Member Info for raxfactor

Low pgm prices forces a rethink at Sibanye, possible job losses and the need to increase efficiency due to low prices.

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/more-than-4-000-jobs-on-the-line-as-sibanye-considers-future-of-four-south-african-pgm-shafts-2023-10-25

Copper futures in London and New York were heading for a 2.5% weekly decline after sentiment was hurt by the stronger dollar, not least against the Chinese renminbi where the offshore yuan traded near a record low amid fears surrounding Chinese growth. A near 30% jump in copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange, the most in two years, added to the negative sentiment, despite the overall level of exchange monitored inventories in New York, London and Shanghai remaining at historical low levels.

China’s commodities import surged last month, ahead of an expected seasonal pick-up in economic activity and as government stimulus begins to filter through into raw materials and following months of destocking amid an uncertain economic outlook, the prospect for further stimulus measures are supporting a period of restocking to meet future demand for finished goods. Coal and copper ore shipments both jumped to all-time highs, crude oil imports reached the third highest level on record while iron ore imports reached a three-year high.

Overall, copper remains resilient and despite an environment of stagnant manufacturing PMIs, normally well correlated with copper demand, Chinese demand has remained surprisingly robust. Not least driven by strong, and government supported, green transition demand towards batteries, electrical traction motors, energy storage and grid upgrades.

The lack of big mining projects to ensure a steady flow of future supply continues to receive attention from long-term focused investors as it supports our structural long-term bullish outlook, driven by rising demand for green transformation metals and mining companies facing rising cash costs driven by higher input prices due to higher diesel and labour costs, lower ore grades, rising regulatory costs and government intervention, and significantly climate change causing disruptions from flooding to droughts.

For now, just like gold, we remain patiently bullish while the price of HG copper continues to trade within a $3.50 to $4 range. In the short-term, movements in the Chinese yuan will likely provide most of the directional price input as speculators, currently holding a small net short in HG copper, continue to adjust positions accordingly.

Hopefully not as low as £1, having no debt is a bonus at present inflationary pressures would be hitting hard if they were still paying debt down, Cu prices relatively healthy considering prices in 2022 were ath and compared to 2020 are up by a decent amount.

The issue here is lead and zinc demand seems to be declining mainly down to slowdown in the West plus after stating a small deficit would occur this year we have a surplus.

If it drops to £1 then p/e about 6 based on current prices so on that basis it's possible.

Been watching this for a while the company looks very promising growing the business while keeping existing clients and £50m in the bank from memory very quiet board which is usually not bad thing.

I am surprised that others have not latched onto this especially in the field they operate.

Mine life and deposits are excellent, cash generation from assets is excellent especially once this latest wcp move is completed, some here think management are good, I on the other hand think they are very average bordering on poor, that is based on cash wastage, operation output stoppage due to dry docking of vessels, which with the cash they have blown they could have spare barges, plus the negative tone to any set of results which in general gets down played.

Then we have the country which has it's issues, on going militants in the north and general sentiment of Africa in general which results in a discounted valuation, current p/e is around 2.4 which is very low imo, however due to jurisdiction I can't see this getting the valuation the asset deserves hopefully in future dividend payments will be some consolation plus there is always the long held hope that someone else will see the value here and relieve management of their duties.

Good to see a high cash position maintained, coupled with a slow down in Karo seems prudent given current pgm prices.

Although current guidance has been missed for pgms I don't see that as an issue if they had exceeded guidance with low prices that would look like a race to the bottom.

Under current circumstances chrome is key good to see it's significant contribution.

Although looking at the price action the market doesn't see anything good while I see competent management.

The company can't control river levels, good news rainfall is on the increase again so that will resolve the issue, good to see another export route being investigated, another positive is the cash position.

Good update with no other unexpected issues reported.

Did you bother to look?

The chart I am referring to is the last five years upto and including now.

Alternative view to usual narrative which is a surprise.

LONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Copper is overwhelmingly the top bet for base metals next year, attendees at a London Metal Exchange (LME) event said on Monday.

Copper got 53% of votes in an informal poll at the LME Seminar on which base metal is likely to have most upside in 2024, after a series of analysts presented their cases for each of the six base metals traded on the LME plus steel.

Steven look at a 5 year copper price chart tell me what you see.

Nice to see the sp respond to positive moves in oil and gas price rises makes a change but can we hold on to gains?

It definitely has limited mine life which as stated why they are on the outlook for further opportunities if this is a worry try ATYM cash positive with a concentration plant on the go in a favourable jurisdiction.

Kounrad life of mine is projected till 2034, hence why they are looking for further opportunities in and around Kaz.

The Sasa has a longer mine life.

Recent investor presentation with q and a at the end worth watching.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/interim-results-173

Caml bought Sasa in 2017 they have since completely paid off the debt, are debt free with $50m cash, continued to payout dividends while paying down the debt, capex will decrease this year returning to normal production expenditure.

The above suggests competent management obviously investors with averages in the upper 220 range will be not be happy with the current performance however others might of bought a position when the sp dipped below 200p or when the sp crashed 2.5 years ago it comes down to timing as is it is with all stocks, if this heads down 140-150p that to my mind would be an excellent buy for a well run profitable company, or to reduce your average.

Nothing stays the same situations change all the time taxes increase as they have here and as they have in other industries the windfall tax for oil companies.

The choice is wether you see value here or not, however one area that is not up for discussion is the fact it is a well run company.

There has been a flicker of improvement in Rh price this week which bodes well although we still have a lot of catching up to do. But it's not not just pgms we rely on Chrome is doing well to support our commitments at Karo.

Johnson Matthey released a series of videos a couple of months back looking at pgms well worth your time this is just one there are several.

https://youtu.be/n7BjuMqTADg?si=pKrogcjtbse9sHJZ

Hi Rich,

Whati don't get about buy backs is the mcap reduces by cash spent buying up the shares, I get we now own more of the company which is now worth less, okay EPs goes up which usually benefits management via performance in which increased EPs is a factor, no benefit as I can see for shareholders, because it's a manipulated performance, not through efficiency or innovation.

So in theory dividends payments should increase, however if they had just distributed the cash, or payed down debt when we were debt laden in my eyes far better usage of cash which is hard earned.

Of course management do very well so no wonder they favour them.

Over the years I think they have earned the right to be trusted, they have steered the company through some difficult times, economically in the country and the currency woes, while at the same time sinking the central shaft from cash flow was a great achievement.

Even though we have had some set backs with the new venture I trust the board

to get Blanket running at optimum levels to give the financial support required to the Bilboes project.

Nice to see the sp stabilise.

Hi Viable,

Yes I thought she is an interesting addition to the board her background certainly implies she can have some positive input and I don't think she is here just to pick the additional pay check.

Funnily enough I googled her but there was so many Emily Morris's I didn't know which one was her, so thanks for link.

We are in a inflationary period and this is worldwide not localised to Eastern Europe, all producers are impacted and their production costs have increased accordingly I would argue that Caml are still at the lower end of the producers cost curve.

If copper, lead and zinc are of interest there are loads of other companies to invest in, from exploration small caps to multi Billion £ producers we have the option to pick and choose, or sit on the side lines.