Member Info for RogueRiver

The narrative has definitely changed in the last few days. Until recently, the biggest impediment to international air travel from the UK was our own government’s reluctance to allow Brits to travel overseas, with the risk of their importing new variants. The biggest problem now is that many important destinations (most notably the U.S.) do not want UK tourists or, more to the point, the increased Delta variant risk (further complicated by differing vaccine standards between different countries). This is an unfortunate development, but it is likely to mean that any summer recovery (and we are almost halfway through the summer already) is not going to happen. If all goes well, we might start to see an uptick from the autumn.

I think I’m going to set 195p as my sell limit, given that it briefly hit that price this year. I bought in 3 years ago and, even with the divi reinvested, I’m no better off now. Given these are supposed to be good times for HBs, I am decidedly underwhelmed. I have concluded that, while TW is a very good company, currently in a booming market, the shares are just a bit cr@p.

I think there will be plenty of opportunities to buy in here in the 140s over the next couple of years. I’m certainly in no rush. I think the next IAG ‘lost summer’ update is going to be a very sobering reality check for investors. IAG is a very good company, but given the debt and dilution, IAG is unlikely to be paying a decent dividend until the end of the decade. That’s assuming all goes well from here and none of the other problems that tend to get in the way from time-to-time (e.g. strikes, terrorism, fuel prices) intervene. There’s just too much risk here - and some of us might be dead before the rewards come.

All I know is that, since Elliot Management came on the scene, a couple of months ago, the sp has gained about 12%. If that’s supposed to be a bad thing, please can we have some more of it?

Peter Levine: “We want to tell you about an exciting new business venture that will exploit the wonders of hydrogen energy. It may even entitle you to some free shares!”

Market: ”About your accounts.”

I would put money on NEX making a full recovery, long before IAG has paid off its debt pile. In fact, I have put money on it.

@sunsurfer

Given today's fall, your sell was a wise move.

I have been bearish on IAG since last Nov, when it was becoming increasingly obvious the airlines would not be seeing any substantial summer recovery. I'm amazed the sp has stood up so well. Even the 'pent up demand' argument is starting to wear a little thin, given that many people are being turned-off the idea of international travel when they see 7-hour queues at the airport and all the additional Covid-related hassle involved.

There is no doubt IAG is a well managed company, which will come out of this leaner and more competitive (and, unlike some of the competition, still operating). I think investors are giving IAG a lot of credit for that - perhaps a little too much, in the circs.

I cannot see IAG paying anything approaching its previous divi, until well into the second half of this decade. That's, assuming, in the meantime, none of the other problems that tend to affect this industry from time-to-time (fuel hikes, strikes, terrorism etc) intervene in any major way.

This would have to fall below 150 for me to risk another buy-in.

A 'recovery stock' needs a recovery, which, unfortunately, is still looking a long way off for IAG.

It looks like the market may have finally dug out their calculators. IAG is still priced for a summer recovery. Given that we are already a third of the way through the summer, with no substantial return to international air travel in prospect, I think this still has further to fall. I don't think we will see any dramatic change until the next IAG trading update though.

Who knows? If the next update is better than awful, as has happened with the last two updates, there might even be an uptick, but it's difficult to see how, unless IAG have found some further (very hefty) cost savings.

stt1 said:
"What's your definition of a 'healthy correction' and how does it differ from a crash?
Any correction or crash, will have an impact on HBs."

My understanding accords with the definitions below. A correction would probably have a minimal and temporary impact on HBs, while a crash would most likely cause a steep and sustained fall.

What is a property price correction?
This is when there is a minor drop in the market, usually when the home price index falls by not more than 10% from the highest price within a year. They happen more frequently than you might expect and are actually a good thing as they help to restore balance to the market and prevent over-inflation of prices.

What is a crash?
A crash, on the other hand, is much less common than you might think and is when the price index falls by more than 10% from the 52-week peak value. They are relatively rare and are usually accompanied by a strong decline in other economic areas, such as an overall recession.

Yep, it is bad news. Looks like Putin will be taking much of the divi for the foreseeable future.

Russia prepares to hit metals firms with $2.3 billion in export taxes in Aug-Dec
By Reuters Staff

MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russia is preparing new export taxes for steel products, nickel, aluminium and copper which will cost their producers $2.3 billion between Aug. 1 and Dec. 31, its officials told a government meeting on Thursday.

Moscow wants to protect its defence and construction industries from further growth in raw materials costs as prices for metals rise at a global level.

“Our economy is not ready for the kind of avalanche-like shock transfer of global prices to the domestic market that we have seen over the past year,” First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said.

“The increase in domestic prices for certain metals ranged from 60% to 100%.”

Moscow will use the August to December period, while the extra taxes are in place, to prepare a permanent mechanism to “accumulate part of the profits from these superfavourable market conditions”, the economy minister Maxim Reshetnikov said.

Taxing ferrous metals such as steel will bring in 114 billion roubles ($1.6 billion), and base metals such as nickel and aluminium 50 billion roubles, Belousov said, adding that that represents 20%-25% of the “excessive income” firms will get from a favourable market.

He said he believed the size of metals exports from Russia would remain unaffected by the tax.

The expected tax take is above Belousov’s previous estimate. He said in May that Russian metals producers could face a demand to pay 100 billion roubles in additional tax to the government for what he termed ‘screwing the state’.

Russia’s Nornickel, the world’s largest producer of refined nickel, and Rusal, the world’s largest aluminium producer outside China, as well as the main steel producers did not reply to a Reuters request for comment.

My other thought was, did they supply the steel for the collapsed building in Miami Beach (RIP)? They didn't, as the building is nearly 40 years old.

It might have been a spurious drop, triggering algorithmic selling. It will probably have largely recovered by the close.

No idea. The only thing I can think of is the current UK/Russia sabre-rattling in the Black Sea, though quite how that might affect Evraz's bottom line, I don't know.

Definitely a plodder, but at least it's plodding up these days. I sold my entire holding after a year of zero gain, then bought back in at 58p when it briefly crashed in Nov 19 (caused by some big holder announcing they were selling their entire position). I think it's onwards and upwards from here. We have a well managed group, a divi, plus huge infrastructure works and house building over the next decade. What's not to like?

I took the opportunity to reduce my holding on today's rise, at a small profit. I had broken my own rule and allowed my GSK holding to represent 11% of my portfolio, having listened to some opinions that said a large holding in a big successful company really wasn't much of a risk. It is now down just below 5%, which is my limit for any one holding. Won't be making that mistake again. I have no doubt the future will be good for GSK. Demergers of big companies like GSK are usually successful, with the spin-off company usually up by 20% within 3 years of demerger. I'm happy to keep holding here, albeit with a reduced risk.

I doubt the sp will budge until we have seen the (delayed) accounts. Given the track record of this company, you can hardly blame investors for being suspicious of the slightest hiccup.

Tempted to dip my toe in with a modest holding, but every time I think of a buy limit, the sp falls below it. I'm now thinking of a 150 buy limit. If the rout continues, though, it could easily end up in the 100-150 range. Nationalization seems improbable, but the political risks here are considerable - and very difficult to price in.

The rally lasted nearly a whole day this time, rather than an hour, so things must be looking up.

Shorts? PPC has many problems, but I doubt that’s one of them. The jump is very clearly a reaction to the PH re-rating.

MORGAN STANLEY RAISES BREEDON PRICE TARGET TO 119 (112) PENCE - 'OVERWEIGHT’.

5p? I’d be more than happy with their old 3.5p target right now. Still, it’s nice to see a bit of positive ratings news.