Palladium30 Mar 2023 15:28
Snippet from Precious Mining Weekly full article download from link below.
Balancing these demand and supply changes, we expect to see a market deficit of 631koz this year. This is a similar magnitude to the deficits seen last year (625koz) due to similar year-on-year growth in supply and demand. Factoring in the above short-term drivers, macroeconomic picture and fundamentals, we arrive at an annual average of $1,690 for 2023, up several hundred dollars on current levels. This includes the price peaking above this level at a high of $1,980, failing to recuperate a $2,000-handle before eventually falling back. With two years of annual deficits totalling 1.3Moz, the recent price weakness seems counter-intuitive. However, we believe that similar factors as those discussed in last weekβs Weekly, which focused on the impact on the rhodium price, are at play for palladium. Automakers currently hold an abundance of PGMs, as they bought a larger quantity last year than they utilised. This overstocking has left the industry with an unusually long position in palladium, undermining their near-term demand requirements. Furthermore, this outcome has led to gloomier investor sentiment. Adding to investorsβ concerns is the awareness of projected surpluses in the coming years.
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