Member Info for RogueRiver

"City chatter has it that, with its bombed-out share price, Vodafone will attract a bidder. The arrival of French billionaire dealmaker Patrick Drahi as a shareholder at BT has added fuel to the gossip, and bankers say plenty of private equity firms have been sniffing. It would be a hefty deal — Vodafone’s shares are worth £30 billion and its debt is €40 billion — but private equity funds have monstrously huge war chests."

If nothing else, continuing takeover speculation ought to prevent VOD from bombing any lower. Anyone buying at current levels is looking at a very decent premium, in the event of a takeover.

Another RI means more dilution. Leisure travel will probably return to normal next year, but business travel may never do so, as companies come under greater pressure to reduce their carbon footprint. Even if all goes well from here, it may be toward the end of the decade before IAG shareholders see pre-pandemic dividend levels again. IAG is still a very good company, but there are less risky shares out there in the travel sector. National Express, for example, seems like better value at the moment.

grq

Thanks. I have taken up the offer (via HL). On those terms, it is even better than a dividend reinvestment transaction, which makes the 132 open offer price very attractive. Your other reasoning makes good sense too. Good luck to you (and all).

After their daft knee-jerk response yesterday, it seems the IIs did some bedtime reading last night.

An absolute stonker, with a post-170 finish. Onwards and upwards (hopefully).

Not a great day, but, to be positive, not as bad as last time. The volumes are good and people are buying the dips, which they were not during the previous slide.

Clearly, TW's true value is unappreciated by the City. The best thing that could happen would be for a foreign PE buyer to take them over. The SP would rocket and, if a deal went through, we would end up with a 25-40% premium on the sp.

Now that I've got that off my chest, I'll shut up until the next update.

grq

Thanks for that. With low volume trades (as this raise would be for me) the trading fee can make quite a difference, so I might well take up the open offer.

Hope we aren't seeing the usual spike on good news, then the steady slide back to square one, although experience suggests...

Given that I opened my position here at 128p four months ago, I'm not sure I want to pay 132 now, especially given the wild fluctuations in the NAV. I'll give it some though, but I remain to be convinced.

Good points. Buybacks seem to be the trend for much of the Footsie these days, so maybe TW will follow suit. Perhaps a combination of a progressive divi, plus buybacks would do the trick. I don't care what they do, as long as it improves the sp.

Hi denby69. It still might, but only briefly. Even with the CCP propping up Evergrande (they really don't want property buyers and investors rioting in the streets), foreign investors may have to take a haircut, but it's peanuts in the grand scheme of things. We have been reading about the 'imminent' collapse of the Chinese economy for the past 20 years and yet their economy has continued to grow. It is in no one's interests to see the Chinese economy collapse, least of all the Chinese government, which has far more levers to pull than Western governments do. The Chinese property boom has definitely hit a crisis point, but the situation is containable.

I hope you are right. The special divi was the only silver lining to the cloud that is the TW sp. As a holder for 3 years, who has reinvested all of the dividends, I'm still down on my original investment. Great company, but the shares seem to suffer from a complete lack of enthusiasm in the market, even in the good times for HBs.

A few months ago, I read some analysis that said the price of gold would likely rise toward Christmas, owing to inflationary pressure - which is why I opened a position here (once the price was right). Whisper it, but Christmas may have come early and we could be seeing the end of the decline in gold prices of the past twelve months.

Because the Chinese government cares primarily about appearances, they will silently provide the funds to keep Evergrande afloat until it can be broken up. Just don't call it a bailout.

The sp is probably going nowhere until they start splashing out the special divi again. It was a big part of what kept the sp reasonably buoyant.

In the run up to the split, I think we will be in the £18-20 range. Thereafter, the shares, in both entities, will probably be all over the place for a while. If you take some profit at £18 (prior to the split) then obviously you are going to miss out on some of the shares in the the spun-off entity. Traditionally with demergers, the original company tends to hold its value well, while the spun-off entity gains 20% within three years. There are so many variables at play here that I am just going to keep holding for the long-term.

To some extent, but the industrial use of gold is likely to keep rising, given its tech applications. Around 10% of gold is used for industrial applications, 10% is held by central banks, 40% is used to make jewellery and the remainining 40% is held as investments. A balanced portfolio ought to be invested in gold and copper.

That '3.8p' gets paid twice per year (interim and final).

Better get used to it. The traders are probably back in greater numbers. Still, it keeps the volumes up.