Member Info for raxfactor

Tosh, if the company had distributed the cash as dividends instead of buybacks we would already be a high yielding share not looking at what might be in the future.

Can't complain about operation and production which are back on track and looking good, prices we can't dictate but they are holding up well.

However I will complain about the share buy back being a waste of money imo it does nothing, for all the shares they've bought back over years you would think we would be at a all-time high, but no, if they want to splash the cash just give it as a dividend.

By the way having lots of small share holders I don't see a need to buy them out.

Caml dividend policy is to pay out between 30-50% of free cash flow, however recently they paid out 82% which is probably not going to be the rule.

It should be noted that they are a lower cost producer and even with lower prices for their metals they still generate profits to support the dividend, obviously if profits fall then the dividend would decrease pro rata.

2027 seems to be the year being touted we will wait and see what happens.

Copper producers warn of lack of mines to meet demand for metal - https://on.ft.com/46nJO1s via @FT

Broker note released today with our results due later this week.

Kenmare Resources will release its Q3 trading update on Thursday 12th October. The key focus will be the delivery of operational improvements after a challenging first half, in our view. We estimate heavy mineral concentrate (“HMC”) production in Q3 of 378kt, delivering ilmenite end-product output of 276kt, zircon of 14kt and rutile of 2.2kt. Including solid H1 financial results (reported o 15th Aug), we revise our FY23E EBITDA upwards by 5% to US$236m. Our Dec’24E target price is unchanged.

I wish I knew what it was lol.

Another steady as she goes update capex due to reduce after paste fill mining gets into full swing at Sasa and the decline gets completed, then we return to normal operational expenditure.

Good to see progress on the solar plant, although music to my ears they only did it as tick box exercise for green credentials not because it was necessary for the plant.

With the current sp there can't be many lth in profit the IPO was at 35p, especially those who bought in the open market are well down at this level.

I can only assume some lth have bought at the bottom and flipped for a quick profit when we moved up, why wouldn't you, plus we still have persistent sells to push us back into the twenties.

Hopefully drop is due to general malaise in the market and although oil is down from its recent highs I would of thought JSE will be generally happy with the oil price.

The Cu news is mixed, while longer term we are heading into surplus territory currently we have a small deficit. However fund managers are bearish and are taking up short positions see link below.

The global copper market is expected to see a deficit of 27,000 metric tons this year and a surplus of 467,000 tons in 2024, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said on Wednesday.

https://www.xm.com/au/research/markets/allNews/reuters/funds-sell-copper-as-technical-picture-deteriorates-andy-home-53656571

There is no doubt Caml fcf has been hit, however in H2 there won't be the $7m Kaz withholding tax to pay weighed to H1, so hopefully production will be up a little to meet guidance improving revenue., I expect divis to decrease as it's a factor of fcf , as it stands expecting H2 to be better than H1.

The ideal time to add would be commodity prices increasing, interestingly although China is mentioned as weak demand I came across some info stating iron ore imports to China are as normal so steel demand there is the same but in the West they have decreased so if they are building stuff in China perhaps the demand for our metals will firm up.

Being in lower cost producers offers us some good protection as others will now be struggling with debt, inflation to wages combined with fear of a recession driving lower commodity prices which if looked at over a 5 year period hasn't happened yet.

Imo Lead Zinc and Copper are holding up well over that time span.

We have no debt reducing capex next year and a good divi which I see continuing, if the market wishes to mark us down therein lies an opportunity.

Copper concentrate forecast to be in surplus until 2025, smelter changes at sux year highs usually increase when there is ample supply and decrease when supply is tight.

https://www.xm.com/research/markets/allNews/reuters/china-smelters-keep-q4-copper-guidance-price-at-sixyear-high-53647734

Data out this week shows declining surpluses in both metals let's hope this trend continues thereby firming up prices.

The global zinc market surplus narrowed to 17,400 metric tons in July from 75,900 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed on Tuesday.

The global lead market surplus narrowed to 23,300 metric tons in July from a surplus of 63,500 tons in the previous month, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed on Tuesday.

Jadestone Energy is considering alternatives for managing production at the Montara oilfield offshore Australia, which could see a replacement floating production, storage and offloading vessel deployed on the asset.

The Singapore-headquartered E&P player’s chief executive Paul Blakeley said: “We have a project ongoing to look at alternative ways in which we can manage the remaining life of the Montara asset.

Pleased to see they are not consigned to an upgraded planned maintenance schedule for the life of the fpso, but looking at alternatives which may result in a replacement vessel imo this is good news well worth investigating, we wait to see what comes from this review.

Any oil company is not without risk that goes with the territory, you can ask BP about that and countless others, JSE is undergoing massive investment in Akatara to grow production and the company.

Management could of just sat on their hands with projects they have producing a steady income stream with work overs to maintain production, however they chose expansion.

I don't see JSE as any riskier than other oilers their bank balance is only under stress due to investment decisions, and by the way we have loans not fully utilized to cover for further setbacks.

If Akatara wasn't being put into production, the Montara issues would of nothing more than a bump in road.

How they handled that event which turned into a crisis is questionable but their acquisitions and growth plans are not.

They had originally budgeted for oil at $65 net debt at end of fy 23 approx $110m, with oil at its current levels ($70-90) it's projected to be around $50m or less, I would suggest that gives them some leeway and reduces the financial burden.

Drop may be linked to US stock market performance which is trending lower, we started out okay then traded lower after lunch which suggests what's going to happen in the US effects us here they seem a bit downbeat today, anyway they sneeze and we catch a cold.

Other than that Cu trending lower with Lead and Zinc more or less stable chart wise we are following Cu down.

Shame really hoping we could stay above 200p.

Current production 16.7boe/d as per recent presentation for the beginning of September, probably seeing some traders exiting with a healthy profit if they bought in the low 20s.

Good to see the oil price holding up above $90 this will ease the financial burden as we ramp up capex payments for Akatara keeping our net debt position to around $50m which is a huge unexpected bonus if it holds.

Perhaps it's an exchange between ii, with another rns due to confirm who has picked up their 4.4%, what ever has occurred it hasn't collapsed the sp for such a large transaction.

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/09/19/jadestone-energy-claims-operational-turnaround/

I would add to their comment if you look at today's results presentation slide ref balance sheet strengthening there is a shaded area added with oil in the $70-90 range, September projection the impact this has on expected net debt is significant down to about $50m from $100m+

So it looks to me we having some good fortune with the oil price and for us it couldn't come at a better time.

Ref production stated from Sept 11-17, 16,700 boe/d.

Or should I say power/electricity instead of gas.

In the power sector, a falling UK carbon allowance price has put the cost of UK gas-fired plants at a discount to its neighbours, leading to power exports to Belgium, France and the Netherlands.

With wind generation set to rise this week, UK flows to the continent could start to pick up to the point where the UK becomes a net exporter.

This seems good but I believe there is a carbon border adjustment mechanism coming into force from the EU which would mean we have to pay more to export the gas.