Member Info for ramerci73

Naturally our opinions expressed here are not comparable to official RNS posts. But isn't that the point of discussion boards? When I read back on some of my past opinions I often chuckle too. However better to share an opinion and discuss it's merits, than to reserve opinion and only post to denounce others.

There are rumors that there is more news to come. Judging by the buying patterns over the past week or so it wouldn't surprise me either. I can only assume (and hope) that the next RNS will have a much more positive impact.......

They will shortly be increasing this price to offset capex costs. Currently the turnover at current $10 price returns in excess of 22 million $ per year. They will be bringing an additional production this year to push turnover beyond the $30 million mark. A share for the brave you say......what other peer company enjoys the same guaranteed turnover on gas???? Throwing out vague comments about this company only serves to undermine your own statement.

The only casualties at this price are facts and sense. Circle makes $10 per thousand cubic feet of gas on a contract basis in Morocco. They will shortly

Yes. It doesn't make any sense at all. But I don't know how else to explain the drop. Either we are being short sold or people are just not interested in oil/gas stocks at the moment. It is really annoying though.

The jitters in the market at the moment has more to do with China than anything else. All stocks down across the board. Oil and other commodities also down. Chinese stock markets down 43.7% since June 2nd. All indicators at the moment suggest a slowdown of the of the Chinese economy. Market Today, suggests that the worst is over but the withdrawal symptoms may linger for a few weeks yet. Most other markets have seen a modest decline on the back of expectations that Chinese orders will fall over the next few years and hence oil and commodity prices are down.

He appears to be very negative behind all his bluster. He dresses it up nicely but tends to finish on a negative. I on the other hand don't tend to look at one share and then invest in another share because the two companies are involved in the same industry. I like to look at the books, history and facts of a company before I invest. COP is fundamentally undervalued based on reserves, turnover and production values. With current contracts for gas in Morocco yielding spectacular returns relative to other markets , gas is a great place to be for constant return. Thanks BOD are more responsive now and not taking chances with drilling programmes. Big projects will be farmed out with partners to spread risk. This is an excellent buy in price and someone has noticed that.

Today's single "buy" trade amounts to the largest individual buy over the past 19 months for this share. There is a fact to take home with you. What will be interesting for me over the next few weeks is to see if there will be additional large buy trades. To assume that SP should rise on the back of a single transaction is a rather fundamental mistake.

True of course

Technically a buy of 1% or greater of any share in one go is a positive event. If shares are traded at a lower share price subsequently then that can be considered a negative event. However, trade performance of different shares cannot be accurately predicted. So if you say that you have seen this pattern before and therefore expect a certain outcome, then you may be wrong. High level computer algorithms attempt to predict share performance and at best are only correct less than 30% of the time. I understand what you are saying though, either the shares will increase in value, decrease in value or remain at the same share price. I am hoping that today's 1% buy-in indicates positive news.

I just bought another 5,679,000 shares today.....................with some spare money I had under the mattress😜. I should point out that I am just joking . I wish.........

I forgot to mention that between writedowns and impairment charges most of our debt is explained. Going forward, even with low oil prices we can relatively easily clear debt considering managements new approach. Even at current prices. With Capex down and costs down too, our current production levels should generate 50 million dollars this year. In context we should way outperform our peers.

Correct. However the debt we have sustained over the past year was caused by a combination of factors. 1. Drilling in Oman with negative results 2. Cost overruns on drilling elsewhere 3. Drop in oil prices 4. Impairment charges 5. Cost accrued due to currency fluctuations. Since results were posted management have begun to turn things around. A. By examining the cost base of production and production based management ( field operators etc). B changed risk exposure strategy. C. Pulled out of areas where the risk reward blend was unjustified. D. Added additional reserves through calculated drilling programmes. E. Developed customer base for gas in Morocco F. Begun to seek risk sharing partners for future projects G. Started to streamline risk portfolio.

About why gas is going to be our lifeline. We currently enjoy a revenue stream of $10.12 per thousand cubic feet of gas based on current contract prices. LAM -1 alone with a flow rate ( proven) of 1.9mm (million customers ic feet per day) will bolster revenue by up to $19000 per day, or $6.935 million per year. That's turnover. We see about $ 2-2.5 million of that as profit. Gas is good. Not as lucrative as oil but much cheaper to drill for than oil.

It would be easy to express negative concerns following this mornings RNS however as others have pointed out, management have taken the prudent step (an approach they said they would adopt, caution instead of blind hope) in suspending operatings and moving on to the next target while time can be spent analysing results. Yes I am a bit disappointed too. I was actually expecting positive news. But in light of the approach by management I am also happy. Again by informing shareholders early the new approach mentioned in AGM has been adopted. I will be a long term holder here. I learned a few years ago while invested in African Gold that if you are going to gamble in the stock market you need to inform yourself about the company you are investing in. For me COP has good fundamentals and Good potential. I now feel that the management has significantly improved too. It is still a bet fundamentally, but I have learned that the safe bets such as bank stocks and financials were actually more dangerous in terms to exposure to downturn. I am retired and have two pensions. I am in a very lucky place. The money I have invested I can afford to lose. But I don't like lose so I tend to research my investments. I will remain invested in COP. And like African Gold, Dragon Oil, BKIR and Vodafone I expect to make a profit. It might take another year, maybe two. But I remain convinced that SP will improve. Strategy has changed. Management appear to know what they are doing.

Another find, even a modest discovery in Morocco would not only bolster reserves but it would also be used to develop the service hub of gas delivery. We have a tie-in line for LAM-1 already in place, and although a discovery on our northern permit would require another piped tie-in to service existing contracts it would also be hugely beneficial in terms of servicing other areas as well. Not to mention that we currently enjoy roughly $10 per thousand cubic feet price for our gas, a figure that is set to rise . Gas is cheaper to produce, drill and maintain. Finally, we have a future possible supply link into Europe possibly, given the relatively small geographical distance between Morocco and southern tip. That and the fact that each new linked in discovery has the potential to add an additional $2-4 million to our profit margin. Not the same return as oil I know but lucrative and reliable enough all the same.

No problem J. Basically what happens is this; when drilling starts a target depth is already established. So let's say target depth at 1K metres just for example. An estimate of drill duration can then be predicted eg. 20-25 days. Now in this example it takes 22 days to reach TD and gas is encountered. what happened next is that the drill is removed and the bore is capped as well as cement casing pumped in, although obviously not in exactly that order. A choke is tapped in and flow rates are then measured for a few days to see if pressure remains constant. Results are recorded and a notification is sent first to all drilling partners. Partners meet to agree wording of RNS to respective shareholders etc. The process from capping to informing shareholders can take 30-35 days. No information can be posted until both partners agree on wording. That has more to do with politics than business. That is what I recall from AGM. It is explained in a very basic non-technical way so apologies if I have oversimplified the process.

And I don't mean substantial in terms of potential size of find, I mean substantial in terms of positive reserve potential and production increase. So far we have an 84.4% success rate based on 3d seismic data and drilling experience. In a peer review that puts us in the top 5 percentile relative to scale. Just another unmeasurable factor in the terms of how underrated we actually are as an exploration company.

I have a feeling that we will have positive results from latest Morocco drill. It should have reached target depth about 11 days ago. So once results are confirmed, which should take another 10 -15 days we will have news. Could be substantial.

I can't believe it. TFMonty being nice...... wait a minute, am I still asleep? ??????