Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Sorry malfunction there... to finish

Hi Miller, I thought the exit rate of MBoepd was an equivalent

Exit rate Mboepd = 139, less 7% natural decline =129
129mboepd = 265,000mcfe
265000 x $3.17mcfe = $840,000 hedged
265000 x $4 mcfe = $1.06m unhedged

I don't know why they insist on using mboe for production but mcfe for price

Hi Miller, I believe you have incorrectly added in the NGL and oil revenue when the quoted production is an aggregated equivalent number

Exit rate Mboepd = 139, less 7% natural decline =129
129mboepd =

Hi Miller,
Free cash flow will be something like
Sales = $840m (Hedged) $1,100m (unhedged)
Costs = ($360m)
EBITDA = $480m
Capex: ($40m)
FCF = $440m

Its not really their style to have big increases in the dividend, I think they will aim for slow and steady and maybe a one off special dividend if they can't find a well priced acquisition

I guess it could be Southern Copper... at a MCap of £600m a bid would need to be close to £1bn ...so they could swallow that whole. I'm surprised that this SP is still where it is. The life, the jurisdiction, the free cash generation and the quality of the projects should be exactly what investors are looking for to play the electrification theme and attract more than a 3x EBITDA valuation

While it might make strategic sense would Sandfire have the capacity to make another acquisition so soon after MATSA? Between Spain, Botswana, Black Butte and Australia surely they have the hands full?

I do however think there is a good chance that ATYM is in play just given its low valuation parameters versus the quality and longevity of its assets, but I would be surprised if it was from the Sandfire direction. Assets such as these in safe jurisdictions with well established infrastructure are few and far between and I definitely think intrinsic value is well north of the current SP

I didn't realise there was a 50 page Tamesis note when doing this. Having a look timing is broadly similar, although i was maybe 6 months ahead on final Phase 2 commissioning

https://twitter.com/Afritin_Mining/status/1463115273670643715

I'm really excited to be a holder here, its an incredibly ambitious project but I think Anthony has the energy and ambition to drive it home. It's comforting to know that the current operation will fund all the work and even if they hit only half of the full potential I think this will be a $500m company in a couple of years. My rough expectation regarding timeline and milestones for them to hit the full phase 2 would be as follows:

- define the resource - drilling should be finished by the end of the year with the aim of a JORC compliant lithium and tantalum reserve and expanded tin reserve ... end of 2022
- confirm availability of water - no mean feat given the area is a bone dry desert for much of the year. Might require some bore drilling... I think they mentioned something about a potential desalination plant but they are pretty far from the sea so no idea where the salty water comes from ... end of 2022
- confirm availability of power: grid power is pretty close by but given recent net zero hype they may need to look at a solar plant given they are proposing a 10x expansion end of 2022
- metallurgy/test work - confirm recoverability of by products end of 2022
- feasibility studies will wrap all this up confirming economics and viability of project mid 2023
- funding mid/late 2023
- construction 2023/2024
- production 2025

Maybe it could go a little quicker but the site is bone dry for much of the year and then gets pummelled in the wet season and as they say "This is Africa" so best to be prudent

Anyone have any thoughts on the timeline?

Justfacts agreed it seems like a good appointment but what is between the lines? There aren't any buyers, not a single one, there hasn't been a trade today as of 1140 and the spread to by £5k is 1.57/1.83

Bullish...

https://www.mining.com/web/supply-chain-fragility-sends-tin-price-soaring-to-new-highs/

I never understood the name before, nor did I understand the new name. There is nothing diversified about it, they sell gas! What's diversified about that? They aren't geographically diversified either

It's interesting, sure, but hasn't much to do with the performance of DEC. DEC product mix is less than 10% oil, and most of that is hedged at much lower prices than what we are seeing today. DEC's main future revenue driver is the Henry Hub natural gas forward strip

Yup, good to see some life here, Tosca must be close to sub 3%. A share price recovery is supported by the substantial discount to the industry, almost a 40% discount to Speedy on an EV/EBITDA basis, and impressive free cash flow. The first stop should be 20p, I think to move beyond that we will need to some good news

According to Finncap, Tremor is trading on an EV/EBITDA of around 4x and Its forecast sales growth is 14%.Not imaginary

A bolt on at 4x EBITDA and >20% sales growth... I doubt it

Well got my wish there... what a bloodbath out there

Tremor market cap now less than $1billion...$333m in cash at September (probably closer to $400m now)...EBITDA $150m p.a.... valuation is implying a recession leading to advertising spend and consumer demand falling off a cliff. If I believe those forecasts this is the cheapest stock I own but close to the fastest growth

Algo liquidation, stop losses falling and a lot of capitulation as we enter margin call territory is creating a disconnect between value and price here. That capital raise at over 50% higher than the current price is looking pretty shrewd. Cant see them buying anything but their own shares, there is no better way to use the cash than to buy back shares at this depressed price

True to his word, the chairman bought back those shares he sold last year (and made a small profit for himself)

I couldn't resist a few below 80p. You're right fundamentals are sound but sentiment is sour

Ouch. Not a single holder in this company is in the black. Looks to be a scramble for the door for the 80p crew and anyone else who has had enough. At least all those staff who purchased at 80p are under water now along with the rest of us.

Management have no clue, and/or perhaps don't care, about managing shareholder investor expectations. Time for another vague, perky update and to extend the growth horizon out another year or 2? Without some concrete trading information until April, the limited liquidity and the state of the market I can see this falling to 70p, perhaps lower.

I think a Namibian tin miner would do pretty well under a WW3 scenario