Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Possible offer is pretty weak, can't see this being a done deal. 33% premium to pre offer price and less than 4x EBITDA, despite growth prospects. Top 5 holders account for 50% alone, no mention of whether they will support this price. I thought DX could hit 50p on its own steam, within 18 months

The Board will provide a further update on trading with the announcement of full year results, expected in early October 2023.

Ashtead Q1 trading update read across. UK rental grew at 11% for quarter ended July, however UK market softening, so FY expectations reduced from 10%< to high single digits

Consensus for Speedy only expecting 4% revenue growth to £458m in 2024.

I would expect they would need to do better to stay on track for their target of £650m by 2028, the 4 year required CAGR 2024-2028 is 9% so they should be getting closer to 10% p.a. Lofty aspiration but not very realistic if only 4% in year 1.

https://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/ashtead-group/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=664&newsid=1713231

Been waiting for a dip for a top up but no such luck, shouldn't complain though, its been pretty much straight line up from the start of June.

I would expect revenue to be £60m higher by 2025 just assuming they take on 30% of Tufnell's revenue. Then they have the improved margins, which I am pretty confident about because we are already seeing it being achieved. Since 2020 margins have increased from 1% to close to 7%, an ultimate margin of 10% would not be unthinkable given one less competitor. We may see a delay in achieving the ultimate margin target given integration and one offs but cash flow will see a boost.

For a company with a 5 year EBITDA > 20%, rising margins and solid decent revenue growth its on a very undemanding valuation. I think 50p is as good a target as any!

Looks like a loss is possible for 2024. If net income comes out at the low point of £250m, and costs are £240m, and variable remuneration (assuming continuation of 2023 level) is £16m then that gives an operating loss of £6m. At £280m its an operating profit of £24m. Its a good business but the (almost structurally) low market volatility, a pretty good chance of a recession in multiple end markets and higher interest rates means the company can't offer much upside for 2024. With 7 months to go this year there is still a good chance of more forecast reductions if the macroeconomic indicators keep going the wrong way

No liquidity!! The entire small cap sector has ground to a halt, its pretty much loathed by institutions. Summer vacations aren't helping. If you want to sell anything of size now be prepared to take a hit.

On fundamentals the company has never been stronger, debt has been reduced incredibly quickly and the valuation is rock bottom.

Apart from the new build sector, which I don't think HSS has a huge exposure to (largest customer is a civil engineer), the end markets are pretty robust and they have a coherent strategy to win market share from smaller competitors

Hang in there

Highly likely some exposure given roads and HS2...Speedy has 1,000s of customers. Bad debts will be an expected cost in this industry, particularly given construction focus

Someone sure is desperate to dump that 200k for 31.50…

Cobus

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/illegal-mining-will-not-be-tolerated-on-gold-project-site-pan-african-2023-08-04

Really surprised & impressed at their speed, striking while the iron is hot. SP is close to a multi year high of 2021 but the business is in much better shape than back then

Well a month on from the trading statement no sign of a placing. With the exception of that note from Liberum everyone seems to be scratching their head about the drop. There does seem to be some nervousness around the final dividend to be declared next month , which should be around 3.5p, however this is only around £12m in cash flow to be paid in October, plenty of time to improve the thin cash buffer. Saw this note the other day which is a very good summary of the company and the situation

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/dwf-group-mega-cheap-on-a-10-86-yield-and-5-43-p-e/amp/

"My View – Possibly One Of The Cheapest Quality Stocks that I have seen for quite a while"

Well whoever sold their 1,000 shares at 0802 wasn't impressed ;-)

Quite a task indeed and certainly a lot to take in from that RNS. Revenue will certainly get a big boost. I'm hoping that this section below means that they have maintained their price discipline and not compromised on their strategy for the sake of more revenue

"has taken on over 550 customers on mutually agreeable commercial terms. Maintaining high customer service levels remains a priority."

Don’t see how the largest competitor going bust could be bad for business. I believe DX will maintain their price discipline and win some of those customers based on service offering. Not a peep in the press about any potential buyers of Tuffnells so looks like that’s it

Must be pretty manic in the DX sales offices today. Tuffnells customers have been told that they can collect their own undelivered items from depots. Can't imagine there is much other choice out there for bigger contracts like Evans and Wickes

Interesting link with comments from Tufnells customers which confirms that DX will pick up some new business, even if there is no administration. Might see a bump on Monday as this news digests over the weekend

https://www.trucknetuk.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=174940

Good summary there. Connect were so desperate to get rid of it they gave it away and also provided the buyers with financing. Looks like they couldn't turn it around. This is bad news for those Tufnells employees but DX in prime position to pick up that business

https://nnn.ng/uk-logistics-company-tuffnells-prepares-for-administration/

The Zeus statement seems much more bullish than Liberum, a small miss on sales and profit but improvements to next year and no mention of leverage or cash conversion challenges despite a ratio of 1.6x compared to the covenant of 1.75x. A dividend of 9% next year is high enough to suggest that this is not sustainable. I guess we will see, a temporary covenant waiver from banks would help, would they pitch a fundraise at below 50p given institutional backing? Otherwise next news in July

Any idea on what ongoing stripping costs are once the mine is in operation? Tharisa mine is a decent sum, given the ratio at Karo is much higher that spending must be formidable. By my cals at a basket of $1,500, cash costs of $1,200 the outlook for this project looks bleak, draining cash until break even at the end of calendar 2024. $2000/oz basket looked pretty good and I suppose a lot can happen in two years to the price but the belief/hope that the current basket price will recover to these levels, when palladium is at $1,400 and Pt about to drop below $1,000, is a frightening assumption

I hear rumours of a covenant breach and equity fundraising to remedy from a broker... sentiment here certainly seems poor, not helped by the delayed trading statement and the failure to mention profit... This share is close to covid lows right now which doesn't make sense considering the underlying performance and fundamentals of the business.

What are they hiding within that trading statement? Share price action suggests fundraising at 50p is imminent, can't really explain it otherwise. Whitelaw consideration shares subject to lengthy lock in so its not them, not sure if any previous acquisition shares are being sold

There seems to be some truly desperate selling here to be dumping at such a bombed out valuation