Member Info for Rebess

The board is in high-spirits today and why wouldn't it be. - I think it was important to beat the top-end of forecast with regards to sending a signal to the market. It certainly beats the double good-hiding syndrome that we have become accustomed to. - One noticeable absence is a Q2 forecast. - For me that speaks volumes. - I'm guessing they will wait until half-way through the Q before offering guidance, as they did for Q1. This will be the new format going forward I feel. It makes sense.- Good news for everyone today, both shareholders and Centamin. It's nice to see.

Thanks Chas I was aware of the CG freedom, but for some reason, in the back of my mind, I thought Dividends were still taxable. - Considering that I usually use my ISA allowance to the full, I should have known better, it was only on reading Pushme's comment that I raised the issue. - Glad I did. - Thanks.

My understanding is that dividends paid into ISA's are taxable.

Hi Scotman - I think the mineral rights might belong to the 'Duchy of Lancaster' - AKA The Queen.

Hi GK

I'll go along with everything you say here. - It's the 'Mine' and it getting built that counts. - Like many others, upon confirmation, I'm expecting a 'Large spike' in the SP. If this comes to pass, it should create a window of opportunity for an exit before the nuances and small-print have been digested and understood. Standing on the side-lines for a while until the dust has settled might be a good strategy here. But, as Mike Tyson used to say, 'I go into every fight with a strategy, but as soon as I get hit in the face, I drop it'.

It seems they can't secure the credit they need down the intended route so now they are supping with the devil as a plan B. - Would that be a fair summary? - Feel free to crucify. - Some of the insults are brilliant.

Hi Pushme
Usually if there's bad news they release it on a Friday after markets close, thus using the weekend to absorb the shock. So. using my perverse-logic and tomorrow being Good-Friday, bad-news would probably have been released today to allow the whole of the Easter Weekend to take the strain. On this basis, since they are not using this tactic this time around, I'm kinda figuring it might not be bad-news. Repeating what I said earlier, because we were half-way through the Quarter when they announced their forecast, they only had to guess at six-weeks worth of production in making said forecast. - In golf that would be a gimme. - If they don't get this one right, there is no hope.

Siko Hi - All this jaw-dropping inside info. and yet you sold your shares - It must have been tough for you to do that at the time I'm thinking.

Yes, ex-dividend tomorrow, which means, in theory, a further drop of 2.36p following.

The SP has been so stripped-bare, due to last years shenanigans, that the slightest set-back in the sector as a whole seems to have a disproportionate affect. - We are naked and have very little protection at our disposal. Centamin needs to start to deliver and quick. - I'm fairly certain Q1 forecast will be met since it was half-way through the Q before any forecast was made. In other words, they already knew what was in the bag at the half-way stage so they only had to estimate the remaining six-weeks of the quarter in making their forecast. - If they can't get it right under these circumstances, then we really are in trouble. So, assuming Q1 will be met, how will the market react? Will there be a forecast for Q2 or will they wait six-weeks before committing as they did for Q1? - We'll soon know what they're up to.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-16/gold-dumps-someone-decides-0830et-perfect-time-puke-15-billion-notional

Dividend around 2.3p of value. - Who would have though that the situation would evolve into this 18 months ago. The 2016 sector-reset-effect has been wiped-out and then some.

Hi Auson - Good point, in which case my comparisons will be flawed. - Thanks.

Hi philandlynne - If we can achieve the progression of growth that you outline, I would take that. - At least it would demonstrate that they are capable of hitting targets and ultimately their annual forecast and that they are in control of events. Which, in turn, should help restore the SP each step of the way. - Too much to ask perhaps? -Personally I think so. Playing catch-up is a big ask. We'll see. Let's at least start-off along this path by meeting Q1.

Hi Scotman - No anxieties on your behalf then. - Wow! - Balls of steel. - It must be through wearing kilts. - :-)

I note in hedgehogg's reply from Centamin, they state that the 'Quarterly report' will now supersede the previous 'Prelims' report, thus falling into line with our UK-listed peers. - So far as I can see this is simply not true.
Fresnillo (Fres), Highland Gold (HGM), Acacia (ACA), Petrapovlask (POG), Hoschschild (HOC) et al, all have their prelim dates published in their respective 'Financial-calendars' right into 2020. - So what are they talking about? Centamin appears to be the only one amongst it's peers that's scrapping 'Prelims'. - Why?

As a Sirius shareholder, obviously I become anxious along with everyone else as to the current state-of-play. - However, my biggest areas of concern isn't about Sirius or CF or the management or any individual, but rather about the current credit-climate. - In short, there's no easy/cheap money sloshing around any more. Things have become very tight. Many of our major companies are having to re-assess, especially amongst the Civils, projects are being put on hold or even cancelled due to financing constraints. Of course there is money available, at a price, a price it seems that many are rejecting. - Some projects may have to pause and exist on a Care and' Maintenance' basis. So, these are the things that concern me the most. We are in the middle of a 'Credit-climate-change'.

We were half-way through Q1 before a forecast was issued. On this basis I'm expecting that said forecast will be met, there or thereabouts. I'm expecting Q2 forecast to be in the same ball-park, resulting in a low H1 with the expectation of a high H2 to follow.- Thus low H1 + high H2 = 490-520. - Effectively, we'll be attempting catch-up as the year progresses. Given the vagaries of mining, often highlighted by the pros. amongst us, the uncertainty of grades etc., catch-up provides no wiggle-room whatsoever going forward, it leaves no contingency for any form of set-back. We are in an exact re-run of last years methodology of keeping the natives quiet. It's why I'm not expecting forecasts to be met, but why I am expecting a weird and wonderful array of inventions of reason as to why. - It's just how they do things at Centamin these days. - Watch this space.

Thanks philandlynne - I love it. - Powerful, penetrating.

'For them no more the blazing-hearth shall burn
Nor busy housewife ply her evening care
Nor children run to lisp their sires return
To climb his knee the envied kiss to share'.