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I think the market may have priced in any possible negatives, given that the sp seems to have settled in the early 800s. The results might mention increasing fuel costs and the possibility of future driver shortages, but I doubt there will be anything to dramatically throw the sp.

A 1.25% daily gain is not to be sniffed at. It should creep up to 400 within a couple of weeks. The company may not be in the greatest of shape, but it has a lot of (virtually guaranteed) lucrative contract work lined up for years to come, which has not escaped the notice of potential bidders.

Ditto. Hopefully it will rally into the 400-450 range on takeover rumours, then a bid will come at a 20-40% premium. That would give you, me and a lot of other holders a modest loss, but a blessed relief to this car crash. If there is no bid, just stay in for the long haul and eventually it will recoup its losses.

Hi Gavster-NBC. My reading of the Q&A is that they haven’t got a clue how they are going to deal with the new taxation, which means they are probably going to have to cough up. The Russian state has absolutely nothing to lose by depriving UK holders of their divi - and everything to gain by raking in new revenues from the steel boom. Evraz may well be able to avoid some of the taxation, for a limited period, but I doubt the state will give them much wiggle room.

The bottom line is that, while the good times continue to roll for Evraz, the government is going to be taking a fair chunk of their profits. Those holders who are happy to take the ‘wait and see’ approach could see the market cap and dividends being gradually eroded over the next few years.

Gavster-NBC said: “Essentially there is the hint that to avoid the taxation on profits, additional CAPEX spending might be done so keeping the value within the company, meaning less in dividends but arguable more jam tomorrow”

The Russian government has already indicated that this taxation on profits will be applied on a more permanent basis:

‘Moscow will use the August to December period, while the extra taxes are in place, to prepare a permanent mechanism to “accumulate part of the profits from these superfavourable market conditions”, the economy minister Maxim Reshetnikov said.’

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-metals-taxation-idUSKCN2E0149

How will Evraz manage to avoid the taxation in the way you suggest if, say, the steel boom continues for the next 5-10 years? It is not a realistic long-term tax avoidance strategy.

On the other hand, if the current boom is a flash in the pan and the taxation is removed once steel prices return to normal, any accumulated ‘jam’ is likely to run out pretty quickly, with the market cap (and dividend) falling in line with steel prices.

All indications from Clipper suggest that the results and outlook for the company will be stellar.

Correction: potential $22bn upside.

The market appears to view the proposed lse de-listing as a positive, given the potential £22bn upside. Yes, some FTSE blue chip funds will be forced to sell, but there will also be a lot of buyers lining up to acquire this very attractive holding.

It just has come about. :)

“John Lewis has signed a three-year lease on a 300,000 sq ft distribution centre in Bardon, Leicestershire, which it will start using this month to help deal with the busy Black Friday discount period in late November. That site will be run by the specialist Clipper Logistics.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/aug/11/covid-john-lewis-to-open-warehouse-employing-500-to-meet-online-demand

Strangely, that 20k ‘sell’ is dated 11 Aug. Could it be a (very) late reported buy from yesterday?

Hmm, let’s not kid ourselves. Given the buoyant energy market of the past few months, the performance of this share has been dreadful. Hopefully, this most recent (still unexplained) crash was a blip and the sp can at least maintain its mediocre performance, until it finds a reason to improve.

Finally, I have set my buy limit at 140, which I think is fair, given the risk/reward here.

Correction: That’s 3 weeks. (Bought the dip at 112 on 19 Jul.)

After opening a position here, I’ve had to wait 2 weeks, rather than 2 days, for 120, but I’m not complaining.

I opened a position in IMB around the same time as I did in BAT. I am in the black with IMB, but 7% down with BAT, so the problem seems to be with the company, rather than with the industry as a whole. Hopefully this is a temporary phenomenon.

I have yet to see any (credible) explanation as to why the modest gains of the last 8 months have been wiped out in 3 trading days. We certainly need to see those final results, but I doubt they will bring any surprises.

BAB is definitely my worst buy of all time. My average is 627, so I regard being down by around 50% now, as something of a triumph! It’s a good reminder of why it is important to be diversified across a wide range of sectors and companies. Thankfully, my successes far outweigh my ‘dogs’.

Hi Pjf

I’m sure someone will come along and give you a highly technical answer, but, as has been said before, this share is just a bit of a plodder. It could bounce around between 100p and 110p for the next 12 months. It can be very frustrating, but the fundamentals are fine, so just give it time.

I bought in in 2018 after the sp crashed and I also took up the rights issue. I closed my position when the sp hit 165 and reopened it (albeit with a smaller holding) later. So I am just about up overall, but very much down on my last buy-in. I had pretty much written off my CPI shares, so any bounce now is a bonus. I do not think 80p will be too much of a stretch, but £1.60 might take a few years.