Member Info for ramerci73

Great news. A CEO with great experience

I think you hit the nail on the head with your marketing remark, but share price has recently been depressed more by market variables more than marketing. For example, the collapse in oil and gas prices since last November (and I know we have contracted prices for our delivery which insulates us from these changes, but perception to the average Joe Soap is what moves share price). On paper we look highly discounted given our reserves status. Professor Green has not exactly coated himself in glory either as CEO. But it is now generally accepted that the new recruits have been brought in with an agenda. They certainly have a M&A pedigree given their historical experience. If results are as good as expected, we could see a significant increase in share price next week just based on full year report. We also have LAM-1 results or news coming "soon", since we are currently 16 days into a drill which is expected to take between 14-20 days to target depth. In short, with fair news on both fronts we should expect share price to increase up to between 15-17p. Then with a re-rating based on additional production coming on-line we could see a share price rise up to around 18.5-19p by July. And then we have additional drilling results etc, etc. So all depends on results and drilling results. 19p by July is my guess. I know it is slightly optimistic but that is my gut feeling.

Yes indeed. However it is worth mentioning that Circle is already producing quite a substantial amount of gas in other areas, hence the reliability of its income stream. We also have an income stream from oil but I can't say how much of our income that accounts for. Suffice to say not a huge amount in comparison to our gas produce.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/circle-oil-plc-replace-soco-150043226.html Circle Oil (LSE: COP) has risen almost 40% since early April, and it will publish its 2014 results on 1 June: you may do well to buy its shares before results are out, perhaps in place of SOCO (LSE: SIA) and Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE: GKP) in your portfolio... here's why: Circle Oil First off, I would never invest a penny in these kind of shares unless my portfolio was properly diversified. Also worth bearing in mind is that I rarely argue in favour of smaller oil companies these days, as most of them are not suitable for value investors, given that their risk profiles are hard to model. Circle Oil bears the hallmarks of a value proposition, however. To start with, it boasts a strong track record with regard to revenues and earnings generation, while its cash flow from operation is one element I like. The shares have halved in value since September, when they traded around 27p, and you'd have recorded a 60% loss on your invested capital if you had invested in it five years ago. However, recent news from Morocco -- where well flows were 140,000 cubic metres per day, and production is expected to start at the end of next month -- combine with trading multiples that point to a hard bargain: forward multiples for net earnings and adjusted operating cash flow stand at 7x and 3x, respectively. This is also a bet on political stability in Egypt and Morocco -- did you notice the "Emaar Misr IPO seen as sign of Egyptian resurgence" headline in The Financial Times last week?

Yes that is true. Two large buys yesterday. Lets see what happens today. It will be interesting to monitor volumes over the next few days. As Stockdale points out we are now into day 15 of a drill that is estimated to take between 14-20 days. So potentially we could get news any day now. I am going to say that I suspect that no news is forthcoming from the drill head in the form of rumour or leaks. I am saying that because the share trade volume is low (either buy or sell trades) and although there were some very significant large buy trades yesterday, there was nothing to suggest a sudden rush of interest, i.e, a surreptitious feed of information from the drill site. Neither does the sell volume suggest bad news. I am happy to wait. Full year results out on Monday and with Circle making in excess of 65% (2013/2014 full year report, rough figures. Actual figures likely to be higher) of its income from direct gas sales I suspect the figures are going to be good. While oil and gas prices have declined since last September our contract prices for gas guarantee a stable income and I suspect we will see figures matching last years data, which would not be a bad thing at all. I also suspect that we will formally hear news of future developments.

I don't think (in my opinion) that there is any news from LAM-1 leaking yet. Not enough activity to suggest any leaks anyway. Still early days. By my calculations (if there have been no unforseen problems ) we might see results as early as Tuesday next at best.

This, ladies and gentlemen is the critical time before results become available for LAM1. We are now 8 days into a drill that is expected to reach first target depth within 14-20 days (assuming no delays). It is at this point that market manipulators make their money. It is an easy thing to sell a million shares and force price down, only to double up to two million shares at a lower price. At which point you take advantage of the inevitable rise due to impending results. Everybody expects positive results. That is a natural failing of the human condition. But in reality in exploration less than 20% of exploratory projects yield positive results. Yes that includes wildcat exploration projects so you would expect the figure to be low anyway. But in light of hi-tech exploration many expect positive results every time. With the Lam1 drill we do have a distinct advantage. The LAM1 drill is situated in a known area and is a follow-on drill in a known play with good results yielded from seismic testing. Seismic data indicates the presence of gas at approximately 1232 metres and that is the medium depth target. Total depth target is approx 1,500 metres. But the real positivity comes from the expertise of the drilling coordinators and project managers for COP. Out of seven identified targets over the past two years five have been productive and successful, one was abandoned following drilling difficulties and one was unfruitful. That is well above market average fro an exploration company. Of course if we see the share price jump irrationally, we can assume that news is leaking from the drill head and indications are very positive. Conversely if someone flushes a million shares irrationally we can (at this particular stage) assume an attempt at market manipulation. I am very hopeful and optimistic (that is why I buy and sell shares) so I will be holding on to see what happens on LAM-1. We will deal with the takeover talks after that........ Good luck all. Ramerci

No. I can't say if yesterday's 2 million trade was a buy or a sell. Trade is likely to be slow for a few more days. Smart traders will watch the trade counter for early activity on Morocco drill. Really smart traders will manipulate that activity. Since we don't have eyes on the drill head we are going to be playing the waiting game. But as we get closer to results (circa 12-19 days at best) we will see some speculation. The gamblers will be betting on another positive result. And given our recent string of success, they have reason to be optimistic. Whoever is responsible for interpreting our drill charts has shown an uncanny level of expertise. We did have a recent duster elsewhere (in Oman I think) but besides that drill we have hit positive results in a series of drills. I think target depth for the Lam1 drill is about 1231 metres which should take approx 15 days to drill depending on stratum encountered, with show signs from as shallow as 700 metres. If show signs are positive then we could see a spike in buying activity within 8 days (10 days minus the two just gone) and that depends on how leaky in terms of info the sight is. I am not an expert on this by any means but following on from Bula, African Diamonds, Dragon oil, Petroceltic and now Circle oil I have enough experience to know how the story goes. So why is trade so slow? Well we are at a "pause for consideration" junction at present and we will see slow trade for a few days to come. One good thing though. The drill head never stops. It just keeps turning. So at the weekend it is still grinding through rock while we are turning in our beds. And while the news for COP is more positive than negative any interested suitor must now be seeing more positives and a bigger price tag too. Stay focused and hope for more positive news from the drill-head

Agreed, both management and listed advisors are precluded from making any representation in the event of a takeover or during the due process period, however little relevance their statement might bear. Management & associated advisors must maintain a neutral stance and cannot comment or take action (purchase shares) which could be deemed to be indicative of a particular course of action. However for a third party to enter into negotiations to either buy or merge with COP they would have to tender a bid favourable to at least three of the main shareholders. And once any offer has been officially made we as shareholders must be informed. The courting process can be a long and tedious exercise during which management et Al, need to be cautiously neutral in any communications to the broad share base. This is a significant detail as it is indicative of managements behaviour since October 2014

Has long since been a suspected scenario. However our current rise is most likely due to broad coverage across many different media over past three days. Of course the fact that we have had another successful drill helps and I strongly suspect that our next results (target depth due to be reached within two-three weeks) from Morocco will help further SP.

Holy Moly, Results within two weeks possibly..........hopefully another success story. Lets see if share price sustains the level of growth.

Thanks for the information AJ. Appreciated. That is more positive news.

I am seeing a red flashing light for RNS but no information. Any idea what this anyone?

I know that we have seen an advance over the past few weeks in terms of share price, but I expected a much more positive reaction after yesterdays news. How attractive do we look now to any possible takeover merchants???

Exactly. No new CEO, no share purchase by directors. Only some of the indicators pointing to another direction in terms of trajectory of the company. Why appoint the other senior partners with all of their specialist "takeover" experience unless you have a plan.

I don't know what the play is at the moment in terms of potential takeover/partnership etc but at this price COP shares are a steal. I am surprised that today's news has not had a greater effect.

I am sure all invested parties are aware that over the past month alone that Crude/Brent Crude have regained almost 20% of their price. I attribute most of the recovery in COP share price to this fact. However I am convinced that there is some sort of play going on in the background. I suspect (for reasons I have already mentioned numerous times) that we are on the cusp of either a takeover or a merger. I am delighted to see the update regarding funds and that it has finally been cemented in writing. I think if Crude breaks through the $60 mark amd Brent breaks the $70 mark we will see another step up in share price as confidence and investors return to commodities for profit.

Excellent post there Mr. Greedy. Straight to the heart of the matter.

Hi all. I have just read that Genel Energy (GENL) are on the lookout for another good development opportunity. Have a guess where they are looking!!! Now they are reasonably big fish and I am not sure our operations will actually catch their attention but here's to hoping. Ram

With oil prices advancing now we should see a slight rise reflected in share price proportional to rate of advance (very loosely associated with rate of advancement).