RE: ICC1 updated 20 January23 Jan 2025 12:00
Guys. The first case was easier in my view. Produced and sold oil, without payment. Not that difficult. The other claims have estimations and expectations involved, cannot be determine so precisely, even if you have the most respetful experts atbitrators view or estimations or applied math may differ.
It is not lottery of course, but in many cases arbitrators rule differently then would be expected (they have in many cases minority opinion - which shows not always is a matter of black or white). Risk of opposite ruling is never zero. There may be annulment request, from the company also, but it takes time and not sure. (Read GBU - request, and will understand there may really be flaws on the process (in their case there was I think) but you have no certainty to have justice.
After a beneficial ruling there is the annulment req from the state (greenx vs Poland, even when the arbitrstors were really well respected highly professonal " institution" people.)
Can drag the final for much longer.
And, not a few million , but hundreds of millions are not that easy (time, legal costs, etc) to " grab" from sovereigns assets abroad. It is really not that easy as many says here.
Maintain: reaching a settlement with 30-50 % of total claims would be more than ecellent.