Member Info for Ridgeld

We do get pretty frequent updates though, thats all we need. We don't need every single little detail or a flashy press releases every single week. I get that people here are on different timelines but it really is just about patience here.

We’re a mining company not a PR company. The mines getting built, ahead of schedule and on budget. I’d much rather poor comms and good mine building than the other way around.

He (crux chap) was doing a few other interviews that day too, notice the Serabi one moved from the 2nd to the 4th as well so it may well be the interviewer who rearranged rather than some issue or opportunity for Darren to deal with.

The interview is today. May not be posted for a couple of days, or it could be posted straight away, depends on how long they need to edit it. You can watch it on YouTube or here. https://www.cruxinvestor.com/videos

Its an RNS, he's hardly going to say I'm buzzing my tits off and we're gunna be loaded in a mater of months. 'Optimistic' is about as good as it gets in the formal statements.

Take a breath and read what the RNS actually says about Dupax. They aren’t saying the gold isn’t there. Just that its a lot deeper than first expected based on the very limited trial holes they have done so far. We know the first cores ‘missed the main body’ and we know that they have ran into issues with protests and the super typhoon.

All this means is that they aren’t able to seamlessly switch from runruno ore to dupax ore. There’s obviously a lot of employees that they were hoping to retain and the delays and early indications mean that is unlikely.

The gold may well still be there, just its going to take longer to get to than runruno has left. Or it may not be there, time will tell.

Nowhere does it say Dupax is a dud, just drilling to date hadn’t defined an economic resource in time to support extending Runruno’s processing operations. But we know they have barely done any drilling. Seams like a timing issue and DB has another plan for the Runruno plant in the meantime.

Truered, 100%. Im very much in the younger cohort (33) and am in no rush whatsoever. My main concern is DB retiring in a few years! It would be interesting to see what the age demographics of the frequent posters here are as it does definitely frame opinions.

Agree, there is no need to join until La India and Dupax / Abara are up and running.

Type Daren Bowden Crux interview into YouTube. Latest interview is a few months old now but there’s a lot of good information there.

I ended up invested here after the Galiford Try deal a few years back. Since then my Gfrd investment is up about 350%. Vistry is down over the same timeframe…

I uploaded the presentation to GPT and asked what it thought the share price of the company should be, just for fun really. Here's what it said. Basically we're cheap AF.

Key inputs I used

• MTL market capitalisation (presentation): £337m (as at 24 Nov 2025). 

• La India NPV (6%): US$882m (presentation). 

• Runruno FY2024 free cashflow: US$96.7m (presentation). 

• Shares outstanding (market data): ~2.93 billion shares. (summary from market pages / exchange quotes). 

• USD → GBP rate used: 1 USD = £0.7629 (close 24 Nov 2025). 

Using those figures I made straightforward conversions and per-share arithmetic. (If you want I can re-run with a different FX or share-count source — say 2.93b vs 2.98b — and it will move the pence figure a little.)

⸻

1) Market-implied today (what the market is paying now)

Market cap £337m / 2.928bn shares = £0.115 / share = 11.5 pence per share.

(So the presentation’s market cap is broadly consistent with an ~11–12p share price).

2) Simple sum-of-parts (illustrative gross intrinsic)

Take the La India NPV (US$882m → £673m) plus the Runruno FY2024 free cashflow (US$96.7m → £74m) and sum = ~£748m. Divide by 2.928bn shares → ~£0.255 / share = 25.5 pence.

This is a very crude “add the NPV + last year’s cashflow” approach (it does not account for overlap, capex to get La India into production, corporate costs, dilution, tax, timing or probability of delivery).

3) Risked / conservative case (account for execution risk)

If you apply a 30% haircut to La India (to reflect execution / permitting / timing / commodity price risk) and then add Runruno cashflow:

0.7×£673m + £74m ≈ £545m → per share ≈ 18.6 pence.

That gives a more realistic mid-range number if you want to recognise the project but penalise delivery risk.

⸻

Quick summary / takeaway

• Current market price implied by the presentation figures: ~11.5p.

• Simple (optimistic / arithmetic) intrinsic: ~25.5p (sum-of-parts, no discounting beyond NPV).

• Risked / pragmatic intrinsic: ~18.6p (La India haircut 30% + Runruno cashflow).

I doubt they have any drill results from Dupax yet. We know that drilling was delayed by the protests and then the drill pads were damaged by the super typhoon. We also know that the company have been helping out with repairing roads and bridges and the clear up by lending heavy machinery that would likely be needed to reinstate the damaged drill pads and probably clear access back to the sites. Photos of them helping out and damage to local infrastructure on the FCF minerals FB page. https://www.facebook.com/fcfmineralscorporation

Is it even possible to forward sell when Runruno has such a short mine life left and La India isn't yet producing? Either way, I don't think it's necessary.

Lee, Sounds like I was in a similar situation to your friend. I transferred from a Vanguard SIPP to a provider that would let me buy MTL. Took about 8 weeks to complete and by that time the share price had almost doubled. Shows that when it moves it can move fast. I cant access my SIPP for another 25 odd years so not worried about it at all. Will hopefully be irrelevant by then!

Guessing you mean it's 19.9 I'm NOT selling!!

I started my own SIPP transfer at 8p and it was 15p by the time I finally got it in! Not worried in the slightest though.

I thought DB said in his Crux interview that “it looks like we missed the main ore body” but like I said, this is just from memory. I’ll give the video another watch later and report back!

What we know about the Dupax drilling. This is all from memory so feel free to fact check!

- Permits granted in August 2025

- Drilling underway in October

- 5Km access road built

- Q3 update mentioned an additional IP survey and that the first two holes missed the main ore body

- Local protesters barricaded the access roads causing delays but the courts sided with the company

- Typhoon has caused damage to the drill pads and some of the machinery is currently being utilised to help with the cleanup of the local area.

It's obviously not good news if you care about the share price in the immediate term or are emotionally attached to paper gains. But let's be honest, It's entirely irrelevant in the long term. A few weeks delay is nothing. The sell off today is global, we'd likely be down this much without the RNS.

im an architect by profession, so deal with the 'front line' of the building industry daily. the quality of tradesperson coming into the country has massively declined in the last 10 years. back when we had sites full of the polish it was great, they were highly skilled, hard working and cheap. the guys on site now cant hold a candle to them, some are down right dangerous (not on the big sites because they dont last, but on small scale stuff). brexit ****ed the housebuilders hard.