Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Probably didn’t matter how good the results were I think a lot will have been waiting for results to close positions, could end up red here regardless of the decent performance

Volume driven yes but there has been an explosion in unit costs over the last 2 years, whichever way this is measured. Hopefully with the contribution from Vulcan and PGM improvements we will see these costs come down a little, or stabilise at worst. And volatility in freight rates makes this one very difficult for us to get our heads around

Had a couple of days to digest the PEA and biggest thing for me is sheer scale of the plan. Everything is much larger than previously flagged via broker notes, starting with capex which is more the double, production, revenue and EBITDA all wildly higher, some from higher price but mostly from scale. I think its natural for the market to meet these plans with a degree of caution, or even scepticism, hence a subdued reaction. But the opportunity for us is to wait and watch and continue to add as each element becomes derisked, starting with lithium. Lithium metallurgy success this year will see ATM double based on other projects. Can't believe we get all this opportunity for sub-£100m

Here is the pres. Pretty good results, cant see any flags really

https://www.hsshiregroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/FY21-Results-Deck-vFINAL.pdf

Indeed it is. The 17% against the remuneration policy is interesting
Perhaps I was being harsh on the market, I guess we did increase by 2.5% today

Can't argue with the 1.4x price, even after accounting for the plugging costs this seems like a pretty sound acquisition. They must be struggling to find any large acquisition targets given Oaktree's participation was intended for transactions valued at > $250m. By my rough calc this should add around 6p in post tax value value to the SP. No SP reaction... does the market does not think any value has been created?

They have really taken advantage of the move to AIM to step down on the governance. I'm hoping that they are ignoring shareholder expectations in order to save money on the RNS and focus on getting the business into shape

Headlines a bit spooky maybe but a lot moving in THS favour. Chrome prices are ridiculous right now for those that can get it to China. Chrome is easily the largest contributor to revenue at $265/t and especially with the promised uptick in production from Vulcan H2 should be huge for chrome. ZAR and oil have both tanked recently helping with costs and the USDGBP is close to a two low meaning our dividends in sterling have been given a boost. Will be most interested in how THS deals with the inflationary environment and in particular how this freight situation in SA and China will impact costs

First Tin listed a couple of weeks ago as well. Has some decent projects in solid jurisdictions but less than 100k in contained metal, a MCap of £80m and I cant see them producing anything until 2024. The presentation below does a decent dive into global tin projects and production. I'm sure the prospectus will have even more info if anyone is really interested in going deeper into the world of tin but my overall impression is that supply will be very tight for the next 3 years until the new projects begin production

https://firsttin.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/First-Tin-LSE-1SN-Presentation-April-2022.pdf

Demand is looking wobbly across a host of metals but supply is facing a lot of headwinds as well. Check out Amplats PGM quarterly results from yesterday. Severe weather, Covid and supply chain issues are hampering production in SA. No mention of power reliability but no doubt this is also relevant. In this context Tharisa Q2 results and commitment to guidance looks pretty good. Chrome prices are having a rare moment in the sun no doubt reflecting supply risk

https://www.angloamericanplatinum.com/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-American-Group/Platinum/press-releases/2022/q1-production-report-2022.pdf

Not much to talk about there really. My wild price ambitions fell well short. No increase in net cash, was there a tax payment this quarter? I spotted one in Q1 21 but no mention of it this time
Materials sector taking a battering today

Yes very few opportunities for tin exposure. There is a sprinkling of projects (eg Elementos, Cornish metals) but nothing close to near term production

Alphamin have put themselves up for sale. Will be interesting to see if and where any interest comes from and if any implications for ATM. The article mentions private equity and China as being likely bidders. Alphamin produced nearly 11kt of tin in 2021 and has a market cap of $1.8bn.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-19/alphamin-said-to-kick-off-sale-of-one-of-world-s-top-tin-miners?sref=ZoyErlU1

PDL trading update today announced a 37.6% increase in prices for their Q3 (GEMD Q1) v Q2. Hopefully we see something similar in tomorrow's TU. GEMD Q421 prices were around 15% higher than Q121, and if, like PDL, Q122 is 35% higher than Q421, this could mean Q122 prices are 50% higher than Q121. We should see a a big bump to EBITDA and cash flow

https://www.investegate.co.uk/petra-diamonds-ltd--pdl-/prn/trading-update/20220420070000P0E5A/

A couple of interesting comments from the AGM a few weeks ago. Not sure if anyone has looked at the website recently but it looks pretty impressive

https://cloudcoco.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/AGM-March-2022-Shareholder-Questions-and-Answers.pdf

Daily volume is limited so I'm assuming/hoping the buyback is there to take advantage of any drops rather than steady daily buying. Mopping up the free float is not really positive for the SP beyond the very short term. I don't think its fair to say the board have 'sat on their hands', the company has had a net debt position a number of times over the last year due to the timing of sales and have had to manage their way through the uncertainty in Africa. Only recently would they have become confident enough to say they have excess cash, considering the recent market improvements and the high cash flow profile of the next two years. There is a substantial increase in stripping and capex in 2024 which then needs to be funded

Agree with your comments lemonade311, have now exited my position completely at a painful loss but will live to fight another day

Thanks from me also Bobby. That article really highlights why I have chosen CLCO. MH really hasn't taken a step wrong since taking over and the ambition and plan to get there is clear. This sentence is particularly interesting:

"Speaking to CRN, CloudCoCo boss Mark Halpin said the IDE Connect business is now breaking even and even expects it to turn a profit in the second half of 2022."

I'm surprised they have done this so quickly and might be an indicator of another acquisition taking place sooner than what I expected. There must be a plethora of acquisition opportunities out there and if management can establish their business turnaround potential then the sky is the limit really

I've been buying this recently, the inevitable drift of small cap aim between newsflow is a top up opportunity

I guess we will never know why they got rid of Numis. I don't think rebasing expected revenue growth to a more achievable and lower level is really what the market wants. Growth of 23% sounds ok but its peers AFX and EQLS have both done around 50%. And AGFX has needed to increase its headcount 44% from 69 to 100 to do so. I think that the combination of these two factors means that profit will be below the 2020 level. I liquidated most of my holding this morning, this result has proven the company lacks operational leverage

I wouldn't say that 34.5 v expectation of 36.3 is broadly in line. That 31 in additional hires will hit the bottom line