Member Info for ramerci73

Today's announcement speaks volumes to me about yesterdays offering. I really don't know what to say.

Anybody any idea of what this might do to share price? I am concerned to say the least. But there might be a positive aspect to share dilution that I do not know about. Will wait to see in tomorrows market. Hope no negative effect.

Irish news papers and Oilier magazines are running the story of the latest update from Brian and co. Only the astute oil investors will read into the significance of the Kurdistan testing program. Most ordinary investors will read what is presented which is a piecemeal account of what Brian said in the information update. Although they all mention the testing and planned budget outlay, most of the emphasis is on a second drill in Kurdistan and the weather delay of the first drill and production levels. Should Kurdistan bear fruit then we have a second production base and the knock on effect on Share value will be significant. Davy (PCI’s staunchest supporter) generally see this knock on effect in the region of +60p/share minimum, but cautiously state that if flow rates are high then this figure will rise significantly. So if there is a successful outcome to the current drill (and hints are positive) then we should see some upward movement in share price.

7C to €3.40 wow. And now they are back to 0.26C. I really would not be reccomending a share succeptiable to so much fluctuation. In fairness BKIR have done well over the past year or so. But I think it will be interesting to see what happens when their annual report comes out this year. I think the Central bank of Ireland had some nasty things to say about BKIR reporting methods and their accounts. Lets see if Irish regulation stands up to be counted in this case.

There are always better places to be invested. It’s a matter of perspective. There is an old Yiddish saying that goes “the best way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket". But you rarely see big investors sitting on a stack of money in the park. The parents of my son-in-law were invested in Allied Irish Bank back in 2005 and continuously advised me that it was the only place to make money. For a few years they were right and attended family occasions with a contemptuously smug look on their faces. They frequently asked me if I had invested yet. I hadn’t. I simply didn’t have the interest or time to invest in stock because I felt that it required a deep study of the investment target, a study of the market and a study of my own finances. Emotionally I was not in form for any of the above since my wife had just passed away. I was over in Ireland again visiting my both of my daughters (in Dublin and Galway). My Daughter in Dublin had just bought a house and I was invited to the house warming celebration. My son-in-law for whom I have the greatest respect quietly asked me not to mention anything about the stock market to his parents. Apparently they had lost their savings during the “bursting of the bubble”. I am fully aware that I might lose what I have invested, it could happen. I am also aware that I could make back a multiple of my investment by staying calm and being cautious. I am in the lucky situation where I have invested what I consider to be “affordable” should a loss occur. I am retired on a pension with no mortgage. My two children are adults, and are both financially independent from me. I have many interests and many good friends. Investing for me is a pastime and a hobby. And, yes I enjoy it more than I thought I would. When I sold my BKIR shares I made a small profit. I enjoyed it. When I sold my Lloyds shares I made a profit. I have invested more money in this project because I think I will make a greater profit here. With bank shares there is usually little risk, small profit. Exploration shares are the reverse. I suspect many of the investors here feel the same. February is just around the corner. I wouldn’t want to have sold out just on the verge of something really big. Even if I made a profit on my sale I would feel that I had made a loss.

In short ranger; many investors will crow all about shares where they made money. Few of them will tell you about the times when they lost money. Just look at todays trading. Total buyers market. Buying in bulk on the back of "some" good news (Kurdi results), when others are selling because of a slight delay (completion date end of Feb). I wont say that this share will go through the roof but it certainly has the potential to.

I've hear people saying the same thing about BKIR ranger. In fact I have never been in a share where the BOD were considered saints. Even Apple's BOD were berated when share price didn't do what they said would happen, but when the share price rose 4% the following day everyone was singing praises.

Looks like a buyers market at the moment. Typical feeding on the fears of others. "Buy when those around you are in fear, Sell when they are feeling very brave" We should be buying now....

Following on from my initial reading of today’s RNS it is worth noting from Davy's prospective on the matter is a positive one. That's no big surprise you might say, but in reading through the RNS following Davy's guidance there are some phrases used which can be easily overlooked. “Shakrok well in Kurdistan Region of Iraq drilling ahead at 1818 m in Jurassic; testing programme anticipated” It is not a throw away comment. It suggests that mud logs are indicating something worth looking more closely at. And following on from Davy’s assessment this is a positive note. No news on the full listing in this RNS. This is disappointing. I would have liked to have seen something relating to full listing in the update. I know the idea is to give a succinct snapshot of business but there needs to be another more detailed update on certain issues. There are lots of positives too to be taken from this RNS, despite the fact that it suggests that there will be Algeria is still not fully signed off. I know that due process takes a heck of a long time but we were told that this would be complete back in 2013. Still I will be delighted to see this agreement formalised in writing sooner rather than later. I am also happy with the proposed schedule of expenditure and also that we have received some money from Egypt. I agree with nasaresearch that the language and wording used in this e-mail has no sense of immediacy about it. It does present as a laid back approach to revealing important details. While it contains positive sentiment and highlights an overall “moving forward” message, it does so in a prolonged and meandering way. Some might call it waffle. If the points of interest were presented more succinctly it would read better but the fact is that it sounds like it was put together in a hurry late at night. Frankly, I am not surprised by the angry reaction. I hope that we get more information regarding Full listing very soon. It is an obvious omission and needs to be corrected one way or another.

I was looking around to see what people were saying about this mornings RNS. There are mixed views ranging from excitment to frustration. Here is an interesting view from Davy's Stock Brokers in Dublin. Operational update and production outlook DAVY VIEW The news that a testing programme is anticipated on Petroceltic’s first Kurdistan well is likely to be greeted positively by investors. The imminent award of the FEED study in Algeria, and recent improvements in cash recovery from its Egyptian operations, maintain the positive tone. While production in 2014 will be lower than earlier anticipated, there are solid operational reasons for this and it does not point to any acceleration of field decline. Busy first six months The Kurdistan well on the Shakrok structure has hit the Jurassic carbonate target as anticipated and testing of this zone is expected. Drilling continues into the deeper Triassic, with total depth expected in late February. The second Kurdistan well (Shireen) will spud in February. The FEED study for Ain Tsila will be awarded in the first quarter with a gas sales agreement also expected in the first quarter. Amendments required to bring Sonatrach onto the PSC are near completion following which official ratification will be sought. Elsewhere, exploration will continue offshore Romania with two wells likely in 2014. Exploration will also take place in Egypt, both by way of drilling and possible additional licence consolidation. Production confirmed for 2013 and first look at 2014 profile Production from the company’s Egyptian and Bulgarian operations is confirmed at 25,200 boepd in 2013 (Davy: 25,000 boepd). Guidance for 2014 is set at 20,000-22,000 boepd .This is lower than we have built into our forecasts (24,500 boepd) and reflects a couple of important factors: forecast downtime as gas compression is reconfigured in Bulgaria and a reduced infill work programme in Egypt. This work results in lower throughput, unrelated to a normal production decline. The Egyptian work profile is a result of a budget based on an Egyptian debtor payment schedule, before recent material improvements. Lower expenditure expected Net debt at present is $246m ($213m at end-2013). With reduced work in Egypt and Bulgaria, the annual budget for the year has been set at $130m – $100m if the initial funding from the Sonatrach farm-in is facilitated through timely ratification. This compares to $174m in 2013. Egyptian receivables ($80m) have improved sharply over the last few months with the repayment programme now back on track for a July 2014 normalisation. Value argument intact With short-term positive catalysts from drilling, progress in Algeria and ongoing reduction of the Egyptian debtor position, we think that the stock should continue to appreciate. Our sum-of-the-parts argument sees a value of 513 p per share.

Expecting RNS this week re Egypt, Algeria, full listing etc.

I wonder if that means our chance of finishing 2013 above £1.70 is dashed. Certainly I and I am sure a lot of you thought that Sundays news would have a very positive effect on SP. I noticed GKP saw a 4p rise in SP today and as some people have pointed out there are many similarities between PCI and GKP. Certainly they share in interest in Kurdistan, but they also are not fully listed and have recently suffered the indignation of court cases. So when their SP rises as a direct result of news of a political breakthrough in Iraq you could be forgiven for thinking that our SP would follow suit. But did it.......did it hell, in fact it did the unpredicted and fell slightly in value. So why did this happen? Who knows? Certainly we are not in a position to say at present given that all of the prime indicators are pointing in a positive direction. I expect an RNS next week. I actually expect lots of positive news and information. I am almost afraid to write that because as sure as night follows day the unpredictable will happen. We all have opinions about PCI. We have certain expectations. We expect that at some point pieces will start to fall together and SP will rise dramatically. There is an almost universal acceptance that our share price is grossly undervalued. Will 2014 be a transformational year? I am willing to take the gamble that it will be. Certainly we have positioned our exploration projects in areas with huge potential. High risk but with huge potential.

Almost all oil companies operating in Kurdistan and listed have enjoyed a lift in share price following news of the Iraq/Kurdish energy agreement yesterday. There was one notable exception, PCI the Irish independent oil and gas company saw a slight decline in share price. Considering PCIs imminent completion of one of it's planned exploratory oil wells. PCI are said to be more than two-thirds of the way to reaching their target depth and as such it is far too early to draw any conclusions either way on the viability of the project to which they are partnered with Hess Corporation and KRG.

Guess I was wrong..

While I expected little or no prise rise on the news that discussions were taking place, I do expect a positive response on the affirmation of a deal being reached, backed by us government. Investment rarely roots in rumor but sprouts well on positive news. Lets see what happens next....

http://kirkuknow.com/english/index.php/2013/12/u-s-welcomes-maliki-barzani-meeting/

http://kirkuknow.com/english/index.php/2013/12/baghdad-erbil-reach-agreement-over-kurdistan-oil-export/

Sunday, 29 December 2013 10:52 altaltShafaq News / Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) announced on Sunday its plan to build two new pipelines to transport oil from region to the Turkish ports to be completed within two years , noting that the research estimates that the fields in the region stores more than 60 billion barrels of oil . The economic security adviser in Kurdistan Region , Bioar Khansi told " Turkish Anatolia in news briefed by “Shafaq News” that “ oil fields spread in many parts of Kurdistan Region contain oil reserves that may increase to 60 billion barrels , pointing out that the reserve is documented so far and has reached more than 45 billion barrels . He added that if the areas of expanding oil exploration and increase the number of companies to do surveys in this area, it is expected to increase oil reserves to 60 billion barrels. He added that if Kirkuk province and other disputed regions have returned its relation to Kurdistan, the oil reserves will be doubled of course. On the companies operating in the fields of the region, Khansi said that 52 international companies are working in the oil field in Kurdistan region , noting that the companies are working in depths may increase to 3,700 meters under the ground . He stated that these companies have assured through its work that lasted for 5 years that there is a reserve of more than 45 billion barrels . Regarding oil production and export in the current phase , Khansi pointed out that the oil companies are now working within 14 oil fields which is only secured to extract 300 thousand barrels per day , adding that the region includes 46 oil sites . Khansi predicted that with 2020 , the export capacity from the fields of Kurdistan Region will rise to two million barrels per day

I would 100% agree that the merger was a good "thing" for Petroceltic. I think it highlights the forward thinking of the BOD. Alone we would be struggling to finance Algeria and sitting on our thumbs during the long slow process. Also knowing how desperate we would have been for money, the Algerians would have bargained on a different footing to our loss. Let their be no doubt the merger has and will serve us very well now and in the future.

Yes, it seems to me that PCI should have some kind of insurance against such a delay. I have no idea if the company operating the rig shoulder some of the cost I.e. loss of business on PCIs part.