Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

My gripe is the longer they leave it the less efficient the market; the more preferential it becomes to the large shareholders/friends of Numis (who no doubt receive more frequent information) and thus the more prejudicial it becomes to minority shareholders (who know nothing). It is customary to update the market when results are known with reasonable certainty (unaudited if necessary) which ensures a level playing field across all investors. Speedy released its results last year around 55 days after year end while HSS went the full 4 months (more than double the time). Also releasing results now may provide some liquidity to dislodge Tosca once and for all

Thanks. Would like to get an explanation from the company why results coming out 4 months after year end is good business

With tin at record highs and the bloodbath in markets been looking at some prospective tin projects from other companies to check comparisons with ATM. Here is the latest presentation for Elementos (ASX:ELT) which has a tin project in Spain

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/ELT/02449993.pdf

Just some market angst. Topping up on the dip has always worked for me with this stock and I have been doing just that. This is one of a small number of stocks which I plan to hold forever, its total market is huge and they have only just scratched the surface

marcoh the below will take you to the Tamesis report, you might need to register but the report is free and you can follow the link the report for the full note

https://mailchi.mp/cbcde968491b/trr-increased-royalty-payment-4987502?e=39d20a583d

Alfacomp, estimated Ta recovery comes from Tamesis reports. I couldn't remember what the exact number was but thought it was around 20%. Looking at the report now the phase 1 expectation is for 59tpa production with 13tpa recovered metal so 22% recovery leading to $1.3m/year at $100,000/t for phase 1 and $10m after full phase 2 ramp up

It’s a consolation to see those sells well below the bid. The seller is getting shafted to dump those shares, as it should be

Very interesting conversation guys thanks for sharing thoughts and research... I think many on here have ended up by accident, via Autonomy, Taptica or R1. While there have been a lot of nagging doubts over the last few years the performance speaks for itself. And so do the numbers. A $1bn market cap with $500m in cash expected on the balance sheet at the end of this year and double digit revenue and EBITDA growth? It could be doing 25% of the EBITDA and still be undervalued. Either way someone will be proven to very very wrong

At this rate I think they have at least 15m shares to go no? Its dull to watch but in all fairness HSS is up 10% YTD when the FTSE is down 10%. A trading update with some solid numbers might help drum up some liquidity but they don't seem keen on doing that even though we are nearly two months after the year end. Keeping cards close to the chest or just lazy? Last year results came out at end of April which is woeful

Marcoh yes a little too rosy. Those numbers assume 100% metal recovery. Tin is at 75%, while Ta is expected at 15%-20%. That 85g is only 16g of contained metal. Still, in Phase 1 thats 1.5-2m in annual revenue with just a relatively small one off outlay and only the magnetic separation opex. But these are all estimates and based on small samples so we would need to wait for feasibility to see actual results

Vanquish how does this fit in with your takeover theory?

Phase1/Phase 2 production Ta metal recovered will be around 10/100tpa, which at current prices would represent 2% of revenue or a 4% reduction in costs. I suppose if you remove the tantalum it will also marginally improve the grade of the concentrate. Its a nice credit to have and a no brainer in terms of return on investment.

I think the market is really looking for the lithium news to support the battery metals vision when the price is hot

I think they have done a pretty good job of managing expectations. The European expansion is pretty low risk, they aren't going in cold. It will be a drag on earnings though until 2025 I think I remember but we should see some very rapid sales growth

No surprises, they have been guiding towards £5m EBITDA for months now and sales was bang on expectation

i think Harry must write it. Perhaps he is looking at the chart upside down

Revoy my understanding is the lithium will be recovered by a separate pilot plant fed with waste from the tin operations. The timing is a little vague but it sounds like the lithium pilot will be available in Q3 and they will start the lithium recovery in Q3 for a period of 6 months. I don't think we will see much lithium revenue this year, its a pilot only and it will take some time for them to optimise the metallurgy so they can have a product and then find a customer. I'm not really that interested in the tantalum, if it comes its a bonus but full details are in this RNS

https://www.investegate.co.uk/afritin-mining-ltd--atm-/rns/by-product-and-metallurgical-process-development/202111180700027468S/

Hoping exactly that Wiseys. Then perhaps we will see margins approach those of AFX... in 2024?

Key difference between the two that I have noticed is the customer base. The most recent AFX number of customers was 754 versus AGFX 1241. So AFX has much larger customers and more revenue per customer. And industry breadth is also greater at AFX, which has only 18% exposure to financials compared to 40% at AGFX.

I also made a little top up this morning. Volume, although still minimal, seems to have improved over the last week. Looks like we might have a floor at 50-55p and upside potential of up to 80p. UK retail conditions have declined and taken a lot of companies down with it but AD has a positive outlook and has never been in better health

The year end is 31 March and last year the TU was early April, one can only assume the same for this year. 10.5 months through the year I wonder if they have any idea what the full year number will be? Peers which are performing better, are better at updating and have premium valuations gave us this info...

- AFX TU 3 weeks before their 31 December year end confirmed expectations to be exceeded, now that is class and speaks volumes about their ability to manage the business. The update in January confirmed a 67% increase in revenue
- EQLS TU 3 weeks before year end confirmed a 51% increase in revenue and confirmed 52% in January

So in the current market every company should be nailing it but based on expectations (which the company never confirmed are appropriate in their last update) AGFX revenue is expected to grow 29% and that seems to be in doubt given the H1 miss indicating some stalling momentum. And that 29% is after a significant increase in costs: new office, new IT and a 35% increase in headcount but only a 27% increase in client numbers... makes you wonder how scalable is this business and when they truly generate a return on new staff investment

As a reminder of the most recent 'outlook' this is what AGFX posted... hints at a warning not to look too short term because they will continue to increase costs now for longer term revenue growth

"As the macro-economic environment continues to improve, the Company's confidence in a sustained return to growth increases. The Group's unswerving long-term strategic focus has technology at its core and it will continue to evolve its proposition, products and footprint to meet the growing needs of its client base and the changing way they interact with Argentex. "

Its rare to see a company's SP at a record low, most companies and industries have staged some sort of post pandemic recovery. Are we sleepwalking into a horrible result? The forecasts looks great but confidence in achieving these numbers is very low and it looks like Numis has been steadily lowering revenue expectations for this year