Member Info for romaron

Nobody on here is a lobbying expert so whilst on the surface it seems our companies and representative body have failed to argue our case successfully we don't know if they have been heard and it is a question of timing. Any alteration to the EPL is highly political and I was disappointed in the reaction of Pat McFadden the shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury on Politics Live (BBC2) after. He dismissed the windfall tax and said that the capital allowance needed to be removed (needs checking as not on iplayer yet so relying on a dodgy memory). The Government may slip an adjustment in away from the febrile attention today. It isn't looking good though.
I will remind AB of his response at the AGM when I said just run the company into the ground and he replied "it doesn't work that way". Afraid it does old son when you have a hostile government and opposition digging in. I cannot see any lift off for new developments in this environment and if they think the transition can work without fossil fuels they are even further removed from reality than I imagined.
The 100 percent allowance on IT, plant and machinery (for 3 years I think) isn't that different to the EPL allowance in my ignorance so perhaps the McFadden threat is empty. Needs someone like Stevo or L7 to investigate.
Cogitating at the moment but can anybody explain why we've done better relatively than Harbour today? They have buybacks and dividend, we don't! I think oil is more valuable than gas presently but even so?

I am actually still quite positive.

Whilst I am not rejoicing over the oil price or our share price it does strengthen our arguments regarding the EPL floor price and the banking collapses means that the investment allowance is meaningless in that it has been cratered by the downgrading by the credit agencies regarding the new fiscal landscape and valuation of reserves. The banks will likely take the lead from the Chancellor and his friends at Labour as politically the industry now ranks behind tobacco, asbestos mining and day- trips across the channel. Presently It looks like the O&G industry in the NS is uninvestable unless you have private equity funding and they make Shylock look generous.

If their intention is to speed up the demise of the O&G industry in the North sea they're making a pretty good job of it.

They were Juan but they are compensated by straws. You wait ages for one and then three come along at once. The risk averse panic merchants fled from oil. That was expected. Then ...

1. Bloomberg top news: Permian breakeven oil is about to double BSEF.
2. Biden approves $8bn Conoco project in NW Alaska despite climate peril.
3. Huge rally in bonds. [our $HYN didn't budge - I consider them lock-up paper - Tullow weakened]

I don't really know what else we can do other than provide energy security and pay our taxes. Personally I don't find profit "obscene". These events may make the likes of JH and Labour tone down their rhetoric and look at reality. I have topped up at these levels. These events aren't harming our role in the macro picture. I can't see Saudi Arabia increasing production to make up for shale's problem. Uncle Joe as a seasoned politician knows that expediency is a useful card to play. Bonds and capital raising rules and they are owned by the Bond market. We are in a good place in that respect.

Zippy 15:36 We've just had a decade of practically FREE money that bankers had first dibs on. It wasn't available to the O&G industry as we are pariahs. They still attacked the minute a profit was made. I think we hold stronger cards now. If a competitor is drowning put a hose in his mouth. The economy needs us whilst the renewable industry relies on "visions". F**k 'em - they can't be trusted.

“While majors have moved out of the North Sea, the independents have moved in. In the last six years, these companies have invested more than $50 billion in the basin – more than double that of the larger companies who used to dominate. Collectively, they now produce more than 50% of the UK’s oil and gas needs – a number that will grow in the years ahead.
“Yet, it is on the shoulders of these independent companies that the impact of these new windfall taxes falls disproportionately. Unlike the majors, these companies don’t have the same level of balance sheet power and rely on external sources of funding that come with more strings attached.
“Like any lender, banks require collateral to provide finance. For independents, their borrowing capacity is determined by the value of their reserves, much like a mortgage on the value of a house. Higher taxes erode the value of these reserves, restricting their ability to access investment capital and continue to invest in new projects.
“Lenders also require them to sell production forward to protect future revenues. What they produce today is not sold at current prices, but at ‘realised’ prices agreed two or even three years ago, when prices were significantly lower.”

Sam Laidlaw Executive Chairman of Neptune Energy (gas 57% of production) 12 Jan 2023 Evening Standard
Oil and gas conflation needs addressing too.

I agree Dartman. I used to do something similar to them. Along with friends we'd upset the neighbours by a childish prank called "knock down ginger". I grew out of it by around the age of eight. Now I know it's them knocking by the green filter message.

Most markets are down today which probably doesn't help us for receiving any breaks on Wednesday. Technology was for years a preferred sector but that is taking a hammering too. After SVB banks are bunkering down and I wouldn't want to be an oil or gas producer approaching them for funding.
I would want to be in cash or a company producing something essential that is profitable. Gas and oil fit that role. I imagine we can do something like Harbour and keep a chunk of 2022 revenue. We still have the tax credits and healthy production. I can't see oil lower for H2 either.
At times like this AB and EnQuest excel. We've been here before when we were much weaker. The $HYN's were a tad lower Friday at 96.75 but I can remember when our retail bonds were 30.25 [Ineos debt went to 10c in the dollar]. His timing for the bond raise means we don't have to worry that much about impending redemptions.

"No one likes us, we don't care"

*I thought the weekend round of Chancellors on TV was pretty tepid and the news was more about a crisp salesman. What was absent was the usual demonisation by Labour of the O&G industry. I'm still looking for "renewables 9X cheaper" quotes. Andrew Neil is excellent at reminding politicians of their quotes and promises. I will write to him.

Was where Boris Johnson made the bombastic promises for green policies that floated away just as the promises he made to the women in his life. Luckily they were future promises (unlike Brexit) and everywhere there is backtracking. We are commited to banning petrol and diesel by 2030. Italy and Germany are already tinkering with allowing exemptions in the EU beyond 2035.
Other promises will be conveniently forgotten by whoever is in power because they are unworkable in the time-frames. From today's Sunday Times: "Speaking of homes, consensus is forming that hydrogen won't replace gas boilers. A review of 32 scientific studies last year found it was "a lot less efficient and more expensive than alternatives such as heat pumps". Heat pumps are poorly understood, though, and the UK's installation programme has been the worst in the world.
And speaking of energy, yesterday almost 41 per cent of National Grid's electricity came from gas."

Embarrassing for the Tories but it'll soon be Labour's problem. When you see a cliff edge it is sensible to stop and change direction.

will solve the energy crisis or using Labours answer, "by investment".

From today's Sunday Times: "However, there is still intense scepticism over the party's understanding of practicalities. A clip of shadow work and pensions secretary Jonathan Ashworth struggling to tell Andrew Neil how Labour would decarbonise the electricity network by 2030 has been shared among energy bosses. "It's scary," said one. "They haven't got a clue."

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-andrew-neil-show/on-demand/75513-006

Series 3 Episode 6 and starts from c. 28:15 minutes.

My interest in HBR is because whilst you’re 50 percent gas and I’m more interested in oil the EPL is influenced more by gas. The activists and Labour in complicity combine O&G enabling them to use oil profits as part of their attack.
Any success that the renewable lobby has had is more in the production of electricity which is still less than a fifth of the UK’s energy requirement and is the poster child of their campaigns. They are seldom attacked and when they are resort to meaningless slogans and half-baked science. I’ll agree that humankind are messy and everything we do is a trade-off but I’d still like to see 4 men push a car 20 miles; I’d rather sit inside with them and use half a gallon of petrol instead.
Why are we still using the broken system of buying gas at auction? Energean who are almost completely gas instead use a system of long term contracts and have been very successful with this method and their customers like it too (there is a connection to HBR here – Roy Franklin a Director was the Chairman of Premier 2017-2021).
HBR are aware of this and I received this reply from their IR a few weeks ago: “I think the other point to make is that while it may be that renewable energy sources are cheaper than fossil fuels on certain days / over certain periods (especially given the volatility we saw in gas prices last year) you cannot rely on it and there is insufficient reliable renewable energy sources and infrastructure to meet energy demand today. As such, there is still an important role for oil, and in particular natural gas, to play as we strive to deliver a just, affordable and orderly energy transition.”

I would like to challenge both sides to list the true costs of gas against wind and solar. Subsidies aren’t supposed to last forever and if the public could have a breakdown into simple terms from a trustworthy source they would be better able to make decisions at the voting booth (because that is what it boils down to). We have already seen the climate activists make claims that renewables are 9X cheaper than fossil fuels. Let us see if it can stand up to scrutiny.

Another step I would like to see is a breakdown of NS producers; one list for Gas and another for Oil. Then that to be broken down again by company production. I’m sick of us all being described as ”oil giants” making “obscene profits”. A few old Premier holders might have something to say here. One question I'd like to ask Caroline Lucas or Red Ed is does she believe in "decent profits" or is the problem with the word "profits". I doubt renewable companies will even make "decent profits" without subsidies and are already bleating about the "commercial" criteria being used.

One favour I would ask. Can people inform me if the “renewables 9X cheaper than fossil fuels” quote is used again. I know juststopoil use it but they are irrelevant “useful idiots” so don’t count.

Today. Just 2 article headings:

“Planet-saving wind farms fall victim to global inflation fight” and “Energy economist accuses Harbour of “fancy accounting”

I used to think that EV was a decent online publication with impartial reporting. I’m surprised the Editors aren’t aware of confirmation bias. If I was Harbour I would refuse to engage with this outfit. Wind farms are planet saving? Bit of a claim. No mention of the initial costs, suffering caused by redirecting capital away from poorer nations who can’t afford virtue signalling without getting into the cost of steel, rising fertiliser prices, cement necessary and of course the essential ingredient – fossil fuels.
The second headline describes the source as “Energy economist” Greg Muttitt of IISD Energy. The IISD is yet another Institute anti fossil and pro-renewables. Fair enough but don’t hide it. Also Greg Muttitt came to IISD via the Greenpeace route. I googled it but you aren’t really expected to read much further than the headline. I thought IISD was a renewables company; I’d never heard of them before. Another lobby company funded by charities is another description.

"Dear Sadiq,
I am a Labour party member and a resident of Enfield, Southgate with an interest in energy and climate change. Whilst I appreciate the diverse opinions and activism involved I have come to the conclusion that a transition is required away from fossil fuels that will require their use for many years to come. It appears we are hell-bent on shutting down the North Sea and relying on imports in the not so distant future. You are playing your part here.
My concern is that the activists have now taken over and we [Labour] are quoting their claptrap that renewables are 9X cheaper than fossil fuels (Keir Starmer, New Year speech and Davos 2023). People will soon expect a huge reduction in their electric bills!
My greater worry though is moving around London. On 14 February 2023 I attended a juststopoil meeting in Bloomsbury. At the meeting, Aaron a physics graduate and speaker for juststopoil, brazenly and proudly announced that from April 2023 they would stop glueing themselves to roads and bridges and instead adopt a perfectly legal protest called “the slow march” which consists of lining up across major highways and walking at a funereal pace for several hours bringing traffic basically to a halt. I am giving you advance warning and I am interested in what steps you will take to either stop the protest or are you going to join it [the protest]?

Yours Sincerely"
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I sent it recorded delivery. No reply so far. Aaron actually has the CarbonBrief article on his phone. I gently explained to him that repeating a lie doesn't make it become true and is Trumpesque. I did like Joe the anarchist though and understood his problem in raising £35 (cash) train fare to Chelmsford Crown Court regarding his arrest at the Navigator protest as he doesn't believe in cards or participatory economics. I declined the training on the Sunday.

I think Rookie has ruined this board. He makes Joe seem normal.

Enjoyable as ranting is a message board is the equivalent of a "four ale bar". I wrote to HBR in February with the title 'The Big Lie".
"Dear Linda, I am only a small retail investor in oil and gas and this information is in the public domain but I haven’t seen it picked up by the media. At the 20 July Environmental Audit Committee hearing you were lied to three times.
14:43:20 Khan says on renewables “which are at the moment 4X cheaper than gas”
15:23:10 Lucas says “Linda Cook on something you said people buy oil and gas not because they like it but because it’s cheaper, can we just clarify that we do accept that renewables are 4X cheaper than gas”
Then later in the same exchange
15:23;50 “be quite careful with language and it is the case that renewables are 4X cheaper than gas.”
-----------------------------
With their success at getting away with this exaggeration they built upon it and in November doubled down:
6 Nov 2022 Ed Miliband – Sunday with Laura Kuensberg “solar and wind power is 9X cheaper than fossil fuels.”
6 Nov 2022 Adrian Ramsey – Green Party on Sky TV used the 9X quote
8 Nov 2022 – Sam Johnson juststopoil LBC “renewables are 9X cheaper than fossil fuels”
10 Nov 2022 Question Time - Caroline Lucas Green Party 44:00
“rather than chasing after more gas which is 9X more expensive than renewables”
There are no doubt more that I didn’t catch.
05/01/2023 in Keir Starmer’s New Year Speech he said “"renewables are 9X cheaper than IMPORTED fossil fuels".
And at Davos 19/01/2023 on a CNBC WEF Forum again repeated that “in the UK renewables are 9X cheaper than oil and gas”

Use this information any way you like but I think the British public need to be told the truth. There is clear collusion between the activists and the Green and Labour parties. This seems to be the source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-low-price-for-uk-offshore-wind-is-four-times-cheaper-than-gas/ "

I also attended a juststopoil meeting last month. It reminded me of the Tooting Popular Front. I have written to Sadiq Khan, Sir Mark Rowley, OEUK, my MP etc...

The activists have made a lot of mistakes and I was always told that"a half-truth is worse than a lie". Like religion, green activists are seldom challenged. Fossil fuels are a soft target and much more complicated than the public are led to believe.

Oh silly me. It's the utilities. Those O&G companies are still the enemy.

This was leaked earlier. Source The Guardian.

"The pledge that has been most clearly abandoned is the one saying “public services should be in public hands, not making profits for shareholders”. Asked why he was no longer committed to nationalising energy companies, Starmer said that his team looked at this last summer, as energy bill were rising, and concluded:

We would have to spend a lot of public money on public ownership, that because the energy companies were still buying on the international market, it wouldn’t lower the price and we wouldn’t be able to lower the bills for people into the autumn.

Having done that analysis, I took the political choice that it would be better to have an energy price freeze paid for by a windfall tax on the oil and gas companies that made profits they didn’t expect to make."

No, I can't make sense of it either. I thought he'd say just abandon fossils and choose something cleaner and 9X cheaper.
So is energy now no longer a public service? Instead he has declared unending hostility towards the energy industry and they are already repaying in kind by abandoning the North Sea.

Might as well claim against God for the damage he caused in Turkey and Syria with the earthquake. Nope, not possible.
OK - I'll claim against Mother Nature just as they claim to be working for 'Client Earth'. Perhaps they'll defend Mother Nature for her abuses towartds the human race and destruction of habitat by volcanoes and the like. Floods and storms existed before oil was even discovered. Mother Nature is a vicious cow and should be locked up.
Ideological idiocy. I used to laugh at Scientology but anything is now acceptable. Proof isn't necessary but finding someone to blame can make you feel better.
We are overpopulated due to advances made possible by (I'll accept) fossil fuels. So what is the plan. Reduce fossil fuels immediately and starve billions to get the right balance?
I met a WW1 veteran in the 70's. In my lifetime I've had a contact with someone born when the world population was between 1.6-2 billion and we recently passed 8 billion. The forecast is 10 billion by the end of the Century.

M - there is ESG madness in your country and Sweden too.

O/T Mansardman - I once spent a week skiing with a guy from the RN who maintained helicopters and another guy in the Royal Tank Regiment. The stories and the banter was of a high level and they said I would have fitted in well in "the mob". I took it as a compliment.
One of the best stories was the tank guy talking of a NATO exercise. They had to jump into the sea from a helicopter. It was in their opinion too high and needed to go lower. The German pilot explained that to go any lower was too dangerous as the downdraft could cause the helicopter to crash into the sea killing all aboard. The soldiers reluctantly jumped and were lucky not to be injured.
The helicopter was a Sea King.

A rare case of Germans showing a sense of humour.

To Stephen *****, leader of the SNP in parliament, for pointing out today at PM QT that the Prime Minister and Chancellor have been handed a windfall of £15 bn following the wholesale price of gas being 75% cheaper since its peak. He accused the government of raiding the pockets of ordinary Scots and lining the pockets of Westminster.
I'm all for open debate but think in this case the SNP are wrong. It is not a windfall; it's a confiscation. We've been doing it for centuries. A bit late to make a fuss now!

*Rishi Sunak said that Scotland should concentrate on investing in producing more home grown gas which the SNP opposes!

Along comes the pub bore with his half of shandy. It all goes quiet as people shuffle away from him. He stands alone not quite understanding how normal people act.

The oil field rigger was in excrutiating agony when the consultant stopped at his hospital bed. The doctor said "I have good and bad news for you, in what order would you like them?"
"Guess I'll have the bad news first, doc" replied the rigger.
The consultant said "unfortunately we're going to have to amputate both your legs"
"Oh sh*t, what's the good new then?" pleaded the rigger.
"The bloke in the next bed wants to buy your slippers" said the doctor.
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Today Energy Voice: "A senior government trade official hailed decommissioning as “one of the UK’s greatest strengths” during an industry conference yesterday."
Speaking virtually at the Subsea Expo in Aberdeen, Andrew Mitchell, director general at the Department for International Trade, described the sector as an area with “massive potential for export growth”.
The “blueprint for the future” aims to capitalise on the North Sea’s two decades worth of experience removing and scrapping structures, by taking the skills developed to the rest of the world.

*I think I know why he attended virtually.

"Oil and Gas Giants" regarding the North Sea. I'm not after slide rule accuracy but I cannot use the NSTA site. I actually introduced Matrix Observer to the old OGA site and he was a dab hand but no longer a regular here. I can't navigate the new site. The public know the difference between an "Oil Giant" and a company they've never heard of. Then, what column do you put Spirit Energy (Centrica) in for example?
We need to get simple and check each others workings. We want accuracy but not satellite precision. Gas is 50/50 UK Production/Imports.
Oil production is C. 900K bopd and more nuanced. Like the US we import/export crude but are close (I believe) to self sufficiency. If we stop production we will still have to import and revenue/taxation will obviously drop. Google says we got half of imported crude from Norway (a small country like Scotland) and a quarter of refined from Russia (no idea now) but that complicates it so just let's stay with what is extracted from the UK NS and where the taxes go.
We need to attack the mischaracterization of O&G companies by Labour, Green party and climate activists plus explain the split between O&G to those even thicker than us.

*Lea Valley - the Cucumber, pepper & aubergine capital of Britain is home to another industry going to the wall in the UK. Energy and fertilizer costs making them uneconomic. A heat pump doesn't work when you want to basically want to heat a glass tent so even if 9X existed it wouldn't help. I may write to their association. The Lea valley is well known to me and January24. We grew up next to it.