Member Info for Rebess

Hi hedgehog

Never forget, it's only my point of view. - I'd love to be 180 degrees wrong here and if I am, I won't feel bad about any of you giving me a BB good-hiding. Try and be gentle though. :-)

Hi ton-fra-cen

A disproportionately lower H1 relative to forecast has proved that that is how the company covers-up the truth. If we follow this pattern, you will discover that H2 falls short as well, it's just how they use their smoke & mirrors technique to deceive. You will see. This is how they have perfected their method of cover-up. - They can't deceive about Q1 because it's already upon us, we'll know exactly in a week or two. So, they have to tell the truth about Q1 it can't be avoided. But, don't worry it'll all come good later in the year. The problem is, it won't. The problem is that the current forecast of 490 - 520 won't be met, but, issuing a false forecast is their way of putting off the day of reckoning. I'm afraid their methodology now has become far too transparent. - You will see. The arithmetic you present is impressive and a credit to your knowledge, but you will find that it doesn't mean anything. In fact, I'm expecting 'Unlucky mine syndrome' to kick-in, whereby all sorts of unforeseen events occur that will account for the failure to achieve forecast. - It's the only way they can continue the cover-up. Watch this space. - BTW, I know I'm sticking my neck-out here but feel-free to chop it off, I don't mind.

Hi Willowman - Yes, I'm inclined to agree with you about there being no incentive for the directors to pursue the settlement of the CC. - Enriching is a good word to describe the returns directors are getting and of course that largesse will continue regardless of the CC. - So why bother?

Hi Market

Dyer think we're getting too long in the tooth for this business? - :-) The last thing this share needs is a cynical old-sod like me passing comment. - However, in spite of my age and my experience in the markets, there's something I can't quite put my finger on with Centamin and the way it's run. - I mean, here we are, a FTSE 250 company, quoted on the London Stock Exchange as well as the Canadian TSX, operating in a country with an established legal framework and yet are not prepared to protect shareholders interests through seeking legal redress in the case of the outstanding court case.. Quite simply, Centamin are not prepared to pursue justice on behalf of their injured/aggrieved shareholders. It's obvious they are not going to do it. Some say ' They don't want to rock the boat'. - So, pursuing justice on behalf of their shareholders in a country with well established jurisprudence, is rocking the boat. - Where the hell are we, in the 'Wild West'? - Very strange, It's difficult , in my mind at least, to square this circle. I cite the CC, but this represents only one of the unfathomable mysteries surrounding Centamin.

ATB market, keep popping in. - cheers.

Quite a few newcomers to Centamin, seduced no doubt by the low SP and the impressive fundamentals. - The fundamentals are the thing though, this must be an oversight they'll be thinking. Hell, money in the bank, no debt, free-cash-flow etc.etc. Wow! what an opportunity. - In all fairness, it's what's kept me on board when really I should have jumped-ship. The signs were all there, but the fundamentals were so outstanding, I was blinded by them, I'll hang-on a bit longer I thought. - I now view them as a mirage, something simmering on the horizon along with the CC and L32, a trick of the light, a place that will never be reached. - I now accept this. A few years ago, I once described Centamin as a Golden-apple tree surrounded by serpents. Sad to say, I believe it to be as apt a description today as it was then.

The adverse comments from DM should help us kick next-week off nicely!!

You're right there Razor. - There's something not right that goes beyond normal. - So many dots that fail to join-up. - The investors that have played this share for the dividends and volatility have been the wise ones. Although I continued to express caution, and was always wary of the credibility of the directors, I must say, after the encouragement of the improvement in output in Q4 and the noises that were being made in relation to being over the worse and the clear road ahead for at least 3 years, I never expected what was about to befall us. - I'm out of here as soon as I can.

Hi philandlynne

You are wondering what the real story is. - I'm afraid it's one of deception and lies and the excessive use off smoke & mirrors in their communications. - Even the analysts are now seeing beyond the deceit and are presenting the facts as they now see them.

A low H1 followed by increased output for a high H2 works on paper, as simple arithmetic always does. - Same in the past - Low Q1&Q2 followed by High Q3&Q4. - Well, they always seem to manage the Low bit right although last year it was even lower than expected . The problem is, the half that's supposed to save the day, H2, is also low, is also falling short, resulting in the catastrophic destruction of market-cap. - It's easy to be seduced by the fine-words contained in the Glossy, but for me, and in this specific case, actions speak louder than words and I'm afraid I will not be taken in by them again. - I'm not a mining expert and can't compete with some of the fine-logic expounded by some experts here, so I'm basing my judgement upon the facts as they have presented and my experience with those who are presenting them. Judgement is a very personal thing and each of us stands or falls by it, so each to his/her own..

Some bonuses are linked to 'Shareholder returns'.- Dividends are calculated in shareholder returns, so, now you know the reason for such generous dividends. - They help trigger the criteria for directors bonuses. - I think I'm right in this appraisal, unless of course I'm misreading it. - I'll let you know if I am.

Received the 2018 AR through the post yesterday. - A telephone-directory of a publication, beautiful and professional in it's presentation and format. - It's 16mm thick and full of interesting information. - I'll try to post some snippets from it as I progress through the reading. - Bonuses are interesting.

Hi Gino - You're quite right. Thank you for the correction. - Of course there's 5 Fridays in this years March, that threw me I think. :-) What is the world coming to, I'm 81 and I don't know what day it is. - God forbid. - Good luck.

If I'm not mistaken, today is the second Friday in March, not the third.

Reported today: Knife crime in the UK has reached a ten-year high. - I wonder if that statistic includes the House of Commons? :-)

Are you a financial adviser? - Advising such a large investment for 6 months for a modest 2%- 3% return. - I think he must be. :-)

Hi - At least you can take comfort from the fact that your comments have not taken the board over. :-)

Never forget that Q1 forecast puts us behind schedule to achieve yearly target of 490-520. - So, we're starting off with a handicap. At this moment in time there is no reason to believe that we will catch-up. We are being kept completely in the dark. The sound is turned off and I would venture that it is to stay that way indefinitely. This is a re-run of last years outlook. I fully expect warnings to emerge as the quarters unfold. I fear that 490-520 will prove to be too optimistic, even though of itself it is a low forecast. The smoke and mirrors scenario is once again all set to go into action. IMO

What it confirms to me, each to his own of course, is the difficulty they are having in raising acceptable finance. - I can't help but think about the Hitachi Nuclear-power-station deal that they walked away from over the same difficulties. There is an element of desperation in changing tac so late in the piece. We'll have to see. It also confirms that yesterdays fall was potentially on the back of leaked information. That also is a concern. - Not only would I not get too excited but rather I would regard todays announcement as a worrying development.

Hope I'm wrong but I can see the potential for all sorts of cover-up stories being fed-in to their narrative going-forward. - In order to save face, it's possible that all sorts of unforeseen set-backs will suddenly transpire. - Explosions, roof-falls , key component break-downs etc. etc. - The trouble is that once deceit becomes a strategy in communications, it becomes difficult to cover it up

8th April - Make a note of it guys. - It's a day when there might be another good-hiding on the cards. That is, after all, why they have them isn't it, to inflict punishment? - :-)