Member Info for ramerci73

I am not surprised by the time lag. You may be correct in terms of depression of prices. But I see that as a driving factor for M & A activity. To survive a depressed market it is often favourable to join forces with a competing firm. Depressed prices also creates a buying opportunity for cash rich firms. But in exploration companies Due Process is a huge time waster. Remember, we weren't concentrating on a merger/takeover, we were trying to replace a certain member of management. So any takeover move has more or less taken us by surprise.

That's a hoot. Yes my bad. I posted the wrong initials. But it's funny that you mention a merger there too. All merger talk at the moment. My suspicion is that we are looked at by a medium sized operation. Certainly bigger than we are but nowhere near as big as BP, Shell or BG. All indications suggest as much. I think we will have news this week of some kind. Not sure yet exactly what it is. Could be just a general update or finally the results of tests on our last gas find in quantifiable figures. But it may also be much more interesting.......will wait to see exactly.

Do you mean what about Shell and the BP group?, or what about Shell and the BP group? Perhaps you mean what about Shell and the BP group. If you are putting your emphasis on the latter part of the question I assume you are enquiring if the combined group of Shell and BP might take an interest in buying us out? I doubt that we even register their radar. But stranger things have happened. Still I think it's a fancyfull idea.

3 years with Shell and BP and who knows how long the actual closure will take. New York Times reported that the Shell-BP merger was actually in train since May 2008. But Times Magazine says 3 years so it might have been a case of initial interest shown and then actual takeover/merger talks in 2012. Either way I have never seen a takeover finalised within a year, never. Not at this level anyway. When millions are involved them the i's have to be dotted and the t's need crossing.

How long do you think it takes for a takeover to finalise? In the case of ENOC and Dragon oil a few years back when ENOC made their original approach, the due process took 11 months and no firm offer was made for an additional two months. In the case of Shell and BP it has been three years. So seven months is not a long time in the grand scheme of things.

The current drilling program is going ahead. There is no risk in assessing relative strength of a combined entity. In fact a merger with a larger cash rich/ reserve poor company may prove the catalyst for growth (look at GKP and the way they have grown), and having all of the ducks lined up for a merger that may/ may not fall through just simplifies the process in the event of the other company not going through with proposed merger. In any event, an approach has to be confirmed and shareholders informed first. The shareholders may not agree with the offer. A lot of our bigger holders will not sell out for a price less than they paid, so any offer may just end in a press release stating that our company was approached by a third party. (I think if this happens then it advertises the company and invites speculative investors so it is a good way to build SP).

Two million shares wouldn't push any of the current treshold of transparency. But you could be correct. If a big player is consolidating their position on this share, we should notice increased activity over a period. For an outside company to force a takeover they need to convince more then two of our big holders to part with their shares. If this is currently happening then we will know shortly. I suspect strongly that something is afoot. Not based on current share activities, rather on the other developments within the company over the past few months. Certainly the pedigree of the recent recruits suggests an aggressive build towards either a merger or a takeover. Lack of management share purchase (management precluded from purchasing shares in event of merger/takeover under insider trading regulations) hints at Manchester & A activity. Move to one single broker suggest the same but indicates that something is at a critical stage. If you move to a single broker it simplifies takeover/merger process and therefore speeds up the process. Finally because of our particular profile (rich in reserves, diversified production and development fields, cash generating with existing and expanding business, loan facilities established and funding for additional projects up to 2017, undervalued on paper possibly by a multiple of 3, though some suggest a fair share price would be 40p based on existing reserves), then COP certainly stands out among other exploration and development companies.

People can't say that they were not expecting it to happen. As shown by the couple of mega mergers lately, the oil and gas industry is consolidating while prices are low. A quarter of all companies with good quality reserves are going to be bought out. Throw production into the mill and you can see why COP becomes a very attractive "small cap" buyout.

I suspect that the next news we will receive will relate in some way to an approach by a third party to buy COP. I also suspect that we should have positive news regarding volume of last Gas discovery.

A quote from the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) relating to the merger between Shell and BG Group: In the worldwide hunt for energy, Shell has now made a £47bn bet that buying access to new reserves is quicker and easier than finding them itself. Its exploration project in Alaska, for example, has yet to discover any recoverable reserves, whereas this deal immediately increases Shell's oil and gas reserves by 25%. I think this will focus the thinking of a lot of energy companies......

Yes, sorry about that long treaty. I am retired and so I intend to write a great deal more than is required. I did like your answer by the way, to both comments. In short, just because the price dropped does not mean that something isn't going on in the back rooms. All similar stock suffered price drops as a result of residual market movement. Oil/gas have seen more than 60% drop in since September. That is the biggest factor hampering SP at the moment. All other indicators in terms of COP are actually suggestive of some type of merger/takeover plan. Stop, stop, stop.......off I go again.

Agreed, Stockdale has a great turn of phrase. Ramerci

You appear to be ignoring the obvious. In this current climate there are so many easy targets. Dare I mention Dragon oil again. How many takeover targets had it singled out in the past year before itself becoming a target? And to say you are ignoring the obvious is not intended to be a slight on you, rather a suggestion that you look at the current climate for M&A activity. COP will sustain the current market conditions because it still has sufficient cash generating production as well as a loan structure. Other similar sized businesses with similar cash reserves will not sustain current market conditions because they do not possess the oil and gas reserves that COP has. Therefore COP becomes an attractive opportunity for other cash rich/reserve poor companies in terms of a joint operation. That is one scenario. Secondly for the bigger companies, they will more likely concentrate on buying out other bigger companies as a primary objective to decimate competition and will start to look at smaller "fish" as a secondary stage buying opportunity later when all of the medium/big fish have consumed their fill. After all our reserves of oil and gas; are small in terms of the volumetric reserves normally associated with the bigger players. While oil and gas are so cheap, the bigger players may not see a huge advantage in buying smaller diversified oil and gas fields because of production/volume ratios. This may soon change given the associated troubles in the middle east which could cause the price of oil and gas to rise significantly. But ultimately it will more likely be a mid sized cash rich company, building a diversified portfolio that will see potential in buying us out. Because while our current reserves and cash position may not appeal as much to a larger corporation because of other opportunities currently available, now is the ideal time for a growing middle sized company to build and establish itself. I should also remind you that even if another company has already expressed interest in our company, the board does not have to inform us, the shareholders until it has been made official. Secondly, there is a formal system involved in a takeover or merger called "due process" which can require certain conditions to be met before a "firm offer" is made. One of those conditions could be "a single broker" as has recently been established with COP. This speeds up the due process procedures and also aides the internal financial audit. That is my view on the current situation anyway. I think we are facing down a takeover as we speak.

In the event of a takeover, having just one broker to deal with makes things a whole lot easier.....just saying that the pieces are all falling into place.

Yes, we still await the official results for the last big gas find. We have not yet received official results on the size of the gas field, only that it was sizable. I would hope that official results show that it is indeed a large find to augment our current reserves. And that too would make the company worth more in terms of a takeover.

Not really sure what you mean to be honest. September 2014 was six months ago. I bought 700k shares, I didn't dump any. I never said I bought or sold anywhere near 2 million shares. Perhaps I have been misquoted?

That depends on a couple of things things. 1) Will COP survive the global dip in oil and gas prices long enough to benefit from the upswing when it happens? (The answer to this is that COP have secured enough financing to survive with the current drilling (10 more drills) program until 2017, additionally they are producing and selling gas and oil which should offset most of the running costs and generate some cash besides. 2). Will COP be taken over by another exploration company? (The answer to this question is that it is highly likely. On paper at least COP represents excellent value. It has proven reserves and a cash generating business. It is also an ideal time for bigger operators to take advantage of depressed company share prices. Also, going by the historical expertise of the most recent appointments to COP management board, they are specifically experienced in mergers and acquisitions. Finally, none of the management team have bought sold shares or released share sensitive information recently; two actions that they would be precluded from in the event of takeover negotiations which ordinary shareholders do not have to be informed about until an official offer is made. 3) Are COP likely to make any new discoveries in the near future? It is a very realistic possibility based on the standing 10 drill project. In fact, even one big find could push up share price significantly. 4) Is there anything else that could affect share price? Answer: Yes. We are still waiting on the final results of the last discovery which was initially described as "significant". If this discovery does indeed turn out to be significantly sizable i.e, large enough to double our current reserves at least, then we should expect to see a significant jump in share price. Finally to answer your question "will we ever see 23p again??" . That depends on the chronological order in which the above events unfold. But in my view I do think that this share price does not reflect the current value of the company. I think we should be priced somewhere in the region of 12.5p-16p at the moment, even given the last two dusters. And with any good news as outlined above would expect share price to increase up to a potential 30p, even without finding any new gas/oil. So potentially with everything going in our favor, oil/gas prices recover, we get confirmation that our last find was really big, we discover one, two or three new fields etc then one could only speculate as to the growth in SP. Realistically though. Oil and gas need to recover somewhat for SP to rebound. Either that or we make another significant oil discovery. The takeover option will push up SP but that will be out of our hands and we will not see any real benefit from it other than short term SP increase. But certainly not 23p from where we stand. Rmaerci

There is one very obvious element to this equation that gives me confidence. The management team have not bought any shares themselves for the past six months. Even after our last gas fund and to some that might appear strange. However to me that is a strong indication of takeover process. A company's BOD must preclude themselves from the aquisition, disposal or consolidation of shares in the company for the duration of the takeover process. They should neither purchase nor sell stock in the company. To do so could subject them as a whole or individually to legal proceedings for insider trading. Neither should they inflate/deflate the share value through communications to shareholders or potential shareholders. All of these conditions currently exist with COP momentarily. I called the ENOC/Dragon Oil attempted takeover correctly for the same reasons. Almost exactly the same series of events, except that 9 months previously ENOC had consolidated it's share position. Ironically I see Dragon Oil as one of our potential suitors.....

I have invested very heavily here over the past nine months. I was betting that things would improve and that a new BOD would change things for the best. A bit of bad luck with the past two bores has dampened my spirit but I will remain invested. Anyway if I wanted to quit now I would have to take a further haircut on SP because of the number of shares I need to offload. I will be patient.

Yes. I am still holding. But I am seriously disappointed by the last two news releases.