However, in one early episode there is a character reading a book called "The Kraken Wakes". I thought it was invented for the plot but there is actually a book called "The Kraken Wakes" by John Wyndham more famous for "Day of the Triffids".
Naturally I read it and though dystopian it has remarkable foresight - not in things that actually happened but the pseudo-science that has fuelled most of the juststopoil cult. Pure science-fiction and imagination running wild.
Today is the 70th Anniversary of the Canvey Island disaster where 59 died from a storm surge that has been described as the worst peacetime disaster the UK has ever known. It caused even more deaths in Holland. It is also the 70th Anniversary of the book. The book revolves around sea levels so a timely read. Spooky even.
I then wondered if there was ever a film made? It turns out that one has been made and was due to be released last year but now looks like it will be released this year (google). Delays and Kraken are symbiotic. Perhaps it is a sign?

"Until the latter fire shall heat the deep;
Then once by man and angels to be seen,
In roaring he shall rise " from The Kraken - Tennyson

*I think I need help.

Hi Auson, I am deeply sceptical about energy claims. Electric heaters are 100% efficient. True.
It sticks in my mind that in a modern flat c.2011 I was surveying there were two young students from Newcastle renting. I jokingly said that I thought they were tough from there and wearing overcoats indoors was a surprise. They replied that they couldn't afford to turn the electric panel heaters on. This was in the days before electricity was 9X cheaper. To add insult the block was electric panel heaters throughout but had an Economy 7 option that is intended for storage heaters and unsuitable for panel heaters. They were there because it is the cheapest space heating option to install and they looked slim and attractive. They danced around building Regs by being technically compliant but certainly not in the spirit. The flats were pretty though.

In 2010 the volume weighted average price for electricity was £44/MWh and was at a similar level in 2019. So I look forward to moving to electricity at a fraction of this price as Labour have promised. If they fail to back up their claims I see ASHPs being as efficient as an AGA cooker but 9X cheaper can make most things work. [ASHP can work in new builds]

I wonder how heavy the battery to lift a jet airliner is. How many passengers will it weigh?

Reuters story. The thing is that a SNGR would have mitigated massively and avoided the worst of the explosion in gas prices. It also gave a massive opening for an opportunist attack on oil and gas producers in the UK. I doubt they'll backtrack too far but selecting O&G as fall guys for political miscalculations will require some reassessment.
I'm probably simplifying but both Harbour and Serica have a weakness in reliance on gas imo. We don't. The Tailwind/Serica deal seems to value oil reserves higher than gas. The Serica retail investors are whingeing but there value [Serica] is closely associated to the price of gas and that has been falling sharply.
I still believe that a lot of problems are caused by the terminology O&G. What are we? 95% oil (I don't know the answer). We call ourselves an "Independent production and development company". *I think we should be braver and include OIL in the title. Gas has been dragging us down and we don't produce it.

At last, something I can understand:
"Prompt prices at Europe's most liquid gas hub, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), have progressively dropped over the past seven weeks as mild weather, limited demand and LNG imports remained quick. As Europe approaches the end of winter and forecasts suggest more mild weather, the immediate risk of a gas shortage has lessened dramatically in recent weeks.
Argus' TTF everyday prices so far this year have been assessed at around €64/MWh on average, almost half the roughly €121/MWh average last year. However they still remain dramatically above historical levels of roughly €17/MWh in 2017, €23/MWh in 2018, €13.50/MWh in 2019, €9.35/MWh in 2020 and €46/MWh in 2021.
European gas prices also remain well above benchmark prices in other major gas-producing and consuming markets like the US, Iran, Russia and Oman. Iran and Oman ramped up ammonia exports to Europe last year, and cheap domestic prices give producers in these countries a competitive advantage due to cheaper feedstocks.
European ammonia production costs fell below import prices in late December, and were estimated at $660/t for northwest European plants, excluding carbon costs as of 27 January. Northwest European import prices are trading $170/t above the cost of production, at $830/t cfr duty free."
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2414350-eu-ammonia-production-still-limited-as-gas-prices-fall

We can't farm without fertilier (ammonia) but when gas prices soared European ammonia plants closed. Cheaper imports from producers filled the vacuum. Even China was arbitraging. There is currently a glut. Imagine relying on Iran for example if gas prices went up again? Energy security - we could have it but our politicians seem to have other ideas.

"Pain is the best instructor, but no one wants to go to his class" - Choi Hong Hi

I'm with you Modestus. Fundamentals and cash aren't witchcraft.

Only a rumour but I'm hearing that the Labour Party have hired Anxious Masuka on a consultancy basis. He is an expert on appropriation and the sequestration of assets. He is a career politician from Zimbabwe who is adding the final touches to the successful land reform and transfer instigated by Robert Mugabe. The intention is to build on the success of juststopoil and Extinction Rebellion who forced the Tories to begin the first step towards redistribution of energy assets and giving the power back to those who care for the environment by stopping traffic and people going about fossil burning under the excuse that "they are just getting on with there lives and business". It has been successfully proven that some of these people poisoning the environment had no valid reason and timidly replied when questioned that "they were just meeting friends or window shopping". Once Labour are in and the "Renewables Collective" have mopped up the last of the resistance it will announce to the proletariat that free and clean air is now available to all. However, those who abuse this privilege will be deprived of access to air which actually fixes the problem and means more free air for those who deserve it. Ed Miliband will be overall in charge under his new title - Minister for Rural Resettlement.

"Hedge funds became more bullish about Brent than at any time since May 2019, before the pandemic erupted and upended the oil industry.
There is a growing tension at the heart of investor positioning.
In the bond market, investors are increasingly confident inflation will moderate, allowing central banks to bring an early end to interest rate rises.
In the oil market, investors are increasingly sure continued growth will cause supplies to tighten and send prices higher.
But that would be inflationary – and contradicts to the benign outlook assumed by the bond market.

Oil traders and bond traders cannot both be right."

John Kemp - Reuters today

Er, they can. If you're an oil producing country you can subsidise other parts of the economy out of any excess profits you're making. That includes the USA and Norway for example. A kinda silly argument if you're lucky enough to have fossil fuels. I haven't seen OPEC members complaining either.

Mind you, It takes a special kind of logic to decide you prefer inflation to fossil fuels. I'm sure Ed Miliband can explain it better than I could.

Hi Battle - I should have left the bit about Brexit out. I still haven't got over it.
I posted the article because it was on the front page and for the British public (voters) BP is our NS O&G industry. The majority will never have heard of the others and Shell was always suspect (them foreigners again). If there was an approach for BP (I doubt it, political fall out) then sympathy would swing behind the industry imo. Few have even heard of the largest NS producer, Harbour, but the backlash and spin would probably work to our benefit if BP was bought out. The fact that they're even talking about it is encouraging to me. It also reinforces the fact that it is political and environmentalist activists that are driving the price down. In US eyes we are an attractive economic asset but it doesn't mean they take precedence over politics.
Another interesting article inside by Dominic Lawson. If they insulate all of British houses people just use more energy as it becomes effectively cheaper. It is called the "rebound effect". Government try and change things but humans react differently. A worked example is cavity wall insulation. It reduced the use of gas by 7% in year 1, in year 2 by 2.7% and by year 4 negligible. Gets too hot, rather than turn the thermostat down open the window. They messed up with alcohol too in Scotland (MUP). The only people who suffered from the raised minimum were alcoholics in straitened circumstances who it was meant to help. Another article is asking why we all got help with energy whether we lived in a mansion or a 1 bed flat.
Obesity is similar. The sugar tax reduced the purchase of sweetened cereals between 2015-2018. They plummeted but overall sugar in foods increased from 723,000 tonnes to 742,000 tonnes. People got their fix elsewhere. As Dominic lawson said at the end. "As for obesity ... rationing aside, I have no idea, since it is an unavoidable consequence of something our ancestors could only dream of: superabundance."
People will revert back to fossil fuels because life is so much better with them (they actually haven't left them). It'll be a bit lower because of renewables but the decline of reserves will more and make up for that. If Britain wants to follow the nutter's agenda then that won't be possible if they outlaw warmth, comfort, and travel at a reasonable price.

Calm down. Not us but BP. Sunday Times today:
"M&G, one of Britain's biggest fund managers, has warned low valuations for listed companies leave some vulnerable to takeover, singling out BP.
Michael Stiasny, head of UK equities at M&G Investments, said many of its components were trading at lower values than their peers around the globe and made attractive bid targets. We may see high-profile companies leave UK indices.
With companies like BP trading at a significant discount to their US peers, even after a strong year of performance."

BP has a market value of £87.6bn. Shell £163bn and Exxon £387bn. The discount has widened from 10 per cent in 2018 to 50 per cent today.

And all this under the party for business that got Brexit done - the Conservatives.

BP reports its results next week.

The current UK government isn't listening. They are preparing for opposition. Their party made a dreadful mistake in 2016 and they will be out of power for many years. I had to chuckle when a dyed in the wool Corbyn supporter phoned LBC this morning to say she supports the assertion by Nicola Sturgeon that Keir Starmer is a "Tory light" and doesn't represent socialism. Asked where her vote could go she replied "to the Green Party". There you have it.
I'm actually hopeful. All parties leave action as late as possible and the Labour revival is growing in Scotland. Tories are finished forever there. If I was Scottish I reckon I'd vote for Independence but can see the danger of it becoming a one party state. I couldn't see them voting for a Corbyn type socialist. They're cleverer than the English in that respect.
Oil and Gas can be the catalyst for change, provide the capital and know-how but if the environmentalists take over we will be living in an agrarian society. The sheer physics and economics mean that there is still a vast treasury of good that O&G can provide.

There is a lot to play for.

Tw*t. Stanley, I didn't say that. I said that the Norwegian government and its people support their fossil fuel industry. Perhaps Norwegians aren't as gullible as the average Brit? They have a supportive strategy. We don't. Doesn't make them an aspirational model; just means we are rudderless and don't really have an alternative than to run the industry into the ground. It obviously makes them look better. That's why UK O&G companies are valued so low and new investment is heading away from these shores.

Your stalking is irritating. I can't get a restraining order on you so will permanently filter you. Others will have to deal with your fly-tipping on this message board.

Pretty much money down the drain then. What a waste.

Joking aside I think the majority of UK voters, especially Scotland, are envious of the respect that Norway has shown towards their oil and gas industry. Yes, there are emission problems but the benefits of fossil fuels are real and have improved the lot of humankind. Most problems are down to the population explosion. There is a resistance to the abolishment of fossil fuels in the UK. There is resignation at present due to the complete mismanagement of the economy, NHS, Police, railways etc.. but I think most people know fundamentally we will require O&G for decades yet.
We hold some very good cards.