Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

A few chainsaws will be going out next week

Fair enough, a lot of nervousness out there, can't blame anyone for bailing now. The final point about lack of leadership I would dispute. I think Steve Ashmore has done an outstanding job, he inherited a business crippled by debt and with paper thin margins meaning they could barely service interest. It has taken some time but he has
- sold businesses for a very good price (total consideration of £125m),
- reduced debt to well below their target,
- refinanced remaining debt at an incredibly attractive rate,
- rationalised the network and substantially reduced costs,
- transformed the business into a lean, platform driven business with very respectable margins and strong cash flow

I'm going to be patient and hang in there for the payoff for all their hard work

Yep forgot about Blackrock and the impact that selling has had on liquidity. I'm seeing that in a few other small caps I follow, looks like funds are net sellers of small caps rather than buyers in general, probably in anticipation of the expected spending squeeze on the UK consumer over the next year (or longer)

1.57/1.86 for £2,500, 20% spread yikes

The entire UK retail sector is in the doldrums, food, clothes, crafts whatever. AD has been compared to Games Workshop with its loyal core of customers but even the mighty GAW is not far off pre pandemic levels. UK small cap retail is an ugly place to be right now. I realised that Singer EBITDA of 6.9 is probably post IFRS-16 while ANG of 'at least 5' is pre IFRS. So the two are much closer when on the same basis. A surprise would require £7.5m, but even that may not move the SP given the non existent liquidity

That makes sense. H221 EBITDA was £2.9m, a minimum of £0.6m this year seems incredibly conservative. However in mid-October they would have had good visibility of Q3 performance so if it was down then it seems prudent to assume Q4 would be the same. There seems to be quite a mismatch between mgmt saying 'at least £5m' and Singer saying £6.9m

Company seems well funded to me, don't know why there would be talk of an imminent raise if you had bothered to do the numbers. My guess is that they had £1.5m on hand at December and they will probably look for more funds after the Plateau drilling results are made available

£1.5m Cash 30/06/21
+£0.9 July 21 Raise wth mystery institution at 0.8p
(£0.4) H2 21 admin expenses
(£0.30) Copperhead I'm guessing the 5 drill holes for Copperhead cost $A200/metre x 2500 metres = $A500k/£280k
(£0.2m) Lab/other expenses (guess)
£1.5 December cash estimate

A lot of news about how low global copper stocks are... and with all this geopolitical shuffling really highlights the value of having an operation in an area with low political risk. I bought a few more today with copper knocking on the door of $10k. Not particularly interested in a takeover myself, the share price of an undervalued quality company will take care of itself one way or another

I think ATM will start to perform when some key Lithium milestones are ticked off: updated MRE and metallurgy work confirming battery grade of lithium, pre feasibility and possibly funding. Atlantic lithium has all these things and probably why MCAp is >£200m. ATM has more lithium potential 450koz v 330koz for AL.

I think AL is now substantially derisked with much of the value already priced in while ATM has more potential with a lot of news flow this year and being less advanced is more appealing to less risk averse investors so may take a bit of time. I'm happy for the SP to middle around 6p so I can really load up. AL doubled in the space of 2 months could see ATM do the same but just need to be patient until that happens

Anyone have any thoughts on sales expectations for H2 and FY22?

Consensus (Singer) looks to be £72.5m. H1 was £38.4m so this implies H2 of £34.1. This compares to H221 where sales were £35.5m but in that period stores were only open for collection for 53 days. It doesn't appear that stores being closed impacted sales very much but can't explain why sales would be expected to fall compared to last year.

In each of their updates this year Singer have been updating their expectations. Management are exceptionally cautious around future guidance and the SP seems to be anticipating underperformance so I think it's possible that we could see some upside surprise. Maybe thats just hope but momentum is definitely positive regarding sales growth and direction of gross margin

Going off expectations for EBITDA of £6.9m the valuation is incredibly undemanding. Using a MCAP of £41m, less cash of £20m gives an EV/EBITDA of around 3.5x. This seems incredibly low, probably reflecting the outlook for UK retail

Next week, 22 Feb
https://www.anglingdirect.co.uk/corporate/investors/financial-calendar/

15% in IG ISA after completing W8BN. Been with them for at least 7 years now, can't fault the service and I pay £3 per trade

Would recommend starting with the looong Tamesis note, its as good an estimate as any. You wont get anything official until they complete their feasibility studies

https://twitter.com/Afritin_Mining/status/1463115273670643715

I've run the numbers on HSS and it is trading at a significant valuation discount to its peers. Perhaps rightly so given the history of chronic underperformance. This could make it a value trap. Cheap stocks can easily become cheaper. But I don't think the market has caught on to the impact of the transformation on the cash flow outlook. I don't like to use the 'T' word but in this case I think its valid

The entire sector is in the doldrums and domestically driven UK stocks have all performed poorly...FTSE 250 YTD return is even worse than even the FANG index this year after barely breaking even last year. Look at the share prices of any UK based construction company, Speedy is trading at a post pandemic low, Ibstock, SIG have produced nothing and Wickes is at a post IPO low. They are all pretty good businesses on undemanding valuations but the forward looking view of the UK economy seems pretty pessimistic. Supply chain problems, Brexit and inflation are going to impact construction particularly hard. I think we'll see a few of the smaller companies folding over the next 1-2 years.

There needs to be something special about a company to do well in this environment. I'm looking for very solid results to get close to 20p by April, let alone 25p. Something like EBITDA closer to £75m, strong cash conversion and a bullish outlook supported by a strong performance in Q1 would help!!

I expect Europe to make a contribution in 2024, probably a bit far out for the average investor, but between now and then they should see sales continue to grow as they build market share through an enhanced digital offering, improved in store experience and stock availability. Supply chain wise they are probably being impacted like everyone else but probably not as badly as their smaller competitors. The stock is probably being thrown out with the rest of the sector but I think fishing will prove to be more resilient than fast fashion and consumer electronics

Not throwing this one back ScoobyDoo. I had sold out some time ago but bought back in after the cyber security incident threw up an opportunity. The company has a tonne of cash and a very attractive valuation. They are tightly managing costs and are confident enough in the business, particularly the digital element, that they don't need to do any acquisitions to continue to grow sales. The upside of the European expansion plan is significant, though these things go wrong as often as they succeed. That margin improvement and CAGR sales growth is admirable as well. I can't believe this is in the 50s.

But for potential investors, don't take my word for it, worth having a listen to them yourself if you haven't already

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJt3AIXb0Jc

Corrected and added EBITDA. Yes for 2022

Exit rate Mboepd = 139, less 7% natural decline =129
129mboepd = 265,000mcfe
265000 x $3.17mcfe = $840m revenue, $488m EBITDA hedged
265000 x $4 mcfe = $1.06bn revenue, $707m EBITDA unhedged

Consensus is for $1.19bn revenue and $484m EBITDA

If it was Tosca that should take them below 3% and hopefully the last time we hear from them. SP is inching inching higher on low volume.

Anyone else done these maths...
EBITDA of £75m
Capex of £35m
FCF of £40m
MCap of £122m
Net debt/EBITDA < 1.0x, will be closer to zero by the end of next year

A dividend of only £6m is a yield of 5%. Could easily be 10-15%

Mey MrG, great recovery, the last time we were at this level was on October 12th when that news around the US crackdown on methane emissions hit the SP. Hopefully now the market concerns have been adequately soothed to get us back to pre Bloomberg article around 125p