Member Info for RIDER75

Decade long dispute.

Yes, and many come across these stories at latet stages most cases without positions from earlier and just read how big movements happened (actually on fresh news).

International arbitrations itself take 2-3 years min to conclude (without early setttlement) from the first intention to sue, and naturaly before that there is a huge process from the very first act of breach of laws, treaties. If you consider this, we are at the end game... -)

SC there isnt any ironic to trade below claim value before trials, and decision.

5-10 % is total usual.

Even after court rulings we wont trade at level corresponds to the actual award.

Maybe after payments done, but probably there will also be some discount (due to taxation, and uncertainty with payouts, extent of spec dividend, etc).

My guess is we may reach around 10 %, thus double from here, and only after early settlement or decision by the court will we reach close to claim or award, or early settlement level (which we dont know). Thus a nice doubling what I expect in the next month or so from here .

With different courts its obvious then

There must be something significant in the background, although we are just above 5 % mc/claim , daily 1.2 m usd volume is not tiny at all.

I doubt that the two separate case can be handled in one.

Before final hearing preparations take much time.

Eaely settlent thats what we need

I dont want to make ton weight decision just before the ruling .

Few from GBU likes those decision points.

Simple plain math.

And a reference us, many here, in Zenith, ms vs total claim has just exceeded 5 % (even with significamt debt, also wit potential early.settlement and or imminent heerings).

This 5 % is my key.

Hi Michu!

In volume terms here, best case would be Zenith deal concluding somewhere in the next few months, and then many of those zhere will seek similar potentials elsewhere.

Considering the potential end game sum amd profits there, it could be a significant flow towards here then. If I calvulate correctly daily volume there is getting to reach 1m usd (in Oslo ij NOK)

Excellent for PAT also.

That would be more than the full award....

Ok, till now, I tried to balance others extremely positive views.

On fact, until final ruling expexted in summer, there is not any risk here, only opportunity and potential.

And, I wouldnt be surprised that those, in each party, in the know, may accumulate slowly but steadily.

Good luck!

Oh no, just thats my weak part, eyes, on my small smart phone.

I trust those interesting researches , which shows even without vowels, only consonants, and mixed mistyping, the readers brain automaically recognizes the words.

:-)

sorry

Unless there is a binary risk of losing one or both arbitration...and there isN as always... and as eben with an early settlement you cannot be 100 % sure that you will be payed (egz Sundance Resources in Congo ( bacled by BUR)... so thats why you wont see an sp anywhere near the claim.or potentoal settlement level in advance. Neither gradually nor suddenly. But on the very day solid info comes out, the jump will.be sensational and legendary. And even agzer that there will be some decent remaining discount , which could be erased after real payment done and the cass is fully settled and concluded. (Even there mihht be some uncertaimty with taxatiom etc, but that is the most pleasant part, and phase. In think.

ETM worth a punt, altough smal volume, and volatile price, MC vs Claim is well under 1 % even as it has two-three folded already.

Can be bought in Australia in aud, in US in USD but also in Ftankfurt for EUR. Besides BUR I had try directly into their fimanced cases, such as ETM.

Similarly, besides LCM, their financed and succesful Greenc vs Poland case (where waiting for a really extremely low chance annulment decision provably due in a few month, but certainly this year.

And another LCM funded and Fasken deslt one, the mother of all my litigation position, PAT, Panthera Resources, which is at the best stage for star investing (making out bets), against India, 20m usd market cap vs probably 780m-2bn usd claim. SOC is due within max 2-3 month.

So besides litigation financiers at may well worth a look into their seemingly best cases (regarding relative terms, or possible risks, or actual phases, or clear timeframe) directly.

This may be an aspect from sa sstate perspective.

Example is Argentina, YPF vase and Burford Capital. They will finally agree on a lets say 50 % haircut on the (all time record ruling against a foreign sovereign state in a US court ) 16bn USD award. Altough appeal is in its way, and even politically its worth doing that even if they will surely lose it, and the financial strenght of Arg economy amd state had to evolve and improve, etc but beside all considerations, financing Arg with bonds are, were far much expensive compared to intrrests on the award ruled. Its not the case here, I think.

:-)

No way its an angle for consideration that a few percent.may be reached by eur bonds.... what sort of shareholder is who agree with taking another kind of risks for high yield lower inv grade bonds with their money...

The range of a potential final payout or early settlement is several tens of percemts. Who cares with the interests rate differentials between postponed payment levied by the court or on early payment getting from the bank.

Weghing these aspects, the very fact of even payment, and as early as possible, and avoiding or evading any risks involved in the whole legal process cannot even be compared.

Technical question: Is it possible that after posting we make any corrections on the text here in LSE (similarly to Ceo.ca?) Thanks

Https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/copper-price-forecast-top-trends-copper-2025

Got on NAK/NDM board, from beginning of the year.

True it is about mainly copper, amd a few mega project that may get greenlight easier (in not one case after decades long struggle - HBM which is solid company already and esp. NAK/NDM is mentioned, latter is a highly speculative project stock, with a grandiozi potential) but what relates here is the potemtial tariffs on imports (to help mining development).

I somehow doubt how that can workas it may have effect on competitiveness (not mining forms but indistries based on egz copper), maybe tariffs on other godds may offset that somehow.

With tariffs, if significants, forced intetrsts rate lowering, ineviteably means higher inflation and meaningfully weaker dollar. Plus potential rotation out of absolutely and relatovely overpriced IS stock market...

Sorry for the many grammatical and typing mistakes.

Thats my trademark on a smartphone in hurry.

I couldnt hide behind more username, even if I wamted. After my third mistype would be exposed. :-)

Cyberbub, honestly.I cannot remember. I follow too many stories nowadays and all of them on the fire, and read awful.lot, many times I cannot find my original source. I may be the son of luck in these investments, but I do a lot of "work" into gathering info and planimg my strategy.

So not just I cant remember, but unfortunately I didnt initiate my initial buying, even though I planned I got the opportunity again more than once. I read somewhere on this small nuclear reactor development, on other connetcted investments of the founder/or CEO, their political comnections, maybe soms hiring of great lobbyists to the company.

From I follow it doubled (last time maybe in a week... but its 5-10 folded lomger term. My method is pulling out of my initial capital, and let it go wherever it can, statistically and longer time zhat works for me (more step forward only few steps back.)Rarely have I average up, only with strong momentum that may be regard as possibly a lasting one, as it was the case with NAK/NDM after Trump win. And will be with another great arbitration after some huge milestone, as the expectes move could be sognifocant on news.

OKLO may rise to anywhere, but I am cautious as it is really volatile and I cannot estimate any fair value. Maybe only a strong hype lifited that up. Br.

SC dont need to convince me. I have a little larger pos here (also) than you.

The math of a claim sum is not like 2 + 2. If you ever appreised the valule for egz a company, you would know moving a few parameter a bit may have great effect on the fair value (range).

That said you are half right, for any small retailer its more than enouhh to have these experts documentes view in their back. At the same time I dont think enhancing and imporving amd wider your or anybodys knowledge, plainly LEARNING, can be a waste of time.

Especially if you invest (bet) with meaningful sum, and not just playing with pocket money . And if in paralel as a portfolio, or after Zenith someine has the intention to look after other similar cases (even if you plan to retire just after Zenith succesful payment. :-)

Thanks to Gallmat from (among others ) PAT board for the link.

For educational purposes.

https://brill.com/view/journals/jwit/24/1/article-p115_4.xml?language=en