Member Info for romaron

Energy Voice today:

"For the first time ever, the UK shelled out more than £100 billion on annual energy imports in 2022.

Last year’s £117bn bill is also more than double 2021’s total of £54bn, according to data in a new report from Offshore Energies UK (OEUK).

And there are warnings that UK consumers and businesses could face similar import costs again in 2023, especially if there’s no change to the government’s North Sea windfall tax.

The stark findings are included in OEUK’s latest business outlook report, due to be published on March 28, and come as MPs prepare to debate the ‘energy trilemma’ in the House of Commons tomorrow.

According to the study, last year’s energy import bill equates to £4,200 for every UK household."

Maybe we should gear up to pepper the media once we've seen the report next Tuesday. I was pondering this last night. We assume NSTA is onside but in fact it is in the name "Transition". They are a government agency and do as they're told. "Energy security" is a very flexible concept. Of course renewables work - at a price. Our bananas will still be grown abroad.

Runner - that might be how people feel in Doncaster but I find your post pretty offensive. I have Albanian friends, all of them hard working and not into drug dealing. I have black and brown friends too whilst my wife is first generation immigrant. I thought you were better than that.

"Recent polling from 38 Degrees found that 40% of people in our community haven't been able to turn the heating on. The energy bill crisis is far from over, but while houses in Enfield Southgate struggle to make ends meet, oil and gas giants continue to rake in record profits."

I'm no Therapist but this looks like the polling from 5968 respondents: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LjUu3Hswu9NP9OD4q47ti4F9peSqVzHB/edit#gid=1595950652

I also did a survey in Enfield/Southgate. In random pubs I asked how many people who were bill payers availed themselves of the energy bill handouts. It was 100%. I asked how many had turned down the heating. The answer was 100%. I asked how many had turned it off. The answer was None 100%. I was then told to shut up and get a round in. I didn't want to ask about world peace and immigration. Perhaps another time.

This is the most disappointing excerpt: "That's why I believe the Tory government's plans to double down on fossil fuels with new exploration in the North Sea is the wrong answer to the fossil fuel crisis we face. I recognise that we need to continue to use the North Sea, including production from existing fields. However, new exploration there will have no effect on energy bills and would take a long time to come on stream - with an average of 28 years from exploration to production. It would also divert investment from renewables and seriously undermine our efforts to fight the climate crisis."

I realise it is cut & paste and not the first time we've read this but he is either disingenuous or not very bright. B&B could be pumping in 3-5 years as we've already known about them for 20 odd years. A half-truth is worse than a lie. There is no "low-bar" in politics.

I've sent him another:

"Dear Bambos,

Thank you for your reply which was extensive and sad to say, predictable. I understand the importance of staying on message but you came over as an apparatchik on rails. I forgot to add that I am a qualified plumber and surveyor and was also involved with the Labour Party between 2007 and 2010 sitting on a committee that sat at Eland House where I met several Housing ministers. I am also a certified Green Deal Domestic Advisor although that has lapsed. I understand you are a trained solicitor.
I realise the reply was extensive because it is a standard response that relies on repetition and includes inaccuracies. I could be useful to you but an ideological rant helps nobody. There are no “oil giants” left in the North Sea other than the rump of Shell/BP assets which are decreasing all the time. Your “unearned oil and gas profits” is hardly grown-up. The industry never invaded Ukraine and the wind-fall was unexpected and badly needed as the companies necessary for the energy transition have been struggling for years. In fact, without these companies the transition will not happen and many are considering exiting the UK. It will be necessary to import oil and gas to replace them if your [Labour] plans go ahead.
I think that if Labour are the next government they will find their plans impossibly expensive and expected revenue will be severely reduced due to the exit of many O&G companies. I am a Labour voter but I’m afraid I cannot vote for you with your inflexible ideology. I cannot vote Tory either so I will have to miss the next election I’m sorry to say. Thank you for mentioning 38 degrees and their polling. I’d never heard of them before. I agree on energy efficiency but it isn’t cheap insulating homes and the cost of renewables is much higher than present Labour propaganda states.

I wish you good luck at the General Election.

Probably nothing but if you click on ALT on the graphic you get this:

"Image description
Graphic with sunrise over hill with wind turbines, and text:

Labour will bring down the cost of living for good

We'd create Great British Energy, a publicly owned green energy company - new wave, wind, and solar power will deliver jobs across the country.

Sustainable power will keep your bills low, as clean energy is 9 times cheaper than fossil fuels.

And we’d reverse the Tory tax cut for the top 1%. Spreading power, wealth, and opportunity everywhere, to everyone - not just to the richest few."

I'm guessing that ALT is an advertising company but it is intriguing that some posts omit the "9X cheaper" part; especially Rachel Reeves. I doubt it is accidental.

*The labour Party have the 9X quote but not the Shadow Chancellor. Oh dear, more emails.

Quick question Zippy. Are NSTA and their backers, BEIS, considered "the enemy" and anti-fossil fuels?

It certainly feels like it to me.

use of the term 'energy security'
"NSTA launches probe into firm suspected of undermining UK energy security" source Energy Voice.

'Companies are expected to progress exploration as quickly as possible and to 'pursue economic recovery' while assisting the government in the drive to reach net zero.'

The company is unnamed but I so do hope they're reasonably large and well known. A court case would be nice because in an arrangement you'd expect the government to honour their side of the bargain. The windfall tax would make most future projects uneconomic. Might as well pay the 'up to' £1million financial penalty and save many more millions.

I certainly appreciate your efforts Therapist. I imagine you'll have to dig even deeper to find figures with a pound sterling (£) sign in front of them.

Don't ask a barber if you need a haircut.
Don't ask a climate change "scientist" for an unbiased appraisal.

I cannot understand the oil and gas industry's reticence in not producing a kinda CPR on the various projections. Maybe one is in the system?

*bumped into Jesus at Aldi this morning. He told me "The Rapture is coming".

I was thinking about the remaining RB 7% due 15 October this year. Accounts are not my thing but it is something like £111 mio. It is trading at roughly 99 so a YTM of c.9% which certainly isn't in danger territory and I am relaxed about our other bonds.
We are needed for the transition and when reality returns I expect us to return to above par if it happens in the next few weeks. I was wondering about rolling over the RB because I believe there is an appetite for it and many retail investors could spread their UK risk. It seems to attract a lower rate than $HYN's possibly because of built in protection but a useful alternative not open to many. At the ridiculous pricing of O&G there are plenty of bargains but a shortage of capital.

The memo obviously hasn't gone to the troops. It is an almost identical ad or whatever you call it. I should really take screen shots but I'm not expert enough. I have sent off a salvo of emails.

Interesting. The Rachel Reeves one doesn't have the 9X quote.

https://twitter.com/search?q=labour%20will%20bring%20down%20cost%20of%20living&src=typed_query

Thanks GA - found it. And they complain about Boris Johnson's lies. Rachel Reeves and the Labour Party amongst many others propagating the following:

"Labour will bring down the cost of living for good

We'll create Great British Energy, a publicly owned green energy company - new wave, wind, and solar power will deliver jobs across the country.

Sustainable power will keep your bills low, as clean energy is 9 times cheaper than fossil fuels.

And we'd reverse the Tory tax cut for the top 1%.
Spreading power, wealth, and opportunity everywhere, to everyone - not just to the richest few."

Surely there is someone or organisation with the clout to challenge this outrageous claim?

are we sure it has to be published? Sounds more like they've got to the 30th. If it's the 23rd then EnQuest could have gone for the week starting 27th for the Preliminary 2022 Results. looks like they're making sure.

Thanks Dumbly. So we'll know by 30 March if there's any action on EPL included in the Energy Security strategy . Otherwise it's "purdah" until after 6 May.

26 May, the day they announced the windfall tax. Natural Gas was 8.88; today 2.3873

Brent was 111.66; today 70.90

As a country we are running out of gas and oil in commercial quantities but politicians and environmentalists refuse to accept the realities and continue to act as though it is a vibrant industry making huge profits for "oil and gas giants" by which I assume they mean the super-majors who aren't in the North Sea in relevance . They [Labour] have a history of reverting to collectivism and socialism when opportunities (like now) arise. Our largest, Shell and BP, didn't necessarily anticipate the state we're in now but the fields were becoming increasingly smaller and there were better opportunities elsewhere commercially.
But the industry is being attacked as if we are still in the 1980's and ia still a huge export industry. The industry peaked around 2000 and is now a mature province on a slow decline. Well it was. Now it's a maturing industry on an increasing spiral of destruction stimulated by applying the EPL in a knee-jerk reaction by a floundering government. This is exacerbated by the Labour Party's misunderstanfing of the industry and believing the crackpot outpourings of Red Ed and Caroline Lucas. They are possibly even more dangerous and threatening.
We're F ucked

I look back at the Audit Committee meeting in July. They eviscerated Linda Cook as though it was a witch trial. The Shell and BP representatives were easily capable of diverting the questions because it didn't really affect their company and the only one fighting was LC, EPL to them is academic and they were very relaxed and almost in agreement with the attacks. It didn't matter to them. There was little the government could/can do to Shell or BP and in fact for fairness sake there should have been representatives for whom it was important. LC knows when she's outnumbered and when to retreat. I'd simply say that the companies required to make the transition weren't there and it was a "show trial"

It could have been so different. O&G is inextricably linked to renewables and will be required well past Net Zero (2050?).
We've decided we want to import O&G.

Can they exist/operate/provide reliability/keep hospitals open/facilitate transport etc. without gas and oil? We'll soon find out. Russia and the Saudis must be rubbing their hands together in anticipation. Of course the U.S. is always there - at a price?

I'm too old to emigrate.

My take out:

2. Debt and 3 year hedging covenants means an additional topside risk.
3. Norway fields are much fresher, larger and the country is fiscally stable. Cannot compare as Labour proclaim.
6. Death of infill drilling. “Infill drilling can be quickly sanctioned, and wells delivered within just a few months. But that means the lion’s share of their revenue falls inside the EPL window. This involves dividing a projects NPV by its Capex. The EPL chops NPV down, meaning companies with assets and projects overseas will now easily beat the UK for any investment."
7. It removes debt capacity - a lot! RBL's are rapidly going out of fashion as they can quickly become short-term debt. Access to capital disappears.
8./9/10 “It threatens public services” Winning an election trumps economics.
“Our energy security is compromised” We knew that anyway.
“It is bad for the environment” Just turn on the import tap over which we have no control.