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I have come to conclusion that our management think only of their positions and salaries, they know we undergoing considerable capex when moves of wcp are required yet when the company has made good cash flow and profits over previous years has squandered it on buybacks on several occasions to let investors out.

This type of action is fine if there are no major financial obligations to the company on the horizon but not if like us we have considerable spend going forward, so the management are happy to burden the company with debt in a rising inflationary world, no wonder the banks love KMR.

These actions imo make us less attractive as takeover target, when I think about it much of these moves could and should of been mainly financed via cash reserves not bank loans.

In the CMD update early 2023 in their estimates both new barges were included,

plus we have the updates to existing plant with a design review in progress estimated at $41m to be confirmed which is extra spend.

This is a great asset, which is being financially mismanaged.

Well after a quick read through first impressions are I am surprised the market sees it as positive in today's environment.

At the end of the day it comes down to the financials which in my opinion they have wasted $30m on buybacks which have done nothing for the sp and reduced the mcap of the company. Only for this money to borrowed again when they refinance their terms.

At 31 December 2023, Kenmare had net cash of $20.7 million (2022: $27.5 million net cash). Cash and cash equivalents were $71.0 million (2022: $108.3 million) and gross bank loans, including accrued interest, were $50.3 million (2022: $80.8 million).

So we should be sat on $50m net cash, secondly do they know what they are doing with the move to be $71m out in their estimations in the space of 9 months or so, and their reasoning seems to be enhanced safety contingency if I am reading it right.

Thirdly guidance is down on this year which was down on last year this is a suprise to me because last year from memory we had the lightening strike and slimes issues which have been addressed so I am surprised we are not beating this years numbers.

One thing management can't detract from is the asset it's self which is up there with the best, long mine life so even our management should be able to make good cash flow, and with the capex they have spent on power surge breaker, green credentials new barges etc they must be running out of ideas after this next move and the updates to other areas, so I can see an end to the expensive cash burn items and more sustaining the operation we have, so ultimately a cash building situation, the building blocks are in place for this to happen, lets get the wcp move out of way and see.

I sold half my holding back at £4.50ish but have added back at these lows hopefully we can get back to those highs.

If you have been holding decades it would be a shame if we fall back lower however markets are crazy at present and we do have a quality asset at a low sp hopefully this quality will shine through in the end.

From investor relations

We are expecting to announce our Q4 production update tomorrow at 7am UK time.

Hopefully tomorrow we will be singing the company's praises not long to wait.

Well Contango what's changed for you to take such a drastic change of opinion from .....I will buying this dip, ... to .....no better place to park your money in 2024, all in the space of a few weeks.

I unlike you don't rate the management with their half glass empty tone at every announcement so no doubt when they finally do post the update there will be caveat attached which will detract from what should be good figures from this world class asset.

In the unlikely buyout scenario can't see that happening with the wcp move in the offing, although after is a possibility, with these duffers at the helm probably 30% above the average trailing sp.

Today's price action on reflection seems harsh, Blakeley learned the hard way over the Montara issues and the continued investment in Stag and Montara is to ensure maintenance is at highest order possible so that no further issues arise with these assets whose importance to the business is fading by the day as their production becomes a smaller percentage of production.

The other news in the update seems to of been overlooked, so it looks as though another few months are required with no further setbacks and Akatara making first gas on time.

Looking at the presentation the cash position does look robust with $220m available via cash and bank facilities and with renegotiation expected to increase further.

Blakeley did hint at further acquisitions we are always looking and can't talk about what we are doing incase it doesn't come to fruition.

Anyway there is no point bailing out at this low level

Yes the end of year net debt position is a surprise, however with extra spend requirements for Stag and Montara with their age related issues is disappointing, it makes think they are being watched closely by the regulation body and can't afford any more missteps or incidents.

While guidance for the year is a positive looking much better, going forward they need to deliver on expectations.

Wwwdotresearch-tree.com

copy/substitute into the starred areas hopefully then the link will function.

The link is via research tree

seplat video conference organiser lse, should be interesting.

https://*********************/events/london-stock-exchange/seplat-energy-nigeria-s-leading-independent-energy-company/1990

Excellent update today are far as company operations are concerned, we will have to wait and see what happens with pgms, with more unprofitable miners at the top end of the cost curve ceasing operations its a process of time for these actions to reflect on spot prices.

Vsa morning miner gave Caml a rousing review today.

https://soundcloud.com/user-596578261/5mmm-110124-jan-11-2024-001-riverside?utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=social_sharing

Excellent update, no surprises all segments ticking along nicely, with the all recent capex projects either completed or entering the end stage, good to see cash heading north again at $57m after the drop recorded in the last update.

Nice to see the company pursuing another exit route for production, financially in good position another well coming online which hopefully see 20k+ for the foreseeable future, if only oil stocks were in favour lol.

Well researched analysis which highlights the missteps of the previous twelve months plus detailed information on all of JSE assets, looking forward to part two.

I know several of us here are hoping at some point for KMR to be taken out by a bigger fish however today's announcement regarding SHG is a warning be careful what you wish for.

A cash offer has been accepted and recommend by the board at a price is about 32% above the last six months average price and 6% above the current price.

As per usual it's small shareholders who are being shafted again, as they feel the true value of the company is north of the current share price.

That is what is in the back of my mind, I always consider it is a possibility due to having seen this happen before.

If something along those lines happened here I for one would be very disappointed, of course it's possible our board you never recommend a sale on the cheap with a falling share price would they?

Funds less negative as there isn't as much Cu about as they thought personally I beginning to think they dream up these narratives as they go along as it almost changes weekly from gluts to deficits.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/funds-less-negative-copper-supply-landscape-shifts-andy-home-2023-12-19/

A pleasant lead in to the broker note released today.

Nigeria’s leading independent energy company We believe Seplat has multiple catalysts for value uplift which remain poorly understood despite the share price outperformance this year. Based on new modelling, we provide detailed insights into these catalysts. Most certain are improved operational reliability and the start-up of the ANOH gas project. Completion of the MPNU acquisition and conversion to the new PIA terms could be transformative while enhanced corporate governance and the improved outlook for Nigeria add supportive context. Seplat is on a discount rating to peers and on compelling forward valuation multiples with upside of 32%-91% to our initial NAV estimates, excluding the potential transformational value from the MPNU and PIA uplifts.

Broker note out today.

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Kenmare Resources: Capital projects update – WCP A move sanctioned by Board; capex estimate upped

Kenmare Resources Plc (KMR:LON) | 386 -29 (-1.9%) | Mkt Cap: 344.9m

Hannam & Partners

Roger Bell

6 pages

Kenmare Resources (“KMR”) has provided an update on its capital projects, including the transition of Wet Concentrator Plant A (“WCP A”) to the Nataka ore zone, expected to complete by 2026. KMR’s Board has now approved the construction of a new de-sliming circuit and tailings storage facility (“TSF”) required once operations move to Nataka. With a definitive feasibility study (“DFS”) still underway on remaining infrastructure items, the total estimated capex has been updated to US$316-331m,

I hope you are right about a positive update in January to hopefully halt this trend towards a three year low.

HANOI/BEIJING Dec 15 (Reuters) - Fees to process copper concentrate in the Chinese spot market have fallen by a quarter in less than three months to stand below $70 a metric ton on Friday, fanned by worries over tight supply.

The spot copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) in China, as assessed by information provider Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), hit $69.48 a ton, down 25% from $93.23 a ton on Sept. 28.

Such treatment charges, one of the main sources of income for smelters, fall when less copper concentrate is available, and vice versa.

"The expected shortage of copper concentrate may lead to a rapid decline in spot processing fees," SMM said in a note.

Chinese smelters might be unable to buy enough copper concentrate, with some potentially experiencing passive production cuts due to insufficient operating rates, it added.

SMM flipped its copper concentrate market balance forecast to a deficit of 200,000 tons to 300,000 tons for 2024, from a previous projection of a surplus of 70,000 tons.

Consultancy CRU Group also switched its forecast for 2024 to a deficit of 174,000 tons, from a previous 260,000-ton surplus projection.

Supply of copper concentrate next year turned tight after Panama's president ordered the closure of First Quantum's FM.TO Cobre mine. Miner Anglo American AAL.L also cuts its production guidance by 20% for 2024 and by 18% for 2025.

"Panama disruption is the main driver of the fees falling, right at the time Chinese smelters are stockpiling for the new year," said a source at a Chinese smelter.

However, trading volume on the spot concentrate market was tepid, as smelters were reluctant to accept lower fees and traders sought to hold back stocks or offer lower fees, accentuating supply tightness, another smelter source said.

CRU halved its output forecast for Cobre Panama mine to 50,000 tons in the fourth quarter of 2023, from 102,000 tons. The mine's output will drop to zero in the first quarter of 2024, it said, adding that more than half usually goes to China.

The disruption in Panama was a key reason behind the drop in the annual TC benchmark for 2024 to $80 a ton, with smelters accepting the first fee drop in three years on fear of supply tightness.

China's biggest copper smelter, Jiangxi Copper 60362.SS, saw increasing challenges ahead for the country's smelters in securing copper concentrate, a company official said last month.