Member Info for Ridgeld

Every stock I own seams to do this, great results with a sharp drop on open. Tends to recover very quickly though.

Keep zooming out, have a look and tell us what the 2 year numbers are?

My 2 year old nephew has more patience than some of you lot! "The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting". If you want instant gratification, there's a 2:45 race at Hereford.

Assuming you're talking about Abara. We have the licences in hand, it's a just part of the license that we have to tell the local councils whats going on. This was done but the council claimed it wasn't a 'formal consultation'. It's the equivalent of one parish council in the UK kicking up a fuss to delay things a little bit so they feel important and the company is being accommodating because they are in no rush given the focus is currently on Dupax.

Nothing Specific to the mine, but have seen reports of landslides in the wider region and 3 kids sadly died. Last posts on the FCF minerals pages were typhoon warnings on Sunday morning (GMT).

Based on what I've seen it looks to be passing right over the mine over the next 24 hours. I would be surprised if there wasn't some effect / lost time based on the severity of the storm.

There has been a hold up with one of the permits. It's just a technicality about official or non official consultation. From the September update.

"Drill programmes remain on hold while the National Commission for Indigenous Peoples ('NCIP') further advances its consultation activities with the potentially impacted local communities. The Company expectation remains that drilling in the Abra project area will commence in H1 2026."

I have spoken to my GPT about metals and the gold price and Nicaragua before and it does have a memory so my results may be skewed by that. You can 'train' it to be better. Previously I had told it to look specifically into Dupax and explained that dilution risk was low due to FCF and the backup of borrowing from Drachs again. It's one of those tools that the more you use it the better it gets. What it's really useful for is translating RNSs into plain English and explaining things simply. It's like having an assistant that you cant trust to do things by themselves but will get you 80% of the way there.

It's quite fun to play with, but it does get things wrong so you have to fact check it. You can correct it and provide sources and it will look them up and change its opinion. You can also trick it into giving false information. It's good as an aggregator though, for example you can ask "give me a brief overview of the political situation in Nicaragua with a view to my investment in a gold mine in the county. We know that the government Is currently in favour, they have given all permits required " and it says

" Political overview – Nicaragua (2025)

The Ortega–Murillo administration maintains firm control over all branches of government. Elections are neither competitive nor transparent, and opposition activity is heavily restricted. This has created a politically stable but authoritarian environment — predictable in the short term, though not necessarily reliable in the rule-of-law sense.

Implications for mining investors

• Government stance: The regime views gold mining as a strategic export sector and major source of foreign currency. Several recent projects have been fast-tracked or supported at ministerial level, and the sector continues to grow despite U.S. sanctions on some individual entities.

• Permitting security: If your project has full permits and government backing, near-term operational risk is relatively low. Local officials tend to protect state-aligned ventures, and enforcement of permits is consistent when the project supports national revenue goals.

• Regulatory risk: Laws and concessions can be changed without independent judicial challenge. Investors should keep relationships active with central authorities, monitor policy updates, and maintain compliance visibility.

• Financial controls: Currency exchange and profit repatriation are currently allowed, but U.S. sanctions and banking restrictions can complicate cross-border transfers. Structuring through neutral financial jurisdictions is common practice.

• Community & ESG factors: The main on-the-ground risk is social, not political — community or environmental opposition can delay operations even if the state remains supportive.

Summary:

The government’s current support makes Nicaragua one of the more favourable jurisdictions in Central America for permitted gold mining, provided operations remain aligned with state interests and ESG obligations are managed carefully. The political climate is stable but autocratic; contracts are honoured so long as projects continue to serve government and economic priorities."

You can ask it to do whatever you want and it will search and analyse the results. For example you can say "act as an experienced stock trader drawing information from the past 100 years of investment knowledge. Using current global economic trends and forecasting to analyse the potential stock price of MTL.L. Use company RNS data as well as other publicly available information from sources such as director interviews to give a prediction of where you see the price in 1 2 and 5 years time. summarise your answer in 2000 characters" and it will spit out "MTL.L (Metals Exploration plc) – Outlook Summary

Current price: ~12.8p | Mkt Cap: ~£375m | Shares: ~2.9bn

Operations: Runruno gold mine (Philippines, cash-positive) + La India (Nicaragua, development).

H1 2025 FCF: US$70.7m. Q2 record output; Q3 had a processing pause. Company is debt-free.

Gold trading near US$3,900–4,000/oz with bullish forecasts up to US$4,600–5,000/oz.

Key Drivers

• Gold price remains the biggest factor.

• Runruno reliability and cash generation.

• La India construction timing and funding (internal cash vs equity dilution).

• Market rerating potential as MTL shifts from single- to dual-asset producer.

Price Scenarios

1 Year:

• Bear 6-11p

• Base 14-24p (mid ~19p)

• Bull 28-45p

2 Years:

• Bear 5-12p

• Base 22-38p (mid ~30p)

• Bull 45-90p

5 Years:

• Bear 4-12p

• Base 35-80p (mid ~58p)

• Bull 90-220p

Base case: Runruno sustains strong FCF, La India progresses with limited dilution, gold steady-high.

Bull case: Gold >US$4,500/oz, both mines producing, market re-rates toward mid-tier multiples.

Bear case: Operational or financing setbacks, dilution, weaker gold.

Risks: Operations, permits/politics (Philippines/Nicaragua), dilution, gold volatility.

Take:

Short-term traders – watch RNS for production or funding news.

Long-term holders – strong upside if La India funded from internal cashflow and gold stays firm.

Current level still looks attractive versus potential multi-asset future."

To bolster their share price by getting crypntobros to buy in. There is no way in hell MTL do this, they have no need to.

Another article published today. https://www.manilatimes.net/2025/10/24/regions/gambito-calls-for-sobriety-amid-mining-controversy/2206937

Interesting, so the protestors may have delayed the drilling by barricading the road between the 6th & 14th of October before the restraining order was put in place.

I often ask myself the same question. Nicaragua is actually pretty stable politically and the regime's grip on power is pretty solid, we don't like dictators in the west but the company is clearly in favour with the regime at the moment so no issues there. Trump seams to be going after the narcos pretty hard in South America and Nic doesn't have that problem which is good, wouldn't be surprised if they got caught in the crossfire in some way though but we don't need to sell the gold to the US so that's not too much of an issue.

Cashflow wise, risk is negligible as worst case scenario we borrow some cash from Drachs on favourable terms. Other than a complete black swan event the only other risk I can see is something happening to DB, he looks to be in great shape for a man in his mid 50s though! Even then, the hard work to get La India up and running is already done, it's just a case of implementation.

As Carl Richards put it, "Risk is what's left over after you think you've thought of everything".

Being afraid to look at your investments current value is a sure fire sign that this isn't the right risk profile for you. And that's completely ok. This is just a minor pull back, we've seen it three or four times since the price got ahead of itself in July. Nothing goes up in a straight line and nothing is guaranteed, chill out and accept that volatility is a part of the game.

I agree, but MTL is not cheaper than it was 6 months ago, the price has risen 73% since then. Better value perhaps but not cheaper.

Perhaps if someone cracks alchemy there would be reason for concern. But MTL would be profitable to the tune of hundreds of millions even if the gold price halved. Im really not concerned with the day to day movements, I'm concerned about the movement of travel over 3, 5 and 10 years.

Because the gold price today has very little effect on the long term value of the company.

Yup, just bagged a few more at 12.56 in the SIPP. Just a shame I cant access it for 30 odd years!!

Anybody know how many existing warrants are out there?