Member Info for RichTheNewbie

Last trade in normal hours finishes the day with a big buy of 50k at 20p (on top of all the other buys at/around 20p).
Appetite for the stock appears to be increasing not decreasing.

I think one of the long-term investors on another board summed it up very nicely:
"Make no mistake these are pivotal trial results and represent somewhere near the beginning of the end game for the company since it was floated almost 15 years ago"

I maintain that most people haven't realised quite how big what SNG have could be. As someone also pointed out elsewhere it's worth re-reading this section of a previous RNS:

"OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN INHALED BROAD SPECTRUM ANTIVIRAL

Beyond COPD, we recognise that inhaled IFN-beta could help many other different patient types who succumb to these common, and usually benign, respiratory viral infections. Such patient groups include:

-- Acute admissions due to respiratory viral infections. Vulnerable groups include: diabetic patients, the elderly, and patients with other lung conditions e.g. cystic fibrosis, bronchiectasis;

-- Paediatric patients with severe breathing difficulties/wheeze e.g. bronchiolitis, as well as premature infants with persistent viral infection;

-- Some immunocompromised patient populations undergoing oncology treatment regimens who can have difficulty clearing respiratory viral infections; and

-- Some rarer genetic conditions where patients fail to mount an adequate antiviral response may also derive benefit from inhaled IFN-beta.

We are currently engaging with the different clinical teams across the UK who focus on these different patient groups to assess the clinical problem caused by viruses and to map a route into the clinic. All of these indications, including the niche ones, are of great interest to potential pharmaceutical partners"

If this trial confirms the efficacy of the treatment....what's a more sensible MCAP for that? £20m or £200m?

19p to buy now. Up we go.

In their defence....they do have to make a market ;)
Their job is just that bit easier, when people trade based heavily upon the trade feed and/or charts....as they can essentially get most people on these micro-caps to buy or sell, at their whim, because the price is within their control.

They're being properly tricky trying to fool people into selling.
Opens up this morning and you see three trades, all for 16.20p, in what appear to be a trio of 25k sells in the morning.....
Except if you look at the times and dates (the date isn't shown on most sites apart from here) they're actually from yesterday morning and two of the three are flagged as cancelled.

I think this sharp rise, and continued buying, has royally screwed the market makers and they're still severely lacking shares.

There ya go, one drops in now, for 175k.

They move it up and generate a good batch of selling without altering the price.
Almost certainly has to be large buy orders in the background they're trying to fill.

Should be very good for a nice run now.
There's been a lot of churn around the 16-17p mark and we must have exhausted all the potential sellers again so now moving up.

Will you stop trying to jinx things!

Coming back to the FTSE.....I reckon there's a good chance of a bit more pain yet as I expect the current corona fuss to drag on for a little while yet (even if it is essentially contained relatively well in the end).

Maybe.
As I say, I understand the viewpoint the US market in particular is well overcooked (and agree)...... however companies/governments/markets/banks etc have a remarkable habit of perpetuating the bubbles. There are more agendas that align with keeping them propped up than crashing.
So whilst you could take it as a warning for a bigger crash.....there's every chance that crash is avoided, again, through more fudging/diddling/whatever-you-want-to-call it.
One of the best financial quotes was from old Mr Keynes......"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

10% in less than a week is a crash by most definitions. It might not be the worst ever but it is what it is.
Going to be bargains galore if the virus ends up being reasonably contained in the end (as all previous ones were). At the moment it's too hard to know which way it'll go.

I'd have shorted it a long time ago.....if the problem was it wasn't going to keep rising and rising because of these actions.

Which makes it hard to short, without being prepared to be significantly underwater for potentially a long long period of time, before it all came tumbling down. Thus, it doesn't suffer from the corrective pressure of shorting, as that's a risk not many would take.

It's not quite as "BS" as the yank market (and often people mistake a rising FTSE for UK strength - when it's often actually the opposite - due to earnings from abroad).
But yeah, the americans have been inflating their markets via the fed, on top of companies further artificially inflating things with buybacks based on cheap debt, also from a suppressed interest rate via the fed.
I'd say it is/was an accident waiting to happen.....but that would imply it's unintentional.....which it isn't.

It has risen a little bit today (buying back up to 16.41p).

However, you've got to remember, that in these market crashes (which this is now - over 10% lost from the FTSE in a week), often almost everything gets hit, regardless of the potential direct impact on the stock in question.

Staying level (or in rare cases, with good news, rising) is a sign of high strength for any company, meaning very few people want to offload, even in the midst of a crash, and there's probably even still good buying, absorbing the buying from the few who are selling (and/or those forced/required to sell, as a result of things like margin calls, due to falls in other shares elsewhere).

Markets should decide they've had enough panic selling before too long, as the virus is concerning (to an extent), but being priced in for quite significant impact levels.

The other thing to factor in, is that a lot of stocks on the main indexes have been being artificially inflated by things like the yanks version of QE, that shall not be called QE. Pro's and amateurs alike knew they just had to buy a bundle of things on those markets being artificially inflated and they'd probably make money regardless of company performance. So many would argue a big drop has been overdue on the main indices and the virus just happens to have given the markets enough of a nudge to start it.

Whilst I'm not a fan of getting over-excited due to coronavirus related applications for SNG*.......for those who ARE more interested in that - this is probably the RNS, from a long time ago, that spells out the potential here in that regard: https://investegate.co.uk/synairgen-plc--sng-/rns/positive-viral-pneumonia-study-results/201111250700217477S/

(* because I'm ultimately much more interested in the fact one of the biggest problems for the NHS, and globally, is the over-prescription of anti-biotics, and proof that inhaled interferon beta works could be a game-changer, that leads to people being tested for viruses, and then being prescribed this anti-viral instead of an antibiotic that will do nothing. Thereby significantly improving the outcome for patients and significantly reducing the use of anti-biotics - which I can't see as being anything other than incredibly appealing to GPs/Doctors/Trusts/NHS/Governments).

Don't see anything new that's of any concern (and ignoring the fact it's for a different condition than SNG are targetting and isn't for inhaled IFN-ß).
Just a flawed study that's rather behind the times and hasn't accounted for corticosteroids ;)
Better data exists from SNG.
(PS no I'm not going to sell any shares to give you a cheaper buy in despite your best efforts :p)

I think the problem is you're making assumptions (wrongly imo).

You're assuming SNG001 results are not out till H2. Not only is that wrong for the published expected conclusion of the trial (which is April). It may be even more wrong as this year's flu spike came two months early and therefore there's every chance the trial could have concluded 2 months earlier (ie this month).

I think it's also wrong to suggest "Synairgen was confident that Pharmaxis would sign a deal in Q4 2019" or were reliant/planning for that. In fact the last placing was explictly done to expand the SNG001 trial and "To provide additional resources to invest in up to two new early stage opportunities which have been identified by the company" and "provide working capital for the company". They've not spent any of that money on new opportunities and should fine.

(worth perhaps not the right word - just to be clear - that's number of shares rather than pounds or pence)

Scratch that. Someone's bought over 400k worth.