Member Info for RogueRiver

Hi Oracle
I don’t believe that the change to the foreign operator rules will affect Clipper at all (other than positively). Clipper’s core business is to offer long-term e-fulfilment contracts to major online retailers (including interim warehouse storage and returns processing), rather than a simple A - B transportation service. Anything that eases the current driver shortage is to be welcomed - and will help to ease driver recruitment and retention problems for any business that operates HGVs.

Nice to see the trend moving in the right direction again.

I could be mistaken, but wasn’t there a provision that, if the poo went above $45pb for so many days, the price that Argentinian producers could ask would automatically reflect this?

I think one of the big IIs have been reducing their position here, owing to economic headwinds (a probable impending household spending squeeze), increased fuel and power costs and driver shortages. I think these are all temporary phenomena though, resulting from the post-Covid recovery. I have topped up my holding by a third today, as I think there is only one long-term direction of travel for this share. I think we will be back in the 800s by Christmas.

Getting in here anywhere between 1.00 and 1.50 is a pretty safe investment in the mid-long term.

Gas prices go through the roof, the POO is high - and President’s sp falls. You may have to pull your positive hat on a lot tighter.

The sp certainly needed a rocket up its @r** and this seems to have done it.

This morning’s fall triggered my 140p buy limit order, so I’m in, at last. Hopefully, I won’t have cause to regret it.

May1

Sorry to be blunt, but averaging down is a mug’s game. Far better to spread your risk over a range of companies and sectors, which makes it easier to roll with the punches when they do come. My advice is to stop digging, hold what you have and put any spare funds into something completely different.

I have been saying since earlier this year that I though another RI was likely, when it became obvious there would be no summer bounce-back for air travel. I do not think IAG is in danger of folding, but clearly their recovery is being kicked further down the road. When is IAG likely to be paying a decent divi again? With further dilution, it is hard to see them being able to do so until near the end of this decade. The sp needs better to reflect the prevailing risk/reward. It is getting there, but I think it would need to be nearer £1 to tempt me back in.

For those whose average is higher than the current sp, just be patient. We have all been there. The sp will almost certainly recover, but be prepared for a lot of turbulence in the meantime.

Qzqz
The music has been slowing since earlier this year, when it became clear there would be no summer recovery for international air travel (albeit the tune abruptly changed several months ago, when we went from facing a Covid threat from across the pond to them facing one from us). You are right though. The slow dancing appears to have stopped, now that the lights are up and everyone can see the true damage that has been wrought upon the company.

Hedge fund Marshall Wace went long on IAG and built a 3% stake in the company. I would not be surprised if they were offloading a huge wedge in anticipation of further dilution.

I wish I could be as accurate in all my predictions, but the current state of the sp seemed to be entirely predictable, months ago.

Here is what I posted on 28 March:

“All I can see is the debt pile growing, while the overseas travel market will continue to be depressed, thanks to a combination of onerous restrictions and airport chaos, for the rest of the year. IAG’s survival is not in doubt, but it is going to be a very long slog back to profitability. I think we will be lucky to see the sp in the 130-150 range in H2, during which IAG will probably issue some pretty sobering guidance.”

I am still reluctant to open a position here again, because there are so many unknowns at play - including the prospect of another diluting RI. What is the value of a company that probably won’t be in a position to pay a decent divi again until the end of this decade? I think it will have to go sub 125p to tempt me in again.

A lot of people here are using the previous RI as a guide to what will happen regarding the next one. They seem to be forgetting that the next RI will leave the shares even more heavily diluted than they were before.

The good news is that IAG’s survival prospects still seem positive. The bad news is that it is hard to see the company being in a position to pay a decent dividend until near the end of this decade. Even those with a long-term outlook may now be struggling to see IAG as investable.

"Who bought before the Covid crash", I should have said.

For those of us who bought and held MRO right through the Covid crash, the bounce back is excellent news and a testament to the skill and professionalism of the management team. I'm certainly not going to beef about their chosen method of divi payment.

Well, if they come along and offer a 20-40% premium on TW, they can have mine. I have held here for three years and made almost nothing, (even after re-investing the divi). I think it's a great company, but the shares are lousy.

As a 'recovery share' NEX has turned out to be a bit of a $hit show. Very unfairly, it has been lumped together with other travel shares, many of which have good reason still to be falling (e.g. airlines). I think it will bounce back within a year. Best just look away for now (or buy, if you haven't already).

These are supposed to be good times for HBs, and yet, the TW sp still seems incapable of maintaining any sustained lift. I think the market are so used to seeing this fall on any rally that they just sell now - and it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

SP hit a new ATH today - 886p.