Member Info for ramerci73

I would be much happier with a slow and steady climb in SP. Todays news is good and bad. First it is good because we now have more money in hand, with more to come. Bad because to get this money we had to accept a significant haircut on what is owed. I suspect a discount of 25%. However, it is also possible that our management team have also negotiated better conditions for our remaining assets and also the provision of a further license arrangement in Egypt in the future. And yes, this news does say a lot about the improvement in the state of play in Egypt. So three RNS's this week and one three weeks ago, all positive and all good news. When stability returns to the pricing of the Oil and Gas sector (and some big players think it might have reached its bottom) then the incentive to invest in companies like this will quickly return. Just a gamble on when prices bottom out really. Those who bet on or close to bottom will win big, and those late to the game will win too but not as much. Finally, I do expect more good news soon. How soon (I suspect it will take three-five weeks to get results back from the new find) I don't know, but I do expect results from our new find to be bigger than initial tests indicated. And I am saying that on the back of the language used in describing the find. It was very positive and also indicitive of excitement. Looking back over past reports the language used was always marginally positive and even cautious. This find has sparked something of a surprise. Fingers crossed then...good luck all. Ramerci

I think the management team now look like a very value orientated outfit. Looks like the drive for value is on. Let's hope we achieve the 800% plus increase in value obtained in Dana.

I borrowed these comments from iii discussion forum because I think they are to the point. They were written by a person named HUB, who appears to be well versed in O&G. And importantly for me he does not make too many comments though he has been a member for a while. Have a read: anyone pointing the finger at Circle's BoD's being a tad light in 2014 might have had a point. But in 2015, that's no longer a cause for concern.The Board has been strengthened and the added experience should start to take effect immediately. It's tough out there at present - turbulent of times for the O&G sector, and you need quality staff to see you through these periods. If PCI was on Dragon's wish list, Circle will certainly be on a few wish lists too. When M&A kicks off (and it will) Circle should do very well indeed. It's the companies with decent production, lowish debt and sizable exploration opportunities that will be sought after. And you need a strong BoD's to ensure you get top dollar. HUB

Perhaps because a company cannot appoint a person to a position without written acceptance from the aplicant.

These waters are too cold for the big movers. Fast players are making upwards of four percent per day on CFD's just on the back of daily swings alone. Only long term investment will lay money out on the long line with so much uncertainty about. However there are some signs that we may have reached close to the bottom of the curve, if not the bottom. That might mean a few weeks with prices at or around this level +/- a few percent. It could even mean a month or two. But at least a sense of certainty should return to the market before COP share price returns to representative value levels; circa 20-28p normal trade. Anyway, there is still a considerable deal of fluctuation in the market for CFD's so in the short term, in terms of commodities anyway, that is where a quick buck can be made or lost at the moment. When things settle down then this will certainly be one of the bolt holes of the savy investors. There has certainly been adequate information about it online and in the printed press. I am not expecting SP to reach 20p by end of February, but I would be very surprised if it was not at or around 14p by then. And yes, if in the mean time we have drilling in Oman, you could add 0.5-0.75p to that figure. But if the new gas discovery turns out to be bigger than estimated then you can add a further 0.8p for every multiple of the original estimation. So that's it in a nutshell. By the way I didn't do any background research on the news appointments. Suffice to say that on a cursory perusal of their experience they appear to be very well suited to Circle Oil and Gas. Tomorrow is another day. GLA. Ramerci

http://www.economist.com/news/international/21627642-america-and-its-friends-benefit-falling-oil-prices-its-most-strident-critics

Excellent post. Thanks.

There is no conspiracy.....it's simply the nature of trading shares. The mm's have nothing to gain at these trade volumes. Seriously, just relax and take a break from the forum for a while. You have already highlighted a few of the attractive features of this share. In fact you have done some sterling work. Do you know something.....I am wrong. Keep up the good work. Perhaps leave the notion that some third party is responsible for manipulating COP share price by disguising buys as sells and so forth, but keep posting links and other information. Sometimes I miss my meds and simple things irritate me. That's my fault. So if I come accross as gruff, ignore me. Good work. Keep it up.

It is an excellent investment vehicle. That is true. I wouldn't count on money from Egypt any time soon, though I do think we will get paid. I think we will get a fraction of what "we" are owed this year, another fraction next year and the balance the following year. Regarding Oman, I think you are correct in your estimation that SP will rise when we do start drilling there. It is natural to be frustrated by promises that don't materialize. I was very frustrated by the board of Petroceltic and the lack of action. First there were promises of drilling programs and then a promise of a full listing. The straw that broke the camals back was the way the takeover was handled or mishandled as was the case. Very poor leadership. I think that once the market for gas and oil stabilizes, SP will soar.

No it does not indicate manipulation at all. It does however demonstrate a slight misunderstanding of the current market forces at work on your part. Look into CFD's and try picking up on some of the momentum factors associated with futures. Up until very recently (last couple of hours) at the moment all indicators were strongly pointing to a continuing downward trend in both oil and gas stocks. The knock-on effect of this is that energy producers and exploration companies also suffer drop in share price. The big bet here is to correctly predict when the market will bottom out. The Saudis say that they can go as low as $20 a barrel but realistically they would be cutting their own throats at that price. The Oil prices collapsed 32 percent since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to maintain its output target on Nov. 27, amid signs Saudi Arabia and other members are determined to let North American shale drillers and other producers share the burden of reducing an oversupply. In other words The OPEC gang want to maintain market share and not lose it. Last night the state-owned producer, known as Saudi Aramco, raised prices for all its crudes in Asia and cut all of them for Europe and most in the U.S. In other words it now realises that prices are going down too fast. Is now the time to buy into oil futures? Some people are thinking that oil and energy prices cannot go down much further.

News that BG Group has been paid US$350mln of arrears by Egypt has provided a boon to the firms invested in the country. It brings the total owed to BG to around US$920mln. In November the country’s oil ministry pledged to repay almost US$5bn of debts accumulated over an uncertain three-year period after the fall of ousted autocrat Hosni Mubarak. The arrears began to accumulate before the revolt, but worsening state finances saw the debts mount while the government diverted gas earmarked for export to meet domestic demand. It is hoped the repayments will help kick start oil and gas exploration and production in the country. The move to wipe the slate clean will have the biggest impact on sentiment which underpins the valuations of some of the smaller firms operating in Egypt such as Circle Oil (LON:COP) and Petroceltic (LON:PCI) here in the UK and Canada’s Sea Dragon Energy (CVE:SDX). It is a boon for oil stocks otherwise burdened by weakened oil prices.

LONDON (Alliance News) - BG Group PLC on Friday said it has received a further payment of around USD350 million from the Egyptian government to repay outstanding debts to the company. BG said the new payment reduces its domestic receivables balance in Egypt to around USD920 million. It follows another USD350 million payment made to the company by the Egyptian government in October. The Egyptian government has raised funds to help repay debts that it owes to the oil and gas sector in the wake of the disruption caused by the Arab Spring protests and subsequent political unrest. The company said it has been impacted by the reduction in liquefied natural gas exports from Egypt, but its currently investigating options to increase the supply of gas and is working with the Egyptian government to resolve its outstanding receivable balance.

Are you guys going to comment on every single trade? :)

I would have expected news regarding new CEO. I expect that that will be next RNS.

News Release 2 January 2015 Egyptian government pays US$350 million to BG Group Following the commitment from the Egyptian government to repay outstanding debts to the energy industry, BG Group plc (LSE: BG.L), a world leader in exploration and LNG, has received a further payment equivalent to US$350 million. This reduces the company's domestic receivables balance in Egypt to around US$920 million. While the Group has been impacted by the reduction of LNG exports from Egypt, the company continues to investigate options for increasing the supply of gas and is working with the government on resolving the outstanding receivable balance.

So why are your pockets getting excited? Pure speculation? Or did you actually cotton on to the finer detail? Now look into Morocco.......and now look into the background of our new CEO.

Realistically, you do need to look at the market in general when you are making an assessment on value of a company. OK, we are a bit of a rare gem when it comes to value on hand. We do have some very attractive assets. But you simply cannot factor in unknowns into your calculations. Egypt is going to pay some of the outstanding debt to oil companies, that is 100% true. But there is no guarantee that we will receive any money in the first quarter. Indeed they may give some companies preferential treatment and we might only get a fraction of what is owed this year. Secondly, investors always think in terms of positives and sometimes exaggerated positives at that. Some of our most recent discoveries have not been quantified and when you talk about them you assume that they are going to be much much bigger than the initial report indicated. This is an unknown quantity so you have to take a sensible numeric representation when using this information to form the basis for a value calculation. OK, the final value may be much bigger but you can't just assume this. For me the new CEO is excellent news. I took the trouble last night to read into him and he appears to be a very capable man. He has some excellent experience in brokering takeover deals which in itself tells me that a takeover is on the cards. This is a point which will not be missed by experienced traders and should lead to some advance in SP next week. But you guys do make some interesting points. I need to look back on Morocco and Oman.

Why does everyone think it is going to be Dragon oil? Just because they showed interest in Petroceltic. There are 27 companies with the required cash reserves required to buy this company in our fields of operation. Three of them I think are likely candidate s for a buyout. I haven't included Dragon because I think that at the moment they are looking at another company. But they might turn there attention to us I admit. The reporting last night was much better in my opinion, especially the links and research included. If a new player does get involved then we will hear about it through RNS. I think that if another company does want to buy us out they will target our major shareholders first. To build up a holding through direct market intervention would push up share price and alert the market of intention. I do think we are going to be taken over, in fact I am convinced of it. However I hope that our major holders and management team are not willing to sell below 29p per share (based on current production level and not knowing size of new discoveries) or far in excess if the market recovers for oil and gas to 2010 prices.

My comment was not patronisation, simply firm hard fact. There are too many people why like to back slap contributors no matter what they post. Sellisforcowards has posted some very crucial information in the past, but in my opinion he often overdose's the board with information and it sometimes appears like the hard sell option. Sure he can do as he wishes but I was just saying that in his own self interest it might be wiser not to continuously update the board every time he has a feeling, or when SP advances or recedes. It is not necessary. He is obviously invested in the share both emotionally and financially. He needs to divorce emotion from his decision making and think with his head, not his heart. Otherwise he will continue to post desperate sounding messages more likely to frighten would be investors than attract them. Example: a statement purporting that mm's were obviously running out of shares!!!!! Do I need to say any more? Share price fell today a.) because some investors wanted to cash in and take profits before year end b.) Oil prices continue to decline c.) Market uncertainty. Share price will rise again when a.) Oil prices (gas prices) rise b.) On positive news from company c.) We receive a takeover bid d.) Market sentiment improves e.) Egypt pays outstanding debt to our company f.) We win a new lucrative contract etc. Believe it or not, not too many investors read this forum, they are much too busy looking at more factually accurate sites. So no matter what you write here it will have very little bearing on SP if any. So it is with honest heartfelt consideration that I make my points. By the way I now realise that I am one of those big investors that you guys were talking about before. I would never have considered myself a major investor anywhere, even in BKIR where I have a reasonable investment. But in my opinion my investment here is money well invested. Not for many of the reasons you have alluded to but because I feel that my time spent researching this company has given me confidence. I could have bowed out with a very healthy 10% profit but I think that I will do better by staying invested here for a few months. But that's my opinion, and like everyone I have one.

Can I just say something to you that I hope you won't take as an insult? You do a lot of great work posting information on here and staying positive, but you appear to underestimate the intelligence of most traders by sometimes posting the obvious. The people who might cause SP to move one way or the other understand all too well the vagaries of share trading and how represented sells/buys are often misrepresented in fact. By posting the obvious you understate your own position and appear desperate to contradict immaterial information. The LSE's own website states clearly that the published figures may not be relied upon. I only say this because your propensity to explain that all is well with this share might actually put people off investing here. And while your intentions are obviously good the net effect might be negative. So my advice, and you can take it or leave it, is to give investors some intellectual credit. Most investors do their own research and anyone who does that will see the obvious value in this share. So again. You are a great contributor to this board and you have a very positive outlook in general so please don't take this as an insult. Just take it into account next time you consider explaining the obvious. Thanks and no malice intended.