Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Might explain that strange gap up this morning…only a pound or so off record highs now. This has been a great stock for me in a very average year

Thats a 1% reduction

Not expecting bad numbers, trading update in mid November confirms decent performance. Maybe they are having trouble adding up their 2022 forecasts, but Speedy reported 7% YoY growth for their Q4, if HSS could replicate that (for their Q122) it would be a very good start to 2022

Well no news, though Speedy had a trading update. Very prompt by them, less than a week after year end, and pretty good result, not much market reaction so far. We are more than 3 months after year end and still not even an update

https://www.investegate.co.uk/speedy-hire-plc--sdy-/rns/year-end-trading-update/202204050700032092H/

We could maybe get a 0.5p dividend! I think they will hold off until H122, it will take management some time to recover from the scars of excessive debt levels to be confident enough to start paying out the cash

Are we expecting something soon? Thought it wouldn't be until the end of the month, at the very last minute like last year.
I'm hoping they include the 2022 trading update given they will be 1/3 of the way though the year

But yes I agree volume is definitely significant today, I spotted a few chunky trades and today is the highest day of volume since the negative reaction to the interim results in November. Perhaps anticipation of a decent update? EQLS and AFX were both received well, the sector has some tailwinds, but AGFX sales growth has proven far inferior to peers. Feels like some basement prices here but I'm not adding until I see some numbers

Nothing goes down in a straight line

Miserable looking chart!! Don't think we can even blame the Jani overhang anymore. Last year there was a trading update first week of April so news may be expected soon. Its been 5 months since we've heard a peep. I don't think even Harry can be feeling enthusiastic about the last year

Green every day for 3 weeks, don't see that very often.

EQLS published some decent results today and has made a positive start to 2022, positive for AFX's own transaction volumes

https://www.investegate.co.uk/equals-group-plc--eqls-/rns/final-results/202203300700044698G/

That remaining cash is required to pay the directors salaries for the next year. Who is going to pay for the discovery of the remaining 90% of the deposit and are they going to stump out the cash based on your intuition about the size of the deposit or based on the existing results which are pretty woeful. They completely missed on the last two drill holes which were conveniently omitted as if they never happened. I don't think they know where to drill the next holes. I can't believe they even managed a JORC with that cut off

It doesn't matter what the in situ is worth, how could 120kt of copper at 0.19% be economical to mine? It would require a giant open pit from which you would normally extract at least 3 times the ore. Theres no way that will even get close to PFS and they don't have the money for another drill campaign

The odds are indeed stacked against us. All you can do is ignore the noise and exercise discipline in buying on the pullbacks rather than the spikes. It's not unreasonable to expect a dip based on todays news. It has made me realise how exceptional Q3 was in terms of grade and costs. Management are doing a good job with the plant all things considered, it seems to be running at absolute full throttle. The news is around Phase 1 is disappointing but not unexpected. In December construction and commissioning was expected in Q2 but now we only have construction completing in Q3. This could mean a 6 month delay. And possibly longer considering the pervasive global supply chain challenges

Hi Swatton, I believe the revenue numbers you have quoted are before the refiner fee payable by THS to Implats? If so you will need to deduct around 15% from your 382.6 for 325.5 in H1 revenue. Consensus revenue is $677m but I don't think this reflects the positive YTD movement in chrome prices.

I have costs of $260m which is close to yours but am prepared for the worst there. Assuming prices stay where they are am expecting a bumper H2, particularly from chrome given very robust chrome prices and impact of additional very low cost Vulcan tonnage, but I see that China inventories are starting to rise rapidly so am watching prices

Solid results. I would say the only downside was the bad debt which surprised me a little at £2.8m.
P/E is high and sales multiple of 7+ is very punchy but growth has been phenomenal and margins exceptional. From 2014 to 2021 revenue CAGR of 59.4%. PBT margin of 43%!! That revenue per client is also very interesting, it ballooned by 30% this year.

Growth is expected to slow this year to 'only' 15-20% at this point. But like 2021 management most likely have guided conservatively for 2022. if you look at the revenue forecast for 2021 in March 2021 it was £55m compared to a final result of £77m. If they keep delivering at the same rate we could see a cycle of upgrades leading to a number well clear of £100m which would give a P/E below sub 20

Since IPO the consistency of performance is unrivalled and AFX justifiably commands a premium valuation. I have been buying as much as I can on this dip, I expect this to be double the current price 2 years from now

Back down to (only) $45,000/t.
It was over 50k for such a short time I didn't even get a chance to update my cash flow model

No doubt David Price has pretty sound knowledge about the permitting process, reliable drilling contractors and rates etc etc in Australia but what does he and his team know about Greece?
Take a look where Greece sits on the corruption perceptions index, number 59 (a couple of spots above Belarus) v Australia number 11. Much different way of doing business in Greece. Nevertheless I admit a £4m market cap owning this project does seem very appealing on first glance

Sorry that was only 2 other tenderers. But a good day to win a zinc deposit with zinc hitting $4,500/ton. And those grades so far are juicy. We have no clue how big this thing is but I'm sure the company has done a fag packet based on the 170 holes done so far. Might need to keep our eyes open for the follow up interviews to get a few more facts around this, particularly how much more drilling is required to establish the JORC

Junior mining sector is so unloved right now I remember the day when news like this would have sent the SP up 200%

They don't have the money for drilling.. only pre drilling studies. A little sceptical here how a £4m market cap Australian company with no experience in Europe can win this tender. And with only 3 other tenderers is it such a good project? Or is this a case of knowing the right people and getting lucky? What is the connection?

The Company has sufficient funds available to prioritise a review of the historical drill core, submit a work programme, determine the feasibility of reopening the portal/decline, establish a community advisory committee, and the commencement of an environmental baseline study.

at a record high, $46,600/t. By my calcs every $1,000 increase in the tin price adds $600k in annual operating cash flow

Plenty of gas companies in the US have no chance of funding their asset retirement obligations. They will need to sell to a company like DEC who can finance these retirements at relatively low multiples