Member Info for RogueRiver

I don’t think the market has yet priced in the full impact of another lost summer for the airline industry - and realistically that is what we are looking at here. I think the sp will probably be in the 185-195 range this week.

The real trouble will come once IAG spells out, later this year, the full effects of this summer (i.e. more debt and a projected date for a return to profitability probably kicked into the second half of the decade). That’s a long time to wait around for a (much reduced) divi.

It briefly hit 844p on Monday, so I think that might be a realistic short-term target. Long-term, who knows? Barring any major setbacks, if growth continues at its current pace £10 seems quite possible.

We will probably be back in the teens next week. The much vaunted Paraguay farmout was greeted with indifference, no one is buying the dips (perhaps the traders have realised time is up on their very transparent game) and the delay in the accounts has kiboshed the tentative recovery.

OWLS. Selling a share just because it is showing a loss can also be very unwise. I have held shares that halved in value which later more than doubled what I paid for them. If it is a speculative share, then I would agree with you, but NEX certainly isn’t that.

PB1, I did just that and added today. People are already staycationing and travelling via National Express. On the other hand, air travel is still at a virtual standstill and probably won’t take off in any meaningful way until next spring/summer.

Strange that MW are short on NEX, yet long on IAG. I’m betting the former will be showing a healthy profit, long before the latter has finished paying off its humongous debt pile.

I may be bearish on TW, but I do not agree with your conclusion, stt1. There is a shortage of housing in the UK, which shows no signs of abating. People are living longer and the number of single-person households is rising exponentially. There may be a healthy correction in house prices in the next couple of years, but a crash? I very much doubt it.

This from the Daily Telegraph - and yet, NEX still cannot manage a rally.

Public transport use at highest level since pandemic started, says GoAhead

The Go-Ahead Group said today passenger volumes were higher than at any point during the pandemic, with regional bus numbers now at 70pc of pre-crisis levels compared to 20pc in March.

The company said a pent up demand for leisure retail and social contact was encouraging people to use its service.

Group chief executive, David Brown, added:

After more than a year of COVID-19 restrictions limiting travel, it is great to see our buses and trains carrying more passengers as these restrictions start to ease and people enjoy the benefits of communities and businesses reopening.

There are more people using our services today than at any point over the pandemic and we are ready to safely welcome more people back to our buses and trains.

Indeed, trunky, but the market is generally able to look beyond temporary problems, to the longer-term prospects of a company. TW never seems to progress far from one setback, before hitting the next one.

Whatever the reason, it appears to have sh@t on the (already shaky) chances of a recovery in the sp for now.

‘Cladding’, ‘Brexit’, ‘materials supply shortages’, ‘cyclical issues’, whatever. TW is a share constantly looking for a reason to underperform - and it rarely fails to find one. Sorry to be so negative, but there comes a point where you just have to face the fact that this is not a particularly good holding.

Traders may be selling on the good news, but unlike previously, they do not appear to be buying the dips, which is a worrying trend here.

I think PL could announce he had struck gold right now - and the sp still wouldn’t budge. It is going to take solid results for a sustained period, plus no more shenanigans, to move the sp in the right direction. What we appear to have at the moment are investors bailing out whenever the opportunity presents itself.

Russia has not been communist for 30 years. Russia is a kleptocracy and, as odious as its leader may be, it does have a relatively stable and consistent political system and economy. I hold Evraz, which does most of its business in Russia (and has gained almost 50% since I bought in). I think the problem with Peru at the moment is the unpredictability of its (presumed) new leader. He might leave Hochschild to tick along nicely. On the other hand, he might nationalise the whole thing. Nobody knows, hence the falling sp.

He may not win, but most probably he will. I have set a buy limit at 175p - and yet, I suspect even this may prove too generous. This has ‘falling knife’ written all over it.

The market seems to be pretty cool on the acquisition news. The rest of the news was probably priced in already.

The rallies used to last for a few days - now it’s just a few hours.

The sp can barely rally, even in a property boom. Having held TW for over 3 years and reinvested the divi, I have come to the conclusion it is a pretty rubbish holding. The only bright spot was the brief hike into the 220s in the early 2020s.

It is extremely unfortunate, but anyone who says they did not see this as a probability must be somewhat naive. I have been bearish on IAG since November, when it was becoming increasingly likely there would be no summer bounce back for international travel. IAG will be able to weather the storm, even with more debt. I’m amazed the sp has held up so well though, given that a further capital raise may well be necessary next year.

It’s very difficult to see where the ceiling will be for the sp, even in the short to medium term. Clearly the market sees Clipper as having exponential growth potential. The new contracts being generated by the company seems to bear this out.