Member Info for risehall1

Shorters playing games. They have picked their time well due to weakness in the markets. Lets hope they get squeezed til their eyeballs pop out.

...follow the money...

I am surprised at the market reaction. What is not to like? It is an important milestone. From this the company can look at financing itself and if it is to be taken over the majors now have an idea of value plus they know there are several more projects in the pipeline.

The share price has been steady for a while, and that is usually the point at which fireworks start. Rio are desperate to find copper and have allocated over half their exploration budget to it. Both copper and gold discoveries are in demand. Solgold is a target, they have a tier 1 project and more in the pipeline. At somepoint I reckon one of the majors will make a move, both Rio and BHP have plenty of cash at the moment. This is just a waiting game as ever.

I really struggle to grasp why the National Park made Sirius construct a tunnel in the first place. It is a very costly and complex thing to do over that distance. A railway would have made more sense, and the National Park already has railways over the Moors and to Whitby. The lack of much support either locally from the National Park or nationally from the government through funding is pretty pathetic. Happy so send money to the EU, happy to spend billions on foreign aid, happy to subsidise free bus travel, prescriptions and higher education but won’t support our own industry in the North East!!

I didn’t expect Newcrest would say much but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t much happening. Newcrest have a large spending commitment but they also desperately need higher grade ore feed for Telfer. If they want that ore for Telfer, they will have to expedite their plans, they are running out of ore and won’t want to mothball the plant, it is very expensive to recommission. Just have to be patient I suppose. Weather is still very hot in that area as well, but cooling.

Will say very little at this stage about Havieron because it is just one of many projects from their point of view and will have no impact on their share price at this stage. They say little about Solgold, which is a much bigger commitment. It is also not in their interests to talk up Greatland which they will seek to acquire as cheaply as possible if the drilling goes well. Given the lacklustre share price performance since the Newcrest JV was announced, I am beginning to think GGP would have been better off seeking funding of $5 million on the open market. That might have led to a temporary reduction in share price, but GGP would then have kept control and retained 100% of the upside. Perhaps the market is now starting to factor in the risk that GGP will need to fundraise in the not too distant future - that is the only reason I can think for the current weakness in share price, it should be rising on expectation of the coming drill programme.

If you look back at the share price performance over the last year or two, it may well be that some in the know knew this would happen. That was certainly the case with both Carillion and Interserve. The very high dividend makes it look attractive but the buyers are mainly small investors oblivious to the risk. I think this may fall further and I wont buy without some idea how bad the problems are. For those thinking of buying or holding, keep an eye on institutional investor’s holdings. If they start offloading SP will drop like a stone.

Trouble is that big companies seem to be able to hide things on their books and management often cover their mistakes. A culture of secrecy tends to go hand in hand with incompetent management. First sign of problems is a profit warning, then talk of restructuring, then refinancing, then the scale of the problems becomes really apparent what follows is either collapse or slow recovery. As private investors, we are always last to know. The City spivs and market makers will do well whatever on refinancing.

Housebuilding is very profitable but highly cyclical. If the tide turns, things will turn very nasty, very quickly. Remember the last recession? I do, Taylor Wimpey and Barratts were on the ropes, in fact one point the govt were talking about bailing them out.

After what happened with Interserve and Carillion, I am afraid this is a sell for me. Trust in management is everything and companies seem to be able to hide their true financial position for so long until the point that they are really in the Brown sticky stuff and it is the small private investors that get really shafted.

There has to be one pending on Paterson not least because there is now a spending commitment from Newcrest. Temperature forecast for Telfer is getting down to 30 degrees c at the weekend so cooling and moving into drilling season.

Lets hope the train is about to leave the station and the days of sub 2p are over.

Its the shallow stuff im really interested in. If they hit mineralisation early on news may come here far earlier than some may realise. They have portable xrf analysers so should have some idea what the cores are like.

The plans for drilling of course at Havieron and the other shallow Paterson targets. Lets get this gold rush started, only five days to drilling month starts, time to party!!!!!

On the face of it, this looks bad if you are a long term holder, but if iclaprim does get approval there is still fantastic upside here. At least the company wont fail to get to the approval meeting now and appears to have support from major investors, if they are prepared to put up £2.7m they must think the chances of approval are good.

It does not matter what price any placing is, what matters is that Motif have sufficient funding to get them to a decision. Without such funding, Motif may collapse. There are still large institutional investors in Motif which is good because they won’t want Motif to fail. Of course, there is also the possibility of a takeover or joint venture rather than a placing. As has been said previously on this board, the ability to raise further funding or attract a partner may be the best indicator of success at the FDA meeting.

Nice spike, unless you get impaled on it. There is at least a couple of months before the outcome of the FDA meeting will be known.

It reminds me of the dreadful way Gordon Brown sold off the BoE gold reserves. Panic sell at the bottom of the market and depress prices further by telling everyone you are selling in advance... at least we will get to know when they are cleared.

I must say when I read through the FDA website and their guidance it is very important that the documents are drafted carefully and that you have the right experts present at the meeting. Having been wrongfooted once, if I were them I would have assembled a panel of experts and advisors and checked and doubled checked all the paperwork before submitting it. Better safe than sorry, so if it took a few days later to get the papers in order I wouldn’t complain.