RE: Trading Observations20 Feb 2020 08:56
Disagree on the timings.
1) There is literally nothing to stop them announcing a deal in 2 minutes time for LOXL2 (it's impossible to judge that and a potential partner could offer a deal at any moment - stealing a march on interested rivals - fact is it's well overdue already)
3) Trial results for SNG001, the main thing, could be considerably earlier (based on the fact the April estimate would have been based on a flu season which is typically two months later than actually happened). Bring that estimate forward two months and it's February (ie now). Personally I'd bet they already know the outcome, largely speaking, and it's been around a month and a half since the flu levels returned to normal. For all we know they've nearly finished sifting/processing the data for release (or doing deals based upon it). Again hard to tell without being made an insider. I wouldn't be surprised if the background origin of the buying is coming from those who know the gist of the results.
Points 4/5.........this is AIM. The rules regarding disclosure are ignored left right and centre with no punishment (or weaselled around). I've seen TR-1 disclosure notifications where about 10 different thresholds were crossed in one go once finally released. The market makers need these pullbacks, they HAVE to make a market, and think how many shares they've sold on the way up......they NEED people to see a falling market and sell them some shares. Otherwise they've got nothing to sell to buyers and they can't make a market. Right now they'll be desperate to restock their coffers.
As for the major holders - I imagine nothing has changed. They've only ever increased their holdings and a recovery in price is irrelevant. It's still well below their last purchase price in the placing. They'll have been investing for the real value creation event(s) which could now come at any moment (SNG001/LOXL2 results/deals) and quite possibly with a takeover in mind as the end game (that's still got to be a very real possibility here - and would also not be surprised if that ends up being the result here - if someone offered 50p/share here - it'd be peanuts to big pharma and far cheaper than a deal for SNG001 might end up after all the milestones - with the LOXL2 interest proceeds as a bonus).
That's the thing, if I was short-term trading this, I'd have sold out for 17p+ on the spike, as I'm sure a small few did (and then a further few following that, leading to the quick pullback). However, as I wish to be in for the results of LOXL2 or SNG001, where the big money will be made, my incentive to do so is low, as I know there could now be news on either of them at any moment. Predicting when is going to be a mugs game! (it's simply possible at any point from now onwards)