Member Info for Rebess

Hi BIGbangs - Ok - yes, fair comment. - I signed into three different threads yesterday two, were Centamin related, the other, an entirely different type of investment. In all three cases there were accusations between posters accusing the other of shorting because of the comments they had posted. It's becoming an everyday theme now to level accusations/insults at fellow posters on the grounds of shorting. I don't get this, how can anyone know that someone is shorting? Is there a site or index that lists all the details, numbers, values etc? What is even more curious is that since a very large percentage lose their money, I'm wondering why so many (supposedly) are engaged in it. BTW you will note that I avoided naming names and that my comments were general rather than specific. Have you accused anyone of shorting in your posting? If so, could you explain how you knew please.

Just a further comment on shorting guys, I hope you don't mind. - I have an account with IG and every time I login I see a message at the base of the sign-in window. As follows:

'Warning, that spread bets and CFD's are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 81% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread-bets and CFD's with this provider'.

Wow 81% lose - so, all the smart-arses we see commenting on these threads presenting as experts, must form the 19% that are the winners. We are so privileged to be able to share their wisdom. :-)

Hi djryan - Firstly, It's not my style to discuss my personal details. - You can trawl through the 3500 odd posts I've made and you'll be hard-pressed to uncover details. However, I'll go some way in making an exception. - The short answer to your question is 'Yes'. I built my position starting in the 30's continued throughout the 40's and 50's and into the low 60's. - The problem I have is the triggering of capital gains, as a consequence, rightly or wrongly I have tended to stay put. The only action I've taken with regards to my holding is that I have converted from nominee holdings to share certificates. I have taken this action on the basis of the value of my investments exceeding brokers insurance value. - That's it dj, that's all yer gonna get. :-) - Good luck by the way. - cheers

It seems that if you dislike or don't agree with a posters comments, it has become a very popular form of insult to refer to him/her as a shorter. - More and more posters are using it in their responses. It was levelled at me yesterday and whilst I don't mind any form of insult, it occurred to me that it is being used with greater frequency these days. Speaking personally, in all the years I've been investing I have never once engaged in shorting activity. Whether anybody believes me doesn't matter, please feel free to disbelieve. - My understanding is that it's not something that you can do at the drop-of-a-hat. It requires planning, arrangement through a broker, the borrowing of shares and so and so on. This level of logistics I would have thought is beyond the scope and botherment of the average investor, so why does everybody think that everybody is shorting? I actually think that posters who accuse are following a current posting- fashion-trend without really understanding what they are saying.

Where do the 'Directors' turn-up for work. - I'm sure it isn't Sukari mine, or is it? Does anybody know? Only, you could be forgiven for thinking that it's not where the action is taking place.

John's post may make for uncomfortable reading, but that doesn't alter the veracity of it's content.

Hi DA SUT - Yes, stockpiled material is a possibility. They could also have carried-forward, on paper, future production, to then adjust when appropriate. In other words, a paper-exercise for whatever purpose. Make no mistake, it happens. And, don't forget that secrecy now on shipments makes it a relatively simple exercise.

Hi Prof - It does make you think doesn't it? - Here's something more intriguing. - The dividend is being paid in May this year, it's usually paid in March, almost two-months late. - Why do you think that is? - What happens if you're two months late paying your mortgage or council tax? - Why was the Annual report delayed by a month? - The intrigue is overwhelming. - What's going on? - We were led to believe that grades were improving and would continue to do so into H1-19. - Who amongst us interpreted this as a 20% reduction in output in Q1 compared to Q4 output. Most intriguing. This fact alone has set us on the back-foot for the rest of the year now. - IMO. - We seem now to be in a phase where every major announcement results in the destruction of market-cap. And what is more intriguing it looks set to continue. - Here's a comforting thought. Q1 prelims will be upon us in about 5 weeks from now. What do you think will happen when it is made official that Q1 output is down around 20% from the previous Q, at a time when everybody was expecting at least parity or even slightly higher? - How do you think the market's will react? I'll give you one guess! Be prepared. I think your use of the word 'Intrigue' is a good one.

Hi Pistachio - I'm glad you weren't fooled. - Good lad. - I agree with you drawing your own conclusions Good luck..

I have a suspicion that that some of January's production was brought forward to bolster the Q4 137k oz result. -It could easily be done, easily hidden. Because they haven't been reporting shipments, nobody would be any the wiser. It's the only thing that makes sense when trying to understand a 20% reduction in Q1 performance. - Apart from the set-back of last May, when was the last time under normal conditions that production dropped by as much as this? In other words, they are robbing Peter to pay Paul in their quest to handle news. - It's possible I suppose, although it would be difficult to prove, that they needed to boost Q4 in order to trigger some kind of end-of-year bonus payments, although this is pure speculation on my part in trying to understand the reasoning behind the Q1 production mystery.

As stated in presentation: 'Mined grades expected to continue to improve throughout H1' - So, grades not a problem, so why the 20% reduction in output for the 1st Qtr? - This reduction is like being left in the stalls in a horse-race. There is a lot of making-up to do and the slightest hint that we can't and the markets will be relentless. - The best way of supporting a recovery would have been through setting out the stall with a bumper 1st Qtr. That would have provided a very positive statement of intent and rocket-fuel for lift-off.

I wonder if the BoD are engaged in shorting. - They are in the wonderful position of having fore knowledge and who would know if they were shorting? It's closed period for dealing in shares, but shorting is a way of getting around it. There's something afoot, the moves are just too extreme.

This is a super-snake slide. It's gotten to the point now where the slightest setback results not in us taking a hit but rather we are burned at the stake, crucified, whatever. It's happening every time now and because of the poor 1st quarter we are set-up to be aunt-sallies for the rest of the year. I have always been attracted to the fundamentals accompanying this share but they don't seem to count and I'm drawing the conclusion that they never will. Too many dots disconnected here. Centamin is shrouded in mystery on so many fronts now.

Hi DA SUT - Using your logic, Q2-Q3-Q4 could be even worse than Q1 couldn't it? And just because they did it last year doesn't make it a given that it will happen again does it? I believe it was reasonable for shareholders to consider that Q1 would at least be as good as Q4 and possibly even better since Q4 was below forecast. I can't see how it can be interpreted in any other way and neither it seems does the market. We were told what we were told based upon best technical advice, It's how it works isn't it? I haven't your background/experience in such matters so I rely on what I'm told and trust that I am being told the truth. Are you saying that forecasting is in the hands of fate rather than the technicians? I mean, I understand the simple arithmetic of 1gram divided by 0.8grams but we have professionals that make these calls not mystic-megs. However, out of my respect for you personally I'll leave it at that.

The Q1 forecast is what has spooked the market in my opinion. - Now wonder there has been silence on gold-movements. - Same old, same old. - If forecast for Q1 had been say 140k-145k, not unreasonable considering Q4 results, the SP would have gone in the opposite direction IMO. - The pressure on the remaining quarters is now immense. - What a f***ing way to start the new-year. - Trust was, and still is, even more so, a big issue with this management. - Nothing that has come out of today has made me change my mind. In fact, if anything, I'm even more suspicious than I was before. I think there is a lot that is being hidden/suppressed. There's just too much that doesn't add-up.

Apologies, my post was in response to DA SUT.

Your take isn't what we were led to believe. - Our troubles were behind us. The LHDR problem was resolved, moreover, an additional LHDR was commissioned and in play. Q4 was the pointer to the future. That's what we were led to believe. - Hell, am I the only one who interpreted it this way? - Who expected a 20% fall-off in production for Q1 19?

It begs the question: Where did Q4 production come from? And, according to the company, even that fell short of forecast.

It's not the confirmation of last year's outcome so much, as has already been pointed out, it was pretty well known in advance, but rather the outlook going forward, especially Q1 forecast which is very poor considering Q4 output. IMO

Hi Hopingmore - 13th May? - I've missed that in my reading. - So it is tax year 19/20. - Thanks. - Extreme delay in payment compared to previous years. - Why should that be? -